Pick: Minnesota -3
MTSU's 2009 record of 10-3 looks really good but then we have to keep in mind that they play in the Sun Belt Conference. A Sun Belt schedule consists of southern schools and a middle-of-the-pack team from a major conference; not an overwhelming resume year in and out.
Insert Dwight Dasher and this line could've been -3 the other way.
Anyone know if Mr. Dasher won any money playing poker? Maybe he has an online poker account? I've no doubt he could make more money in poker than a career in football.
Any time you have a major conference battling a smaller conference, the battle in the trenches could be the tale of the tape. The difference here is the massive Gophers O-Line versus the smaller Blue Raiders D-Line. The average height and weight of the Minnesota offensive linemen is 6-feet 4-inches, 303 pounds. The average height and weight of the MTSU defensive linemen is 6-foot 2-inches and 258 pounds.
I've no doubt we'll be seeing heavy doses Bennett and Eskridge for this mis-match up front. Besides, the strength of the Blue Raiders' defense is their secondary. Add the fact that two of the Gophers' most productive receivers have graduated and the team is now left with 3 junior wide-outs.
Also expect MTSU to run a lot as well since Phillip Tanner is 100% healthy and back on the offensive side of the ball.
Some game notes for both schools:
Minnesota is 88-32-6 all-time in season-openers for a winning percentage of .722. But only 12-16-1 all-time when opening a season in a road game.
Minnesota is 11-1 against current members of the Sun Belt Conference.
MTSU has an overall mark of 57-36-2 in season-opening games, including a 1-3 mark under Rick Stockstill.
MTSU is 0-2 all-time against the Big Ten.
Minnesota disadvantage(s): MTSU is better in the Turnover Margin category. Again, the Blue Raiders have very good defensive backs. Not a good sign for a gunslinger like Adam Weber. The Gophers aren't all that bad in the turnover battle but its Weber's miscues that makes that number not as good as it can be.
Mojo play & fade on:
- Backing Weber and Bennett's good mojo. The Gophers' running game should be productive against a smaller defense.
- Fading Kilgore's bad mojo and suspect offensive line. Thrown into the fire and wolves, i see Kilgore making more mistakes than Weber. The MTSU offensive linemen have bad mojo so i highly doubt they can protect Kilgore; which in essence will force the young JUCO-transfer QB into costly mistakes.
BOL & cheers!