i missed practically all of the only good game of the day. no sympathy for schwartz. the team isn't well coached, they are undisciplined, suh is still doing stupid shit, the defense isn't any good, etc. but that rule is so dumb. the guy throws a challenge flag on a huge play that was so obviously called wrong and the rules won't let him challenge it because the red flag is redundant? that's a childish stupid rule. that may have cost detroit the game and there's no reason for such a harsh sanction. between the horrible refs in the nfl and some of the new rules, you really have to shake your head.
after dallas's perfroamcen, you might think they are done but they aren't. this division is anyone's for the taking, anyone but philly, of course. and looking at the schedules, the cowboys and redskins might be favorites ahead of the giants.
i still think the giants take it. washington's defense isn't good enough and dallas is too inconsistent. i do expect the giants to treat this week as a must win game and probably one they do win.
i also think this division belongs to the redskins over the next couple of years as long as the ownership doesn't fuck it up (big if) and RG3 doesn't go the cam newton route which i doubt he will since he's more talented and much smarter than newton. the two shouldn't be compared.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
first, some commets about thursday
the jets. i think that covers that game.
i missed practically all of the only good game of the day. no sympathy for schwartz. the team isn't well coached, they are undisciplined, suh is still doing stupid shit, the defense isn't any good, etc. but that rule is so dumb. the guy throws a challenge flag on a huge play that was so obviously called wrong and the rules won't let him challenge it because the red flag is redundant? that's a childish stupid rule. that may have cost detroit the game and there's no reason for such a harsh sanction. between the horrible refs in the nfl and some of the new rules, you really have to shake your head.
after dallas's perfroamcen, you might think they are done but they aren't. this division is anyone's for the taking, anyone but philly, of course. and looking at the schedules, the cowboys and redskins might be favorites ahead of the giants.
i still think the giants take it. washington's defense isn't good enough and dallas is too inconsistent. i do expect the giants to treat this week as a must win game and probably one they do win.
i also think this division belongs to the redskins over the next couple of years as long as the ownership doesn't fuck it up (big if) and RG3 doesn't go the cam newton route which i doubt he will since he's more talented and much smarter than newton. the two shouldn't be compared.
Oak @ CIncy -9- what? i don't get this line. every wek or os, i have to say that tea x shouldn't be favored by some number over anyone. that's my reaction to this one. i understand the raiders have been a mess their last few games, particularly their defense, but i just don't think can bet on cincy knowing i need a double digit win to cover. there's really nothing good to say about oakland other than the fact that they've had a few good games mixed in with several disasters. as for cincy, they are really only one game removed from a 4 game losing streak. sure, that was a nice win against the giants but beating the chiefs last week means nothing these days. even the raiders did that. so, based on the last several weeks, why is cincy favored by 9- over anyone?
the one thing i don't like is that cincy has played a tough schedule and when they've played he bad teams (only twice) they've covered easily against Jax and KC. that may be enough to keep me off of oakland. few teams have played as tough a schedule as cincy and they are right there for a playoff spot. they know they'll need this one to keep pace with pitt and to overtake indy once they fall off, which they will.
i can see a backdoor cover here but cincy has proven to be strong enough against the worst teams so this is probably one to avoid unless you think the raiders play this week like they have the last three, but we never assume that, if anything, we assume the opposite unless it's clear the team has quit like tampa last year or KC this year.
Pitt -1 @ Clev - we love the browns, they fight hard every week and got the easy cover last week. the problem is they also seem to lose every week and at some point, when there isn't much to play for, you have to figure they run out of energy. they aren't covering on talent so much as they are covering on having more motivation than the other team.
although last week was probably a tough loss to take, they will definitely be up for this one against their division rival. unfortunately for the browns, leftwich is out and batch is in. can someone tell me why batch is 4rd string and leftwish was second? they didn't answer that in the game last week that i heard.
anyway, i like the browns team but mainly as a dog of at least 3 against a team that might take them for granted. of course, the other two times cleveland had a line of around 1 one way or the other, they won outright and we were there. eprhaps with no other team does vegas seem to tell us when they are going to win. of course, those games were against cincy and san diego.
but here, the line is probably due to pittsburgh's injuries and the fact that people have caught on that cleveland is no easy out for anyone.
if you wan tto keep reading the lin and figure this one sends a message that cleveland wins, i can appreciate that. if you see pitt as the better team in a key game (although not quite a must win game) and feel comfortable with batch who has a ton of experience and is one of the better backups in the league, that makes sense too.
for me, i'd lean to cleveland but i don't want to push my luck with them here. this one feels different than their cincy and chargers wins. i'd like pitt more if i can get an explanation as to why batch didn't start last week. leftwich is so bad. batch is pretty good. is there something wrong with him? i'm not clear about what pitt is up to so i'll probably just stay away although i'm going to look into this one more before i decide.
