Your Down Under 2011...

After winning the cancer council classic (aka a stupid pointless start to the tour which counts towards nothing and which none of the top sprinters give 2 shits about) Matt Goss has shortened from $11 to $4 for the overall win... Anyone who takes these odds is an idiot...

Mark cavendish has blown out from $5 to $11 for the overall win after a poor showing in the CCC... But seriously did anyone ever think he was gonna give 100% and waste his energy when he can be saving it for his big showdown with greipel in the stages which actually count... I have read reports which say that cav has improved on his climbing which he will need... Cav may be lacking some fitness so early in the season but I'll risk that and $11 seems to be great value in my opinion... I'll be backing him E/W...


Overall Win - Mark Cavendish @ $11.00
Overall Podium Finish - Mark Cavendish @ $3.00


I'm currently looking at stage 1 at the moment... Wil post plays soon...

Also I'm wondering why we havent heard a peep about the TDU from the cycling wager king Mr Bolar???

Adding

Overall Win - Simon Gerrans @ $34.00
Overall Podium Finish - Simon Gerrans @ $9.00

No doubt Cav and Greipel are favs for the first stage victory but there are other good riders capable of causing the upset... Robbie McEwen looks in great order to me and he is always good for a top3 finish however I think he does have the chance for the win particularly after watching him in the CCC...

Stage 1...

Winner - Robbie McEwen @ $19.00
Podium Finish - Robbie McEwen @ $4.60

I will also back Cav here... I think he will look to send a message early... He has the best lead out train in the world and they should be able to give him every chance for the win...

Winner - Mark Cavendish @ $3.00

Unofficial Stage 1 Results

1 Matt Goss (HTC-Highroad)
2 Andre Greipel (Omega Pharma-Lotto)
3 Robbie McEwen (Team Radioshack)


Ok so mark cavendish riding lead out for matt goss... Ok well my cavendish overall winner bet is now totally fucked... I dont understand why mark cavendish even came to australia if he aint riding for stage victories???

Goss vs. Greipel for overall honours...

goodluck with your plays.

still early in the season but for the Belgian opener "omloop het nieuwsblad" im keeping my eyes on Lars Boom. But anything can happen till then...

Bad luck Boydy

Sorry, but I've been busy, hence my plays aren't posted.

Cavendish is only after a stage win. Cavendish has no chance to get over WIllunga and sprint it with the best.

Goss was always HTC's GC man. Goss was value at the start of the Tour E/W @ $9/$3 considering his form over the last few months. HTC knew it, Goss knew it, Cavendish knew it. They were always riding for Goss.

Cavendish is good for a stage win on the final stage. If Goss's lead is secured heading into that final stage, someone will protect Goss in the peloton whilst the rest of the team will try and line up Cav for a victory.

Also, HTC's tactic is Goss in front with Cav on his wheel to stop the other sprinters from coming over top. If other sprinters get through, Cav will go up and take the win, if they don't, Cav will let Goss take the win.

They want that tactic sorted out for the Tour De France.

Is Boom targeting that race?

FYI Boydy, I was on Cav for the win yesterday as I expected he would get his victory he wanted out of the way early on and then ride for Gossy, but it didn't happen like that because I didn't know it was a bit uphill. As soon as it hit the hill, Cavendish dropped back and couldn't handle it. Cav is good for a stage win today, friday or sunday.

I watched the highlights last night on SBS and I couldn't spot Cav anywhere towards the end of the stage... It looked to me like he was riding well up the train... Though In an interview I did read that goss said Cav would take his wheel... Was the finish too much for cav yesterday or wat?...

I didn't get to put my bets on for todays stage but goin on yesterday I cant see anyone getting the jump on matt goss...

Also I'll eat my words and apologise to anyone who did take the $4 for goss... The info I was going on was totally wrong... It's ok though cos I've already won my money back through McEwen taking 3rd place in yesterdays stage...

Yeah I had a feeling that it was abit too much for him yesterday... But isn't todays finish slightly uphill aswell?... Do ya think he still wins today?... Or more likely Cav for the win friday or sunday... Going off your reasoning I think he will go for the stage on sunday after goss has sufficient time advantage for willunga... Even though goss should handle the hils ok I'd still say he'd want as much time in hand as possible...

Yeah not sure who wins today. It will be someone from HTC. Either Goss or Cavendish. Now that Goss has got a four second lead in the overall, the plan will be the same as yesterday.

Renshaw will lead Goss out the best he can. Cavendish will sit on his wheel. If someone looks like overpowering Goss, Cavendish will come out of his slipstream to win the stage.

The final 1700 metres is straight road. Not sure about the hill, but don't think it's as bad as yesterday.

Will be interesting to see who lost time today.

Goss was held up in the first crash but got back on but did Greipel?

Could be a race between McEwen and Goss.

Overall Winner markets between sportingbet and the TAB are strange... Sportingbet has Simon Gerrans @ $9 while the TAB has him a $31 chance...

I'm unsure what to think of todays stage... The profiles supplied have all been wrong so far and todays shows a 10% climb at the end of the stage...

Stage 4

Winner - Matt Goss @ $3.00  (If the stage is a flat finish)

Winner - Michael Matthews @ $26.00  (If the finish is indeed a 10% climb)