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Oscar betting advice

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Posted: #1
I have one local that is still offering Argo at +700 even though most off-shores have it at -400 and -500.  Should I absolutely pound it?  I already have it at +300 from weeks ago. 

From what I read, it seems to be a good bet due sweeping the Guild awards, and winning best picture across the pond last night.  The winner of the Directors Guild has went on to win best picture 63 out of 66 times.  This is because the 1500 who vote in the directors Guild also vote in the Academy awards.

The other Oscar bets I locked in some time ago were:

Jennifer Lawrence for best actress at -175

Tommy Lee Jones supporting actor at +145

So my question is, am I missing something?  I understand Argo may not win, but could one possibly pass up this line that is crazy off?

What gives me pause is the guy offering the line is a "props specialist."  He already knows all the information I have but is not changing the line to perhaps lure me and others to take the bait (so its not like this bookie doesn't know whats going on).  So any advice is appreciated.  Thanks!
 
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Posted: #2
It is a two-horse race.  Argo and Lincoln.

Lincoln WOULD NEVER win because it isn't left-leaning enough.

While Argo wouldn't be considered a leftist film, it has one of their own in it in Ben Affleck.

Translation?

Argo wins easily.

If he is absolutely offering +700, and that is not a mistake, then he is a total buffoon and you deserve to take his money.

Could Argo lose?  Of course, but the odds would say 95% chance it wins and I would be willing to bet a +700 prop at 95% chance of winning everytime.

GL.

Let us know what happens with the bet.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

It is a two-horse race.  Argo and Lincoln.

Lincoln WOULD NEVER win because it isn't left-leaning enough.

While Argo wouldn't be considered a leftist film, it has one of their own in it in Ben Affleck.

Translation?

Argo wins easily.

If he is absolutely offering +700, and that is not a mistake, then he is a total buffoon and you deserve to take his money.

Could Argo lose?  Of course, but the odds would say 95% chance it wins and I would be willing to bet a +700 prop at 95% chance of winning everytime.

GL.

Let us know what happens with the bet.


I was told tonight that his line was set at 5-1 so still a good line.  He says only 2 movies have ever won best pic without having the director of those films nominated for best director.  I already knew that so doesn't change my thinking.  My only decision is how much to bet it.

Thanks for the input. 
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

It is a two-horse race.  Argo and Lincoln.

Lincoln WOULD NEVER win because it isn't left-leaning enough.

While Argo wouldn't be considered a leftist film, it has one of their own in it in Ben Affleck.

Translation?

Argo wins easily.

If he is absolutely offering +700, and that is not a mistake, then he is a total buffoon and you deserve to take his money.

Could Argo lose?  Of course, but the odds would say 95% chance it wins and I would be willing to bet a +700 prop at 95% chance of winning everytime.

GL.

Let us know what happens with the bet.


By the way, do you have experience betting these awards?  You seem knowledgeable.  You like my other 2 bets?  I've never bet Oscars before. 
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:



By the way, do you have experience betting these awards?  You seem knowledgeable.  You like my other 2 bets?  I've never bet Oscars before. 

Don't know about the other two bets. The selectors play favorites with individual awards and are less biased on movie awards.

Don't care about your books' historical fact, these books DO NOT GET RAPED on these award show props. If Argo is the far and away -400 favorite, it's gonna take some snake oil and rookies in the selectors' drinks on the night they chose the winner for Argo to lose.

Good luck.
 
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Posted: #6
Argo up to -600 in some places now. Horribly weak field this year. Terrible year for mainstream blockbusters. Lincoln the only challenger to Argo, and remember what I said, Ben Affleck is a lefty pinko boot-humper who happens to have found a good stride so the lefty pinko boot-humpin' selectors will fawn over Argo.
 
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Posted: #7
Spielberg was get his cake's share by winning Best Director. Tis leaves the door for Argo Best Picture wide-open.

These props could be totally wrong though, so NOTHING IS SET IN GOLD. But a now -600 prop for plus-500 is something you're just gonna have to believe in.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

Spielberg was get his cake's share by winning Best Director. Tis leaves the door for Argo Best Picture wide-open.

These props could be totally wrong though, so NOTHING IS SET IN GOLD. But a now -600 prop for plus-500 is something you're just gonna have to believe in.


I was originally going to put 500 on it, then I saw yesterday that the line went down to -600, so I went 1k on it.  Good luck to me I guess.  Its far, far, far more than I usually bet.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:



I was originally going to put 500 on it, then I saw yesterday that the line went down to -600, so I went 1k on it.  Good luck to me I guess.  Its far, far, far more than I usually bet.


The line your book is offering you no choice.  Hope he pays.
 
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Posted: #10
Good luck with your wager. I was wondering, if your bookie has Argo set at +500, what are his odds on Lincoln?
 
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Posted: #11
You could always hedge with a Lincoln pick elsewhere.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Zapper1:

Good luck with your wager. I was wondering, if your bookie has Argo set at +500, what are his odds on Lincoln?


I am going through my local who has a guy he is laying it off with at +500, so I did not ask what his odds are on Lincoln. 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Topo:

You could always hedge with a Lincoln pick elsewhere.


I did.  I took Lincoln at +400 for $300 on sportsbook.com.   Ill either win $200 if Lincoln wins or $4,800 if Argo wins.  Of course if something else wins I'm screwed or if the local book doesn't pay (which I feel like is a possibility). 
 
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Posted: #14
You need to pound that Argo line.  Your bookie must think he knows something the rest of the world doesn't.  Lincoln has an outside chance, but it's slim.

I have J Lawrence as well for best actress.  Not a lock, but worth paying -200. 

No feelings on Supporting Actor.  It's a wide open field. 
 
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Posted: #15
Good luck on Argo.

Let us know if your local pays out.
 
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Posted: #16
damn thought Spielberg would win best director
 
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Posted: #17
Did he pay out?
 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Osirus13:

damn thought Spielberg would win best director

Even I underestimated the leftist bias thinking Spielberg would win for Lincoln. 
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