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Oak @ CIncy -9- what? i don't get this line. every wek or os, i have to say that tea x shouldn't be favored by some number over anyone. that's my reaction to this one. i understand the raiders have been a mess their last few games, particularly their defense, but i just don't think can bet on cincy knowing i need a double digit win to cover. there's really nothing good to say about oakland other than the fact that they've had a few good games mixed in with several disasters. as for cincy, they are really only one game removed from a 4 game losing streak. sure, that was a nice win against the giants but beating the chiefs last week means nothing these days. even the raiders did that. so, based on the last several weeks, why is cincy favored by 9- over anyone?
the one thing i don't like is that cincy has played a tough schedule and when they've played he bad teams (only twice) they've covered easily against Jax and KC. that may be enough to keep me off of oakland. few teams have played as tough a schedule as cincy and they are right there for a playoff spot. they know they'll need this one to keep pace with pitt and to overtake indy once they fall off, which they will.
i can see a backdoor cover here but cincy has proven to be strong enough against the worst teams so this is probably one to avoid unless you think the raiders play this week like they have the last three, but we never assume that, if anything, we assume the opposite unless it's clear the team has quit like tampa last year or KC this year.
Pitt -1 @ Clev - we love the browns, they fight hard every week and got the easy cover last week. the problem is they also seem to lose every week and at some point, when there isn't much to play for, you have to figure they run out of energy. they aren't covering on talent so much as they are covering on having more motivation than the other team.
although last week was probably a tough loss to take, they will definitely be up for this one against their division rival. unfortunately for the browns, leftwich is out and batch is in. can someone tell me why batch is 4rd string and leftwish was second? they didn't answer that in the game last week that i heard.
anyway, i like the browns team but mainly as a dog of at least 3 against a team that might take them for granted. of course, the other two times cleveland had a line of around 1 one way or the other, they won outright and we were there. eprhaps with no other team does vegas seem to tell us when they are going to win. of course, those games were against cincy and san diego.
but here, the line is probably due to pittsburgh's injuries and the fact that people have caught on that cleveland is no easy out for anyone.
if you wan tto keep reading the lin and figure this one sends a message that cleveland wins, i can appreciate that. if you see pitt as the better team in a key game (although not quite a must win game) and feel comfortable with batch who has a ton of experience and is one of the better backups in the league, that makes sense too.
for me, i'd lean to cleveland but i don't want to push my luck with them here. this one feels different than their cincy and chargers wins. i'd like pitt more if i can get an explanation as to why batch didn't start last week. leftwich is so bad. batch is pretty good. is there something wrong with him? i'm not clear about what pitt is up to so i'll probably just stay away although i'm going to look into this one more before i decide.
Buff @ Indy -3 we were so proud of ourselves at the home office of ClubDirtSports.com last week when we won our first huge favorite in as long as we can remember with the patriots over the colts. the main reason we bet it is we don't think the colts are any good. they won some games behind a good young qb qho keeps the team motivated and the coach issue, but that won't last into the final stretch. after the first few games, we handicap based on perceived motivation and situations much more than talent but we also keep an eye on teams playing well above their talent level for when they may come down to earth.
the colts were a prime candidate last week. but that was the patriots and this is buffalo, the team we probably have the worst read on going back to last season. three things in buffalo's favor, 1) a few extra days rest, 2) there should be motivation from a nice win and still having a shot at the playoffs and 3) we think they are the better team. earlier in the season, we thought buffalo would be a playoff team but thought they might need some time to get their players on the same page. we thought that might take a few weeks but here it is in week 12 and they are still losing often.
but the last three weeks have been tough- @ houston, @ NE and vs. miami. this is a definite step down in quality. this is a good test to see if buffalo can make a run for the playoffs or are just not good enough and not well coached enough to put some wins together. they can easily still make the playoffs looking at their schedule. with a win here, they will likely be favored in 4 of their last 5 games.
so, this is a pivotal game for buffalo. i think they are good enough to win it, keeping in mind i'm terrible at figuring out this team.
nothing has changed for me with the colts. i'm ust not seeing how this team is good. luck is good but the rest of the offense is pretty average. the defense is worse than average. the sick coach motivational angle can only take them so far.
like last week, i'm going against the colts. last week's number was pretty good for the patriots. this week's number is better.
will the bills darn me like they usually do?
