St Kilda v Fremantle

Freo +39.5 - Finals match tonight for both teams and that usally means Saints grab a nice 4 goal lead and then decide to shut up shop. They are up against a team that has a fairly decent midfield and I can't see the likes of Montagna, Del Santo, Goddard and Ray outdoing Fyfe, Barlow. Hill and even Ballantyne who'll push into the middle. The ruck duel should also be interesting because stoppages will favor MvEvoy but I reckon Clarke has him beat for pure athletiscm. Riewoldt back won't make much difference as the Saints will again revert back to playing predictable footy and the loss of Dawson means Pavlich will be the one bloke for Freo who is likely to be the difference. Fremantle aren't a good travelling side but I expect the long trip back from Brisbane for the Saints will even it out.

I can see this game being quite a bit more high scoring than expected as Fremantle will be the team that jump out of the blocks, I even like them to win this game but I'll take the 6½ goal start just to be safe.

Good luck

Ross Lyon

Pick

Quote Originally Posted by nbird33:

Have Stk 1-19 & 20-39...

GL:

yeh I do them often but where I go wrong is I choose my least favourite margin say Saints 20-39 and I parlay it with either tennis or NRL to get nice odds and then risk less than half of what I will on my main play of Saints 1-19 points.

I'll usually get fucked as Saints win by 42 or my other play was incorrect Prefer just going with instincts from now on but it's a good time of the year to bet AFL. Good luck, If I had to play that one I'd likely go with Saints 20-39 points

Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

The Dockers do seem to have a good look about them tonight

dunno, they still very, very depleted. Of their best 22 they are missing through injury - De Boer, Griffin, Hayden, Sandilands, Morabito, Mundy, Palmer, Walters and Crowley. Almost half the list aren't running out there tonight and you'll see a near full strength St Kilda (no Hayes) really struggle to put this Freo team away.

yeh Fremantle looking good now. I also reckon Pavlich started to get into the game that quarter and Fyfe with only 7 touches till halftime they just a shadow of the side they were in 2008, 2009 and I think Fremantle exposed them that period.

Line is now down to +20.5

bad luck folks after averaging 24 points each quarter, the Dockers decide to score 2 behinds and screw us over....you gotta love it

nahh I reckon Fremantle's injuries are gonna kill them off this year unfortunately. If they were fully fit and going I reckon they'd knock over the Saints. Seriously though, anyone who rates St Kilda is kidding themselves...all this talk about them making a statement in the finals even if they improve another 25% by September they are going to get beaten at the MCG by a younger team that takes the game on and their likely opponents will be either Freo (with Sandilands and a few others), North, Sydney, Bombers or even Melbourne.

Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

At end of 3Q time I figured the Freo cover was a gimme This is the problem when playing good teams like Pies, Cats and Hawks and you back the underdog. The bad teams generally just fall into a heap in the last 20min

ye exactly, and the other main factor this year from the stats is that the new interchange rule has seen teams go on a run of unanswered goals. Teams have no answer once 2 or 3 goals are kicked in a row and it's a weird stat but I guess it shows the difference between kids getting a chance at senior level and the seasoned mature bodies outlasting them in the final quarters of matches. Really tough beat that one because let's be totally honest...we were on the right side but sometimes you need a little bit of luck and we got beaten by 2 behinds