Posted:
#1
After a severe analysis, this is my pick and this is my argument regarding the 1st game of the semifinals.
We know that Spain has not been playing 100%. They are playing half-gas. They get to the break with a lot of equality with their rivals, with the feeling that they might even have missed a match.
There are no reliable shooters. One day is Rubio, another day is Sergio Rodríguez, or even Marc Gasol, who can solve the ballot.
But the games are being taken out. There is much quality for it. In all positions. These are the averages of Spain in the final phase:
vs Turkey -> 46.0% Tc (56.7 T2 / 33.3 T3) (73-56)
vs Germany -> 48.3% Tc (54.0 T2 / 40.0 T3) (72-84)
As we see, there is a certain regularity. And keep in mind that both Turkey and Germany are two primarily defensive teams.
These are the averages of Slovenia:
vs Ukraine -> 41.3% Tc (45.5 T2 /31.6 T3) (79-55)
vs Latvia -> 50.8% Tc (61.3 T2 /39.3 T3) (103-97)
Big difference, right? Interesting that against Ukraine, Slovenia, a team that averages 89.7 pp, could not exceed 80 points. (Ukraine is a more defensive court team)
The idea is clear. Slovenia will test the defense of Spain, the best of the Championship. And they're going to have it difficult. Because against Latvia were 39 times! to the line of personnel, and Spain is the team that less fouls make (15.0 pp)
I also do not think that Doncic make a match like the last one. First because the players of the selection already know him to play together in Real Madrid, and 2º because despite being a prodigy, he does not have enough experience to overcome Rubio, San Emeterio or Juancho Hernangómez, defenders much better than those of Latvia. And Anthony Randolph is not ready for this big type of matches with such close defenses. Goran Dragic is going to be very lonely.
Where does Spain have an advantage?
In defense, and in the paint. Slovenia has much worse defense than Germany, for example. The Gasol brothers must dominate a weaker interior game.
It is true that Slovenia play very fast in transition, but Spain also knows how to play well. Anyway the match will not be a level of annotation as against Latvia, Spain defends very well and probably Slovenia will be below 75 points.
Finally add that Slovenia has a +/- total of 65.7 (105.1 efficiency), for 125.0 (115.1 eff) of Spain. It is a big difference, indicating that Spain has a closet fund that Slovenia does not have.
Luck
Spain - 8
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@DeanNba
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