AFL Week 6 (Model Picks)

Hello Community,

I'm back to make some more AFL picks. I had a good week last week and I believe that my model should improve each week as I get more current data about the teams. I've been having alot of success picking ATS so far and O/U's have improved enough to release my first pick on a total. For anyone who read my post last week, the numbers in the brakets next to my pick are my form of confidence rating. Last weeks numbers should NOT be directly compared to this weeks numbers. I'm using 2 models to make my picks, the first one is current and the second uses info from the previous season. Last week I used the second models confidence numbers and this week and from here forward I will be using my more current model. I have projections for every game and I'll try to answer questions about any other "leans" that I have.  

Here are the picks based on the opening lines:

1.Arizona Rattlers -17 (25.25)

2.Jacksonville Sharks +7 (21.02)

3.Clevaland Gladiators +4 (10.83)

4.San Antonio Talons -3 (10.07)

5.CLE vs UTAH Under 118 (9.62)

Good Luck,

Bring the AFL lines back to Vegas!!

WOW! I'm showing that the Peppermill opened lines for tonights AFL game. I am pretty stunned and have know way to varify that they actually are taking bets do to the fact that I live about 30 mins outside of Seattle Washington. I'd like to know if anyone here has made an AFL bet with them recently and what their limits are. I'll probably try to call and see what I can figure out. Thanks. Here are my picks for tonights game based on the lines vegasinsider shows for the Peppermill:

1.IOWA vs CHI Under 110 (14.89)

2.CHI +12 (9.94)

I'm adding one more pick to my card today. My current model likes this pick alot and the older one agrees as well so I'll post it.

1. San Antonio vs Pittsburgh Under 101 (22.02)