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Even The Best Lose!! Remember That Folks.

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Posted: #1

Coming off an amazingly profitable 2013 betting campaign, yesterday was my single worst day ever as an NHL bettor. I lost 50% of my 2014 NHL bankroll just like that. Sharks screwed me but the Canucks absolutely destroyed me. My temper got the worst of me after losing.

I've been taking the Vancouver Canucks recently as live dogs and have been right on my predictive pre-game betting analysis. Capping the game to a T only to get screwed over in the 3rd period late with under a minute to go.

Somethings not right. Right now I would advise NHL cappers to refrain from betting because this whole Olympics on the horizon is compounding matters. Teams suddenly lighting up the scoreboard games going way over projected O/U lines. 

Even the best go on funks. Thankfully I have the bankroll to sustain these horrendous downturns. 

I'm not making this post to whine or complain but rather to warn you that any bets should be placed after the Olympics when things return to normal. Betting now is just asking for trouble and essentially just flipping a coin or throwing darts on the board

- Art
 
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Posted: #2
Tough luck... I had no money on that game but that HAD to send ya into a rage.

I lost a GOOD amount betting on the KC Chiefs a few days back... They were up by 28 at the half... One of those losses that make you sick to your stomach as I'm sure you felt the same way.

NHL's been brutal to me this year.
 
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Posted: #3
I lost money wagering on a team who's goalie put the puck in his pants and decided to dance in his own net.  

- DB
 
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Posted: #4
Can you just post your picks anyways?   You are a VERY VALUABLE ASSET to this forum!!!  Anyone who goes opposite of you wins !!!!!!






 
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Posted: #5
^ agreed. You and your stupid "POY, 100% POD, etc" is money when faded
 
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Posted: #6
He posted his last play in the Penalty Box so none of us could fade and win  

 
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Posted: #7

2013/2014  Hockey has been money for me. It is one sport a guy can win at......! Art...! You over think the match ups! Dont get your self in battle games (top team match ups). Pick your spots and the money will come.......Art your plays that I have see dont make sense...... You have to reset....GL Art

 
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Posted: #8
Guys, please don't spook Art.  We're in this forum for entertainment as well and he certainly provides us that.

-DB
 
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Posted: #9
I can totally understand where your coming from, I believe it does affect the game a bit.  With that being said try betting baseball lol, football killed me this year, not at first but about halfway thru nothing seemed right, personally I like betting playoff games in any sport because it seems that players actually try harder in those situations which in my opinion are easier to read.  There are many things to read these days, one thing I have learned is to never bet high money lines, sometimes I feel like they're all a set-up.  A great reason for all us to stick together and keep helping each other out and I Thank each and everyone of you for your input.  GL everybody, I'm taking Montreal today ;-)
 
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Posted: #10

I started playing Hockey on the 4th of December I was hitting 70% of my picks until the 28th of December. Since that date I have picked 18 games and have went 9-9. Since all but one of my last 18 picks were favorites the juice is starting to take away a lot of the winnings. The thing that bugs me the most is since I have been doing this I am 0-9 in shootouts. The favorites are losing a lot of shootouts. Is this common in hockey? In statistics  

Love the Forum

 
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Posted: #11
really your gonna call yourself the best?... newsflash... your not... the best wouldnt tell you hes the best either... not saying I'm anything but your not close to the best okay buddy
 
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Posted: #12
im kinda glad you got burned with your ridiculous attitude, like nothing is ever 100% in sports 
 
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Posted: #13
Art, thanks for the thoughtful words. You'll always be the best in our collective hearts. 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by ArtBell:


Coming off an amazingly profitable 2013 betting campaign, yesterday was my single worst day ever as an NHL bettor. I lost 50% of my 2014 NHL bankroll just like that. Sharks screwed me but the Canucks absolutely destroyed me. My temper got the worst of me after losing.

I've been taking the Vancouver Canucks recently as live dogs and have been right on my predictive pre-game betting analysis. Capping the game to a T only to get screwed over in the 3rd period late with under a minute to go.

Somethings not right. Right now I would advise NHL cappers to refrain from betting because this whole Olympics on the horizon is compounding matters. Teams suddenly lighting up the scoreboard games going way over projected O/U lines. 

Even the best go on funks. Thankfully I have the bankroll to sustain these horrendous downturns. 

I'm not making this post to whine or complain but rather to warn you that any bets should be placed after the Olympics when things return to normal. Betting now is just asking for trouble and essentially just flipping a coin or throwing darts on the board

- Art

Some of your plays are reasonable some of the time.

The problem is that you consistently recommend betting 25% of your serious bankroll on ONE play.

This is a SURE path to the destruction of your bankroll.
\
In the past couple of months, in reply to your money management techiques, I have gone into detail as to WHY this is the obvious truth, so I won't repeat it here.

But...is it really surprising to hear that you lost 50% of your bankroll on 2 games?  Obviously not.

If you have, for example, a 50%-50% possible play, and you bet it with 25% of your bankroll...

Then, simultaneously bet a second game with that is 50-50, and bet is with 25% of your same initial bankroll.

This is your typical recommendation here.

About 25% of the time, you will WIN both bets.

About 50% of the time, you will break even.

About 25% of the time, you will LOSE both bets.

This is simple probability math.

If you do NOT understand the math I have outlined here, you shouldn't expect to increase your bankroll even if you are the best handicapper in the world.

I am FOR SURE correct.  Although I am not a mathematician, I have studied plenty of math and statistics, and thousands and thousands of mathematicians the world over would confirm that I am correct.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by JohnAnalyzer:


Some of your plays are reasonable some of the time.

The problem is that you consistently recommend betting 25% of your serious bankroll on ONE play.

This is a SURE path to the destruction of your bankroll.
\
In the past couple of months, in reply to your money management techiques, I have gone into detail as to WHY this is the obvious truth, so I won't repeat it here.

But...is it really surprising to hear that you lost 50% of your bankroll on 2 games?  Obviously not.

If you have, for example, a 50%-50% possible play, and you bet it with 25% of your bankroll...

Then, simultaneously bet a second game with that is 50-50, and bet is with 25% of your same initial bankroll.

This is your typical recommendation here.

About 25% of the time, you will WIN both bets.

About 50% of the time, you will break even.

About 25% of the time, you will LOSE both bets.

This is simple probability math.

If you do NOT understand the math I have outlined here, you shouldn't expect to increase your bankroll even if you are the best handicapper in the world.

I am FOR SURE correct.  Although I am not a mathematician, I have studied plenty of math and statistics, and thousands and thousands of mathematicians the world over would confirm that I am correct.

To further clarify, when I said, above:

"About 25% of the time, you will LOSE both bets."

This means 25% of your bankroll which is YOUR typical recommended betting amount + 25% of your bankroll = 50% of your bankroll will be LOST by you, approximately one-quarter (25%) of the time.

Is 25% of the time a rare event?  Quite obviously, not.

The way YOU, sir, recommend your bet sizing, you can for sure expect to LOSE 50% of your bankroll about one-quarter of the time.

Why would you be upset about that if you understand the simple probability math I have outlined here?

Don't be upset.  Expect the for sure results I have described here...

...that is, if you continue to bet 25% of your bankroll on most of your plays.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

Can you just post your picks anyways?   You are a VERY VALUABLE ASSET to this forum!!!  Anyone who goes opposite of you wins !!!!!!






 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:

He posted his last play in the Penalty Box so none of us could fade and win  

Speak for yourself

I know I faded the play, Im guessing Weeble and many others did too>

had to sweat it out a little, but the fade cashed
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