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A quick breakdown of the Week 4 schedule in the Arena Football League:
Friday, March 23
New York (0-2) at Tampa Bay (0-3)
Obviously, both teams are struggling and neither shows much explosiveness on offense. Still, Tampa Bay is closer to turning it around than New York. Both are really struggling at the QB position. They have just 13 passing TDs between them and neither team has a QB passer rating over 100.0. The sad part is both the Dragons and the Storm have quality receivers, but neither has a QB who can get the ball to them. Pass defense is another problem; both squads lack playmakers and neither match up very well in man-to-man situations. Tampa Bay does have an advantage in the run game and is willing to pound it out when it gets in the red zone (the Storm have eight rushing TDs in three games). Tampa Bay has utilized a short passing game to neutralize good pass rushers, but that should not be a problem versus a Dragons defense that doesn't make many big plays. If Dragons QB Rohan Davey gets good pass protection, he has receivers who can make plays. But look for Tampa Bay to finally produce a good defensive effort and QB John Kaleo will play an efficient game to lead the Storm to their first win.
Las Vegas (1-2) at Arizona (0-3)
Both teams are capable of putting points on the board, but both are learning that you have to play some defense in this league to be successful and defensive stops have been hard to come by. Arizona has a great passing duo of QB Sherdrick Bonner and WR Randy Gatewood, which has connected for a league-high 20 TDs in three games. The problem is the Rattlers can't stop anybody and have surrendered a league-high 25 TDs in three games. The Rattlers are the only team to already give up over 1,000 yards through the air, and they've played only three games. Las Vegas has a potentially explosive passing game led by QB Shaun King (10 TD passes in Week 2) and WR Kevin Prentiss (nine TDs in Week 2), and last week WR Etu Molden emerged as a go-to guy with 10 receptions for 113 yards and one TD. Las Vegas must protect King, but Arizona has not shown the consistent ability to pressure opposing QBs. This game will come down to which defense shows up and forces QB mistakes. Las Vegas appears to have a better chance to get that accomplished than Arizona.
Grand Rapids (1-2) at Utah (2-1)
Grand Rapids is undermanned on both sides of the ball and Utah is a one-dimensional offensive team, and those weaknesses led to each losing in Week 3. The Rampage struggle with their passing game and QB Matt Sauk is being pressed by newly acquired Michael Bishop. They have two excellent receivers in Troy Edwards and Timon Marshall, but need to find a way to get them the ball. They are also excellent in their kickoff returns, which leads to good field position. Utah is an elite passing team and QB Joe Germaine has a sparkling 128.8 rating. He has three excellent receivers in Orshawante Bryant, Siaha Burley and Ryan Dennard, so moving the ball is not a problem. Pass protection can be a problem for both teams, but neither has a dominating pass rush and both defenses are at the bottom of the league in TDs allowed. This has the feel of a wide-open passing game, but with Germaine at QB, Utah seems much better equipped to roll up points. The wild card could be Grand Rapid's ability to run the ball, slow down the game and keep the Utah offense off the field, but that's a long shot. If the Blaze can make even a couple of defensive stops, they have the offensive firepower to run away with this game.
Saturday, March 24
San Jose (1-1) at Georgia (3-0)
San Jose is coming off a bye week but its early schedule is brutal and now it travels to Georgia to play one of the hottest teams in the AFL. Georgia looks like a complete team and has a defense that can take over a game. The Force are getting solid production from QB Chris Greisen, who has 23 TD passes with only three interceptions and a 132.8 QB rating. He has an excellent trio of receivers -- Troy Bergeron, Chris Jackson and Derek Lee -- and Georgia is a quick-strike offense with an excellent red zone package. However, the Force are more dominating on defense than offense. They are the No. 1 overall defense in the AFL and do a great job of not only pressuring QBs, but also getting their hands up, taking away passing lanes and making it difficult to throw over the top. San Jose will counter with veteran QB Mark Grieb, who has his own solid trio of receivers to throw to in James Roe, Ben Nelson and Rodney Wright. The SaberCats even get some red zone passing production from TE George Williams and they also have a solid veteran defense. The difference in this game will be the big plays that the Georgia defense will make and the mistakes it will force San Jose to make. The SaberCats are a good team, but they are not as dominant as Georgia right now.
Chicago (2-1) at Columbus (1-1)
The Rush finally woke up last week versus hapless New York and flashed some of the big defensive play capability and pass-rush pressure that we have been waiting to see for three weeks. Chicago is still not a dominant offensive team, but the duo of QB Matt D'Orazio and WR Bobby Sippio (13 TDs in three games, including five TDs versus New York) has a chance to be special, but they need to develop other weapons in the passing game to spread defenses out. The key to the Rush's success is defensive pressure, and they have an excellent pass rush quartet in E.J. Burt, Joe Peters, Curtis Eason and John Moyer. This is a unit that can wear down an offense and take over the game in the second half. Columbus, which is coming off a bye, is struggling offensively. The only explosiveness that you really see is when QB Matt Nagy and WR Damien Groce hook up, but Chicago will likely have DB Jeremy Unertl blanketing Groce. Chicago is vulnerable to a strong run game in the red zone, but it's doubtful that Columbus can take advantage of that weakness. This game will be decided by the Rush defense. If they come to play, Chicago will win. But we have seen before that Chicago sometimes plays down to the level of its competition.
Los Angeles (1-1) at New Orleans (2-1)
Upstart New Orleans may provide a bigger challenge for Los Angeles than most of us anticipated. The VooDoo are a surprising 2-1 and are getting solid production from veteran QB Andy Kelly (16 TDs and zero INTs). They have a quartet of receivers -- Kenny Henderson, Tyronne Jones, Darnell McDonald and James Jordan -- that make it tough for defenses to match up. However, the Avengers have shown the ability to switch from soft-zone defensive schemes to aggressive man-to-man schemes, Led by DB Damen Wheeler, they are playing with a lot of confidence. New Orleans is also playing good defense and has the hottest pass rusher in the league in DE Henry Taylor, who had three tackles for loss and two sacks last week. The VooDoo also have a playmaker in the secondary in DB Earthwind Moreland, and are among the league's best on third- and fourth-down defense. They face QB Sonny Cumbie, who has 12 TDs and zero INTs this season. Both teams may try to run the ball and be physical in the red zone, but New Orleans is the top-ranked run defense in the league. Although we have two QBs in this game who have not thrown an interception, this game will likely come down to a couple of big plays on defense by either aggressive defense. The VooDoo will feed off the home crowd and will play a cleaner game than Los Angeles to post their third win.
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