90% NFL favorites cover when they win?

Question

Some statistic that somebody mentioned awhile back that I didn't understand. Obv more details to it but Cincy knew and commented in the thread and so did a few other savy vets.

Somebody be more specific on that? I'm confused as usual.

Hope you guys are doing well.

searchwarrant · Answer

Some statistic that somebody mentioned awhile back that I didn't understand. Obv more details to it but Cincy knew and commented in the thread and so did a few other savy vets.

Somebody be more specific on that? I'm confused as usual.

Hope you guys are doing well.

Villemure30 · Answer

If true....Really not a useful stat...IMOYou could have a weekend with 16 games14 dogs win outright 2 favorites win / coverIf you bet the chalk you go 2-14.....Yet your stat plays out 100%( 2 Favorites that win = cover )

DaBestEver24 · Answer

Niners won but didnt cover last week

Biscuiteater1 · Answer

i knew it was high but not that high.

Dsn150 · Answer

I think a better stat to look at would be which % of teams that cover actually win-

And look at it by pointspread ranges-

Maybe opportunities to play ML instead of taking or giving a low # of points-

It seems like someone had that data a while back- a couple of seasons ago in NFL- and dogs that covered seemed to win outright at a pretty high rate-

Getty3 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Dsn150]  I think a better stat to look at would be which % of teams that cover actually win-&#xD;&#xA;And look at it by pointspread ranges-&#xD;&#xA;Maybe opportunities to play ML instead of taking or giving a low # of points-&#xD;&#xA;It seems like someone had that data a while back- a couple of seasons ago in NFL- and dogs that covered seemed to win outright at a pretty high rate-  [/Quote]Underdogs getting between 1 and 3 points are 937&#x2013;896-108 against the spread (ATS). Of those 937 underdogs that covered, 863 won outright &#x2013; a 92% win rate.Underdogs getting between 3.5 and 6.5 points are 968-955-22 ATS. Of those 968 underdogs that covered, 641 won outright &#x2013; a 66.2% win rate.Underdogs getting between 7 and 10 points are 701-646-36 ATS. Of those 701 underdogs that covered, 364 won outright &#x2013; a 51.9% win rate.Underdogs getting between 10 and 14 points are 359-300-15 ATS. Of those 359 underdogs that covered, 136 won outright - a 38.2% win rate.Underdogs getting more than 14 points are 61-53-2 ATS. Of those 61 underdogs that covered, 6 won outright &#x2013; a 9.8% win rate.The best result for an oddsmaker is almost always the favorite winning but not covering.

CincyWillie · Answer

Basically, if you think the fav is going to win in the NFL just bet em ATS.

DaBestEver24 · Answer

Cowboys won but didnt cover. Niners won against seattle a didnt cover

searchwarrant · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;At a pretty considerably high % I assume. &#xD;&#xA;Yes.&#xD;&#xA;mlb rl &#x2B;1.5 is around 35% cover ratio. No bueno.

90% NFL favorites cover when they win?

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