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A quick look at the Wild Card playoff games in the Arena Football League:
Friday
Orlando (8-8) at Philadelphia (7-8)
(ESPN, 7 p.m. ET)
These are two strong organizations that are happy to be in the playoffs, but neither played up to expectations during the regular season. While injuries were certainly a factor, both teams are nearly at full strength now and having played each other last week means there will be no secrets or surprises. These are well-coached offenses capable of big games. They both pass protect well and also take care of the football. Both defenses apply a lot of pressure and Philadelphia's secondary, in particular, takes advantage of that pass rush by playing physical, tight coverage schemes and is capable of game-changing plays. The Orlando offense has struggled at times to finish drives and doesn't always look like it makes a lot of adjustments during the game. Neither team is very good on special teams, but both are stingy on defense. This game will likely come down to a couple of defensive stops or turnovers.
Three keys to the game
1. Which pass rush is the most effective? Both teams have excellent defensive fronts and put a lot of pressure on opposing QBs. Orlando DE Greg White is the best sack-master in the league and could be the difference coming off the edge.
2. Which team can convert on third and fourth downs: Both offenses have explosive potential, but both have struggled at times to finish drives and convert on the money downs. In a close game, neither offense can afford turnovers and stops.
3. Which QB can exploit defensive gambles? With good pass rushes up front, both of these secondaries will take some chances and jump some routes to create big plays. There are plays to be made by the QB who does the best job of reading the defense and releasing the ball at the last second as the receivers separate.
Prediction
Neither team is playing at the top of their game, but both have a lot of veteran players who know what's at stake. They know each other well and there won't be a lot of surprises Orlando has struggled to finish drives at times this year and the Soul defense is capable of creating big plays and making key defensive stops. Look for Philadelphia to win a low-scoring game at home to advance to the second round.
Saturday
Columbus (7-9) at Tampa Bay (9-7)
(ESPN, Noon ET)
Both of these teams fly somewhat under the radar and neither is very flashy. Tampa Bay enters the playoffs with a lot of confidence and head coach Tim Marcum has done a great job keeping his players competitive after an 0-5 start. The Storm play a very efficient brand of football designed to limit mistakes and turnovers and they wait for their opponents to self destruct. They don't dazzle you in any particular area, but they always seem to hang around and are right there at the end of the game. Tampa Bay is also getting great play from emerging QB Brett Dietz. He really manages the game well. Columbus QB Matt Nagy is also capable of putting up a lot of points. The Destroyers offense can be very explosive, but they lack week-to-week consistency. This game will come down to game management and the team that plays the cleanest will win.
Three keys to the game
1. Which QB takes care of the football? These are smart teams with very efficient QBs. Neither team tends to make mistakes and beat themselves. In what looks like a close game, avoiding turnovers is critical.
2. How will the young Storm roster handle playoff pressure? Tampa Bay is a young team with very few veterans with playoff experience and a lot of these players have not been in this situation. They have played with composure down the stretch and it should continue at home this weekend.
3. Which team controls the flow of the game? Neither team is overly explosive or flashy. Tampa Bay likes to slow the game down and dictate the pace and wait for the other team to make a mistake. This will be an interesting chess match.
Prediction
Columbus backed into the playoffs and has played with marginal consistency for most of the season, but they have talent and are capable of a breakout game. Tampa Bay may be the most consistent team in the league right now. The Storm will play a conservative game and wait for Columbus to make a mistake and then capitalize on it. The Storm should advance with a nice home win.
Colorado (8-8) at Kansas City (10-6)
(ESPN, 3 p.m. ET)
While Kansas City has quietly been one of the most consistent teams in the league, Colorado comes into this game a tired team with very little confidence. The Crush are not getting consistency out of the QB position as John Dutton is just not playing playoff-caliber football. He has excellent weapons in WRs Damian Harrell and Willie Quinnie, but he can't get them the ball enough. The offense is turning the ball over too much and the Crush are not good enough to overcome those mistakes. They move the ball well, but they never look like a complete team that can finish a team off. Plus, with no running game and marginal special teams, the Crush get no help in other areas. Kansas City is coming off a disappointing loss to surging Chicago, but the Brigade is still a very steady team on both sides of the ball. QB Raymond Philyaw gives them great consistency. And don't overlook a Brigade defense that is in the top five in a lot of categories. This team sneaks up on you!
Three keys to the game
1. Is Colorado ready to play? This looks like a team that has very little gas left in the tank after two straight losses on Monday nights and the Crush are now on a four-game losing streak. Can Mike Dailey get them to regroup and put the past behind them?
2. Will the run game be a factor? Colorado can't run the ball and they can't stop the run while Kansas City can be quite effective when they attack on the ground. It wouldn't be surprising at all if the Brigade run the ball in the red zone to exploit Colorado's weakness.
3. Spread the ball around: Brigade QB Raymond Philyaw does an excellent job of spreading the ball around and really takes a secondary deep on matchups. Meanwhile, Crush QB John Dutton tends to lock in on Damian Harrell, even though he has other viable passing options.
Prediction
It is hard to get a handle on the mentality of these two teams entering the playoffs. Colorado may be struggling with a lack of momentum and confidence, but it's tough to read K.C. because it just goes its business. Colorado has lost four in a row, have struggled with consistency at QB and is getting physically pushed around. Look for Raymond Philyaw and Co. to have a methodical performance and win comfortably.
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