CD Newsletter Week 5

@undermysac

 Didn't make it easy getting inside those ever-narrowing uprights.

YTD: 2-15 (-13.95)

Jaguars +3(-110) *2.50/2.27

Jaguars ML(+135) *1.50/2.03

Texans 1H ML(+105) *10.00/10.50

Steelers +4.5(-110) *1.25/1.14

Rams 1H +2.5(+100) *1.25

Rams 1H ML(+140) *.50/.70

Adding:

Cardinals 1H +1.5(-110) *1.25/1.14

Cardinals 1H ML(+125) *.75/.94

Same cap as the Texans. Much better 1H power rating. Much better QB. Bengals with a slightly harder sos, but this game is in AZ. AZ is #16 overall dvoa. Cincinnati is #26.

Everyone is expecting the Bengals to fight for their lives here but how? Tee Higgins is out, starting CB Chidobe Awuzie is out with DJ Turner making his first nfl start in his place. Josh Tupou in the trenches is out. The Cardinals offense is 6th overall by dvoa, like I said before that this is no team to "get right" against, especially with a depleted secondary. 

This # is stupid. How quickly people forget that this team beat the Cowboys. As if this is a trap line of some sort. I'll take the bookies dare.

What's up with le shrimp and their inability to put games away?! Ridiculous pattern...

Think the Patriots would fire their coach if his name wasn't Belichick?

I'm about to get hosed by the Eagles and Bengals 

My sympathies sac, that was just brutal, both games...

I dunno how do you cap what happened in LA, also it seems there is no team that can stop the Eagles and their QB sneak, although at this point it looks more of a push...

1st 2 penalties of the game on the Rams that drive

That horse collar one was dumb as shit... whenever I see a bet like yours lose this way, all I can think of is: you can't buy luck...

It looks like bigred was right, regarding the O's, I think he said in some thread he could see them getting swept by Texas, they are getting lit up.

Travis Kelce is hurt.   Taylor Swift has been traded to the Jets

@yaongingy

 At least here in the PB we acknowledge penalties as piss poor acts of the players who we are backing. It is what it is.

In the mains, it's clearly rigged by the refs

At this point of the day, I would like to ask Hugh of his honest evaluation of the Cowboys and 49ers game.

It has to be the best rivalry of all time. The first 2 nfc championship games ever played were between these clubs. 1970 I believe was the first.

I think the Cowboys kind of own em.

Thanks Hugh 

Adding:

Dal@SF 1H U22.5(-105) *2.10/2.00

It's a hard bet to make, but makes a ton of sense to me.

Good Luck 

@yaongingy

 I said Texas might maul us......They  did....

G Rod  12 straight starts 3 runs or less.....Brutal..

The Raven WRs  dropped 3  TDP....

But Jackson Pick on 3rd down was terrible.....

@Lifebythedrop

Nothing like pissing away 2 bets after a good day.

Still can't complain. 

Leaving tomorrow for nowheresville Wisconsin to fish for 5 days.

Week 6 look ahead bets:

Seahawks +2(-110) *2.00/1.82

Buccaneers +3(-110) *1.00/.91

Buccaneers +3(+100) *5.00

Buccaneers ML(+155) *1.50/2.33

Stuck with a worse line on Seattle, as the Bengals look to be back on track. Burrow looked like Burrow. Yet, having Pete Carroll off a bye here I'm fine with. Hopefully Geno Smith is much better than Joshua Dobbs.

I'm bullish on the Bucs next week. The line will hit 3.5 I'm certain. But as you guys know, I like better juice. Not going to pay out my ass to avoid a push.

Since the nfl opener vs KC and Mahomes(11), what quarterbacks have the Lions faced? Geno Smith(10), Desmond Ridder(25), Jordan Love(19), Bryce Young(30). The numbers in parentheses is QBR. The Lions only loss was vs Geno, and they only beat Mahomes by 1 in a game where Toney had 3 drops.

Would you be surprised That Baker Mayfield is 8th overall QBR at 101.5? And his new OC(Dave Canales) is the quarterbacks coach from Seattle who resurrected Geno Smith's career. The Seahawks put up 48 points on the Lions last year. Canales has 2 weeks coming off a bye to put a game plan together vs the Lions.

The Lions are piping hot, beating terrible teams by margin. I feel like they get a dose of reality here otr, outdoors in the Tampa heat. Feels like a sell high spot to me.

The Bucs only loss this year is vs the Eagles, Arguably the 2nd best team in the NFL. The Bucs 26-9 win over the Saints is aging well after we saw what the Saints did to the Pats yesterday. 

Good Luck

I’m imagining the scene from The Godfather where Fredo gets whacked while fishing.

”You broke my heart Big Purple!”

Packers +2 tonight.  It’ll be close I think.  Gimme the points.  Raiders offense is anemic.

I still have my notes from the last 3 years on the Cowboys performance after a loss. You remember when I hit my bomb on them boys against the Vikings?

Want to hear em?

@undermysac

 Yes.  You have the floor.  Proceed.

@marvindorfler

 Orioles didnt play like they did on Sunday all year.......

Ravens never should have lost Sunday..

7 dropped passes...5 in the first 4 games...

Going to London today.....

Ok, just gonna copy and paste my texts between my college gambling buddy's about this game. They're diggin it but apprehensive. That makes it even better, cause NO ONE will want any part of Dallas after last night.

Since 2021, the Cowboys after a loss are 9-1 su. They averaged 34 ppg, and allowed 15.9 ppg in these 10 games. I found these stats on my own. I used this last year when the Cowboys beat the Vikings 40-3

If the spread were to be Cowboys -3 in all these games, they went 7-1-2 ats

-2.5 or less, they'd be 9-1 ats

Mccarthy is the most reliable bounce back coach in the last 3 years

The best part about it is that the media completely shits on them all week after a loss. That game last night was a complete embarrassment

They play in LA vs the Chargers on MNF. B2B prime time games. 

The Cowboys have a bye after the Chargers game as well. I think they lay it all on the line. Can't go 0-2 on prime time then have 2 weeks to sulk

Spread opened Cowboys -3, public has bet it down to -2.5 and -2 in some spots

It's like that Vikings game all over again from last year. Cowboys were -2.5 at Minny after a loss, and Minnys record was great due to a huge luck factor. I hit my biggest bet of the year on the boys in that game.

Everyone including the podcasts were all over Minny.

 Gold.