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Here is an in-depth look at this weekend's divisional playoff matchups:
Colorado at San Jose
Saturday
(ESPN, 3 p.m. ET)
Colorado showed amazing resiliency and mental toughness last week, going into Kansas City after a four-game losing streak and upsetting a superior Brigade team by playing quality defense and making key stops when the game was on the line. However, doing the same thing in San Jose, where the SaberCats are almost unbeatable, will be a much higher mountain to climb. Colorado played excellent defense last week, but San Jose's offense will be tough to slow. Colorado was great on third down (4-for-4) and also the red zone (6-for-6) at Kansas City, and that kind of offensive efficiency gives it a chance, but San Jose is very opportunistic on defense. If Colorado's secondary plays a great game, it has a chance to slow down QB Mark Grieb and company, but this is a San Jose team that rarely plays a bad game.
Three keys to the game
1. Can Colorado QB John Dutton play a complete game? This is a rhythm offense, with success based on consistency and the ability to take care of the football and not turn it over. Dutton is a streaky guy and he cannot make mistakes versus an opportunistic San Jose defense.
2. Can San Jose force Colorado into an up-tempo game? The Sabercats were fourth in the AFL with 132 TDs, and they are much more explosive and consistent than Colorado. A high-scoring game that comes down to one or two key defensive stops would favor San Jose.
3. Turnovers. When Colorado takes care of the football, it wins, but the Crush finished the regular season with a minus-9 turnover margin. San Jose always takes care of the football and it pounces on opponents' mistakes. Colorado must play a "clean" game on offense to have a chance.
Prediction
San Jose is probably the toughest team in the league and the best at home, and the SaberCats are facing Colorado with an extra week of rest. They are a veteran team with a lot of playoff experience and they simply don't beat themselves. Asking Colorado to play as well on defense as it did last week in Kansas City is probably not realistic, and this is a SaberCat offense that can score a lot of points early and put a defense in a hole. This looks like a fairly comfortable San Jose win.
Columbus at Dallas
Saturday
(ESPN, 8 p.m. ET)
The surprising Destroyers went to Tampa Bay last week and upset a hot Storm team, but that was an easier task than going into Dallas. The Desperados are rested and are the most complete team in the league with no glaring weaknesses. Their quarterback, Clint Dolezel, is masterful at calling his own plays and can pick a defense apart if he has good pass protection. Dallas ranks high in pass and rushing defense, but Columbus has two difference-makers on the defensive line, Kelvin Kinney and LaKendrick Jones, along with two quality defensive backs, Jerald Brown and Brandon Hefflin. Dallas should be focused and that should eliminate its tendency of playing sloppy and getting behind early.
Three keys to the game 1. Can Columbus get off to a fast start? Dallas is the No. 1 scoring team in the AFL, while Columbus is ranked fourth from the bottom in that category. The Destroyers cannot match Dallas in a high-scoring shootout, but Dallas has shown a tendency to start slowly.
2. Pass rush vital to both teams. Both of these teams can get to the QB, with Columbus doing it with the duo of Kinney and Jones, while Dallas gets it done with a variety of rushers. Either Clint Dolezel or Columbus QB Matt Nagy can make plays if he has time, so the battle in the trenches could be the key to the game.
3. Dallas must contain Columbus WR Damien Groce. The Destroyers' best playmaker is Groce, and if the Desperados shut him down, Columbus is much less explosive. Dallas has an excellent secondary and will likely use some press schemes to alter his routes and disrupt the timing off the offense.
Prediction
Columbus was a surprise team to get to the playoffs and an even bigger surprise to get to this round. The Destroyers have a puncher's chance to beat Dallas because of their defensive excellence and the explosive offensive tandem of QB Nagy and WR Groce. However, Dallas is loaded with veterans who know they are the best team in the AFL, and they will not let the game slip by them -- instead it will make a statement to the rest of the league to set up a showdown with Georgia next week.
Philadelphia at Georgia
Sunday
(ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET)
At the outset, this looks like a one-sided game that favors Georgia's explosive offense versus a veteran Philadelphia squad that is certainly talented, but struggles to put together a complete game on both sides of the ball. Georgia has the best passing offense in the AFL, completing almost 74 percent of its passes, while turning the ball over only 12 times, and it leads the league with 119 scoring connections. The Force have a great QB in Chris Greisen and their receiving trio of Troy Bergeron, Derek Lee and Chris Jackson is dangerous. However, the Soul have a secondary that has a fighting chance to control these guys if the pass-rush pressure is solid, and this is a defense that held Orlando to 26 points last week. If Philadelphia QB Tony Graziani is perfect and if they don't turn the ball over, the Soul have a chance for an upset, but it is a huge challenge.
Three keys to the game
1. Georgia WRs versus Philadelphia secondary. This is where the game will be won or lost. The Georgia WR trio of Bergeron, Jackson and Lee is magical, but the Soul secondary is aggressive and will take a lot of chances and jump routes.
2. Pass protection. Both teams have excellent offensive lines that do an excellent job of protecting their pocket QBs. We know that both Greisen and Graziani can pick any defense apart if they have time.
3. Which Soul team will we see? Even with the excuse of a lot of injuries, this is a team that can beat anybody if it plays a complete game. The Soul look a little bit right now like the Chicago Rush did a year ago, winning it all after a mediocre regular season.
Prediction
Georgia has played with explosiveness and consistency the entire season. Although we have seen glimpses of greatness from Philadelphia, it has been devastated by injuries. Georgia's wide receivers are great and the best shot the Soul have is to create a big pass rush and then hope their secondary can gamble, play press coverages and come up with some big plays. However, Georgia is just too explosive, is rested and at home. Get ready for the game of the year next week between Georgia and Dallas.
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