Hello Everyone,
I’m back and I’ve found the first huge play of the season. Quick update since last year, I’ve drastically evolved my methods and models this season to include more defensive data as well as home or road performance data. I also did an analysis of last season’s over/unders and I found that the majority of games go under. In fact on average an over/under of 110 should go under approximately 41.89% of the time. However, I also found that O/U’s are slightly less predictable than spreads so I prefer to go bigger on spread then O/U’s. Enough talk here are this week’s picks:
1. Tampa Bay Storm +7.5 (19.43)
The number (19.43) refers to the difference between my line and current betting line. I believe Tampa Bay should be favored by -11.93 in tonight’s games. This means Tampa Bay should cover +7.5 points approximately 96.92% of the time based on my findings.
2. Jacksonville Sharks +13.5 (15.57)
Jacksonville is also a reasonable bet for tomorrow. I believe the difference in this game will be defense.
3. Arizona vs Jacksonville Under 110 (-14.28)
4. San Jose vs Spokane Under 110 (-10.35)
Good luck this weekend!
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