Is it always bad to bet HUGE MONEY LINE ?

I know most people will automatically say it's dumb to bet, say a -3500 college football favorite. You are obviously risking disaster to win a relatively small amount. But sometimes these plays are +EV. 

Im not suggesting just getting every huge favorite but rather picking your spots where you think the -3500 had a 99% shot of winning or a -1200 ML with a 95% shot. 

I have been doing really well this season this way. Maybe it's just luck. Maybe there just haven't been any big upsets yet this year.

Just wondering opinions here. Is it a bet as long as you think it's +EV or is a 3% return (-3300) just not worth it either way. 

Despite low probability, anything can happen in sports.  In the long term, a few big losses can ruin entire profits from risking high stakes on low payout moneyline bets.  Less risky and stressful to bet low stakes on high number of pointspread games that require over 53% win rate to profit.

Every bet that has value/+EV is a good bet.  Period.  James Holzhauer once bet $50k to win $500 that Griffey Jr. would be elected to the hall of fame.  Do the math - that was a -10,000 ML bet, and a good value at that.

@bluecompass

 At what point in Griffeys career was that bet offered? James, Mr. Jeopardy, was/is quite the sports gambler I understand

@mrusso

 Be safe with that nasty weather headed your way brother.

So, if your talking betting -1200 type games in college football then your looking at lines around -18 to -20.

Look at the chart here provided BoydBets. Data is a bit old I believe, but it does show for lines, -18, -18.5, -19, -19.5, and -20, there were 1170 games and 104 dogs won outright. 

https://www.boydsbets.com/how-often-the-point-spread-comes-into-play-in-college-football/

At -1200 you need 12 wins for every 1 loss to break even. 1170/104 = one outta every 11.33 a dog wins outright. 

Unless your really good at recognizing when the dog has a chance, playing this way will lose in the long run.

Just for the hell of it I thumbed through my Phil Steele College Football mag and looked at last year's games where the spread was in-between-18 to -20.

There were 52 games I saw that fit. Four games the dog won outright. That's 48/4 = 12, so at -1200 it would be a break even scenario for 2021.

The four games were Ark defeating Bama, South Carolina defeating Florida, Northern Illinois defeating Georgia Tech, and New Mexico defeating Wyoming. 

youre a moron lmao seek help 

please actually post your picks here in this thread and i will fade away. lets make it a challenge eh?

@EuroPro

Ok let's do it. It will be in the college football forum. 

Big red was the number 2 salesman for his company the last 8 years running…..

you’re the number 2 Baltimore Ravens fan here on this site for as long as you choose to post ….

big red will always be #1 for that , till infinity , or at least till Jesus comes back for the second time and rips everything up and starts over …..

like a nudie doodle in some 8th grade kid’s science notebook after he decides that the chick he drew didn’t have big enough tits ….

@EuroPro 

Can I play too?

GFY.

Ben what you said was short , sweet , and to the point , like backseat sex with a hooker ….

except I’m not scratching new grooves into my sack because of itchiness or irritation , I’m simply just scratching my head …

Like a little old lady looking into a sad marginally filled hamburger bun …. Where’s the beef ?

you are the 3 letter assassin though ….

you’re killin’ em brother , God bless 

Karen, Alpha, beta…….

 GFY.

I'm not 100% sure, but I think the bet was made early in 2016, the first year that Griffey Jr. was on the ballot.

thank the lord!!!!!!

looks like hes ready for the challenge brother!!!

NEVER met a HIGH JUICE bettor in any sport that was successful 

Any covers capper finna prove me wrong with recipts ( posts over a large sample size !!!!

*receipts 

@Danny9999

 Question:

A -3300 money line would have to be on a team thats at least a -50 point favorite.What Book is offering such a Golden Ticket if it actually existed??

I'll wager that OP can't answer. 5-1.

@666LES

 I don't know where you're getting your numbers.  Looking at BM right now, BYU is -24.5 and -2800.  UGA is -28.5 and -6000.  

@bluecompass

 BM is ???

@666LES

 Bookmaker 

Those are Monsterous Overlays

A -24 fav. should be about -1400.A -28 fav should be about -1600.

If you bet a -3300 fav and Lay $100,000,your payoff is about $3000.

I bet a -18.5 favorite ML -1300 (I wasn't the 1st to hit it) and layed $65,000 to Win $5000.It was a Sure Thing so you decide.I considered it a 7.5% CD that paid off in 4 hours.