Since there is not much data I am including the preseason games in my assessment, once we get a few weeks in I'll discard them, though the preseason games did seem to have some relevance considering week 1 results. Information gathered from: noextrapoints.com
#1. Orlando Apollos 2-0, 71 PF, 34 PA.
#2. Arizona Hotshots 2-0, 74 PF, 39 PA.
#3. San Antonio Commanders, 2-0, 52 PF, 17 PA.
#4. Birmingham Iron, 1-1, 43 PF, 36 PA.
#5. Salt Lake Stallions, 1-1, 51 PF, 53 PA.
#6. San Diego Fleet, 0-2, 34 PF, 43 PA.
#7. Memphis Express, 0-2, 15 PF, 55 PA.
#8. Atlanta Legends, 0-2, 17 PF, 77 PA.
Here is the week 2 schedule:
Salt Lake at Birmingham
Both teams lost to Arizona by similar scores, and both teams beat Memphis. Birmingham defense looked good vs a clueless Christian Hackenberg. Birmingham QB Luis Perez was efficient, and Birmingham RB Trent Richardson ran for two TDs although his low yards per carry average has carried over from the NFL, 23 carries for 58 yards, 2.5 ypc.
Salt Lake QBs combined for 2 TDs, 2 INTs and a lowly 4.5 yards per attempt vs Arizona. The Salt Lake defense gave up 275 yards passing, 4 touchdowns and 9.5 yards per attempt through the air. The rush defense gave up 149 yards on 39 carries, 3.8 yards per carry.
Salt Lake played a good team and Birmingham played a bad team in week 1. Birmingham is at home and their QB situation seems to be much more settled than that of Salt Lake. Going to have to give Birmingham a decent advantage here.
My point spread, Birmingham -8.5. Probable Vegas point spread, Birmingham -5.
Arizona at Memphis
Not going to get too in depth on this one. Arizona looked really good against a decent team, and Memphis looked clueless vs a decent team. Fading Christian Hackenberg until he gets benched is the way to go here. Can't give Memphis too much home field advantage here, I doubt there is a huge groundswell in Tennessee to check out a team that just got blanked 26-0. I don't think Mike Singletary is much of a head coach.
My point spread, Arizona -16.5. Probable Vegas point spread, Arizona -6.5.
Orlando at San Antonio
Both teams have whipped hapless Atlanta, and both team have won closer games against San Diego. Orlando looks complete on both sides of the ball, with almost perfect run/pass balance on offense vs Atlanta. San Antonio has looked great on defense, but they have major pass protection issues. Through 2 games San Antonio has given up 6 sacks and 16 QB hits, compared to 2 sacks and 5 hits against Orlando QBs. I think Orlando has a decent edge here, even on the road.
My point spread, Orlando -7.5. Probable Vegas point spread, Orlando -1.5.
Atlanta at San Diego
San Diego scatter arm Mike Bercovici has thrown 1 TD and 5 INTs in the first two games. They have rushed for a decent yards per carry average when Mike Martz has elected to run the ball. I'd look for San Diego to score a lot more points than 6 against a poor Atlanta defense. For Atlanta it isn't so much a question of who starts at QB between Matt Simms and Aaron Murray, but a question of who finishes - Atlanta QBs have been sacked a mind boggling 13 times through 2 games, and have been hit an additional 16 times. I can see why Brad Childress quit this team considering Atlanta's talentless offensive line.
My point spread, San Diego -10.5. Probably Vegas point spread, San Diego -5.5.
BOL with your bets gents.
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