Posted:
#1
Georgia (0-1) at Tampa Bay (1-0)
Georgia is coming off a tough home loss to Dallas, while Tampa Bay looked pretty solid in a close road win at Kansas City in Week 1. Force QB Chris Greisen did a good job of finding his receivers in the middle of the field versus a good and aggressive Desperados defense, but there is work to be done. Georgia was 0-for-8 in third- and fourth-down conversions, committed nine penalties, lost two fumbles and had virtually no running game. That's not good enough versus the elite teams. The Force do have a promising pass rush with Jermaine Smith, Earnest Allen and R.K. Truluck, and the ability to pressure opposing QBs will really help out this defense.
Tampa Bay also struggled in Week 1 on third- and fourth-down conversions (only 2-for-8). Both QBs, Greisen and Tampa Bay's Brett Dietz, can get hot but this game will likely come down to defensive stops. Georgia is tough in the trenches, but if its pass rush isn't effective, it can expose a so-so secondary. Dietz is not the same guy when he is pressured and Georgia will come after him. Tampa Bay's defense is physical, but rather than with a great pass rush, the Storm get it done with aggressive coverage schemes that make it hard for receivers to separate. This game will come down to which defense will make a stop on third or fourth down and which QB makes a key mistake. Georgia will get better, but it is not ready yet to beat the Storm on the road.
Columbus (0-1) at Dallas (1-0)
In a solid road win at Georgia in Week 1, the Desperados looked great at times and uneven at others, so there is room for improvement. Meanwhile, Columbus came up short versus Colorado but got a pretty good game out of QB Matt Nagy. Dallas QB Clint Dolezel played well but suffered a shoulder separation in the fourth quarter and is out for at least a month. He will be replaced by Chris Sanders, who has a lot of AFL experience, mostly as a backup but he understands the game, can handle pressure and can be a caretaker of this offense. With Dolezel out, the Dallas defense will have to take over, and it is capable of doing just that. It had six defensive stops last week and held Georgia to 0-for-8 conversions on third and fourth downs.
Nagy showed great chemistry with new receiver Derek Lee, but he must develop other targets because a defense like Dallas will take him out of the game with double or rolled coverages. This is not a good matchup game for Columbus because Dallas is too deep on both sides of the ball and can control this game and dictate the matchups. Look for big games on offense by Desperados receivers Will Pettis and Marcus Nash and big plays on defense by DL Colston Weatherington and DB Jermaine Jones. This game is all Dallas.
Sunday
Utah (0-1) at Cleveland (1-0)
Utah was supposed to have an upgraded defense, but after giving up 63 points to a young and inexperienced Arizona offense, the jury is still out. Cleveland played better than anticipated in a win over New York, and while the offense was expected to be solid with QB Raymond Philyaw, it was the Gladiators' defense that totally dominated the Dragons' offense. It looks like the real deal. The Gladiators play good pass defense, which is aided by an excellent pass rush up front, and a big key to this game will be the quality of pass protection Utah QB Joe Germaine gets. He is doing a decent job of spreading the ball around to his receivers but he does not have that go-to guy who can give him big plays. This is no longer a Utah offense that will win shootouts (don't be fooled by the 62 points scored versus a young Arizona defense). This game will come down to which defense applies the best pressure and forces the QBs into mistakes, which will lead to two or three key defensive stops. Right now, with Cleveland at home in front of a great crowd and with good balance on both sides of the ball, look for the Gladiators to move their record to 2-0.
Kansas City (0-1) at New York (0-1)
Even with QB Aaron Garcia, the Dragons are a team that simply lacks enough playmakers. And now that Garcia is out with a knee injury, they are an inferior football team. Although Rohan Davey played well in Garcia's place in Week 1, it doesn't matter unless the offensive line improves. New York allowed four sacks and four tackles for loss, which led to three forced fumbles and two interceptions, and no QB can overcome that.
The Brigade does have a pretty good defense that can apply pressure, and their pass rush could lead to interceptions and bad throws. Kansas City QB John Fitzgerald does have a solid trio of receivers to throw to, and they match up well versus the Dragons DBs. But expect New York to come after Fitzgerald with an aggressive pass rush; they will play hard and create some pressure. Davey also has a quality trio of receivers and a strong arm, but will he have time to get them the ball? Kansas City's defense will control the flow of this game and create enough turnovers and big plays to overcome a sloppy offensive performance by both teams.
Orlando (0-1) at New Orleans (0-1)
Both of these teams are coming off disappointing opening losses to superior opponents (Orlando lost to Philadelphia and New Orleans lost to L.A.). Ironically, the Predators reversed their usual roles and playing good offense, but their usually strong defense couldn't make enough key stops. When is the last time that we saw an Orlando defense that did not generate any big plays? No tackles for loss, no interceptions, no sacks, no passes broken up. That puts pressure on an inexperienced offense to be nearly perfect, which isn't good. QB Shane Stafford played well and found a new weapon in rookie WR Chris Gessner (four TD catches), but bad field position and a veteran secondary that does not match up well versus deep receiving units are problems that must be resolved. Stafford got hit a lot by the Soul defense and even worked out of the shotgun to buy time.
New Orleans is young and lacks multiple playmakers. The VooDoo's lack of explosiveness and consistency will continue to be a problem. Orlando has loads of experience in its secondary, but also has aging players who do not match up real well in man-to-man situations. Look for the Predators to play some bend-but-don't-break zone schemes on defense. New Orleans must manufacture a pass rush versus a new Orlando offensive line, but Stafford will make enough plays for the Predators to get a close road win.
Monday
San Jose (0-1) at Grand Rapids (0-0)
Grand Rapids is probably the most inexperienced team in the AFL and the last thing it needed was a Week 1 bye. Another thing it doesn't need is to play defending ArenaBowl champ San Jose, especially when the SaberCats are coming off a tough loss at Chicago. Adrian McPherson has been named the starting QB and despite his tendency to make bad decisions and force throws into coverage, his mobility is a positive factor for the Rampage. San Jose must contain him, and with the Jack LB bailing out a lot in coverage, don't be surprised if McPherson scrambles up the middle on several plays.
San Jose was embarrassed by Chicago, which dominated on defense and forced five SaberCats turnovers. Count on San Jose working on ball security this week. QB Mark Grieb is too good to stay down long and he has three excellent receivers. Also expect San Jose secondary to play much better than it did versus Chicago, where it really struggled in man-to-man, and look for some zone schemes designed to confuse McPherson, not give up the big play and keep the DBs facing the QB. This is a long road trip for the second straight week for the SaberCats, but after a sluggish start they will run away with this game to get back on track.
0
Hot Forum Topics