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Buff @ Indy -3 we were so proud of ourselves at the home office of ClubDirtSports.com last week when we won our first huge favorite in as long as we can remember with the patriots over the colts. the main reason we bet it is we don't think the colts are any good. they won some games behind a good young qb qho keeps the team motivated and the coach issue, but that won't last into the final stretch. after the first few games, we handicap based on perceived motivation and situations much more than talent but we also keep an eye on teams playing well above their talent level for when they may come down to earth.
the colts were a prime candidate last week. but that was the patriots and this is buffalo, the team we probably have the worst read on going back to last season. three things in buffalo's favor, 1) a few extra days rest, 2) there should be motivation from a nice win and still having a shot at the playoffs and 3) we think they are the better team. earlier in the season, we thought buffalo would be a playoff team but thought they might need some time to get their players on the same page. we thought that might take a few weeks but here it is in week 12 and they are still losing often.
but the last three weeks have been tough- @ houston, @ NE and vs. miami. this is a definite step down in quality. this is a good test to see if buffalo can make a run for the playoffs or are just not good enough and not well coached enough to put some wins together. they can easily still make the playoffs looking at their schedule. with a win here, they will likely be favored in 4 of their last 5 games.
so, this is a pivotal game for buffalo. i think they are good enough to win it, keeping in mind i'm terrible at figuring out this team.
nothing has changed for me with the colts. i'm ust not seeing how this team is good. luck is good but the rest of the offense is pretty average. the defense is worse than average. the sick coach motivational angle can only take them so far.
like last week, i'm going against the colts. last week's number was pretty good for the patriots. this week's number is better.
Tenn -4 @ Jax - no tennessee should not be favored by 4 over anyone, particularly not on the road. i didn't watch them beat miami last week 37-3 on the road but i imagine that had a lot to do with this line. if someone watched it and can tell me that tennessee is for real, then i will reconsider my position on tennessee as a 4 point road favorite. but this looks to me like a team ranked near the bottom in pass defense and run defense. they've been able to put up some points on offense but johnson isn't reliable and neither is their qb situation. seems like a big gamble betting on tennessee here.
i wrote off jacksonville after getting killed at home against indy on TNF two weeks ago. that was probably their most pathetic performance because that was a team they could beat. of course last week they actually play hard and cover easily in a very strange game. henne is starting this one. in any given week, there probably isn't much difference between henne and gabbert but henne has a higher ceiling and the key is, especially after last week, not that henne is anything special, but i bet jacksonville opens up the offense against a weak defense. that should give the team some confidence that they never have with gabbert throwing 5 yard outs every play. so, i like the henne factor because he's has more potential and because i expect a better offensive gameplan than the most conservative offense in the league that jacksonville puts out most weeks.
so, i can see jax putting up a big number and covering this week with some bigger pass plays and getting blackmon more involved. or, i can see jacksonville falling flat if henne sucks like he often does and jax gets hammered trying to win a shootout which they've shown no ability to do in their recent history.
my guess is this is a decent spot to play jax. another thought is to play n over prop on blackmon if there is one as jax opens up the offense and he gets more involved. let's see what getty has to say.
Atl -1 @ TB - our belief that atlanta is overrated has finally been paying off the last two weeks. i'm torn here because i'm looking to bet against atlanta in the second half but i don't like tampa much either. however, i think we need to change our thinking on tampa. they haven't played too many good teams and they really only have one strong win, but they are running the ball well and playing good run defense and that gives them a chance to cover each week.
if you look at the schedules, tampa really doesn't look good at all. they got beat up by the very weak nfc east and then beat the other shitty teams they've played, except new orleans, who was still a mess in week 7 but did beat tampa.
atlanta, on the other hand, is 3-0 vs the nfc east and also has a nice win against denver in there.
plus, with atlanta having come back down to earth and tampa looking better than we think they really are, this is some pretty good line value. as much as i don't like to do it, i think tl might have to be a play here.
Sea -2- @ Mia- i can go on and on about how great seattle is at home and suspect on the road, unless they have a great matchup against a horrible defense, as they did @ carolina. but i'm just going to look at one thing here. why is seattle favored in this game and by 2- which seems to be asking people to buy that expensive half point to get miami at +3. i understand that miami has lost 3 in a row but with the exception of that strangte tennessee score, they have been solid at home. and this is the dreaded east coast trip for the 10:00 am local start time for the seahawks. this looks like they are begging people to take miami. i'm not going to do it.
Blt -1 @ SD - two weeks ago, i was looking for SD to start their usual second half playoff run. playing an overrated tampa team seemd like the best time to do it. but they klost. and then they are down big to denver the next week. so, the playoff run doesn't look like it's coming, although both playoff spots are wide open in the afc. i don't know what to make of the chargers. every season, they start off terrible and end very well. but much of that is due to bad coaching so you have to figure a season where they start and end poorly is more likely than one where they actually play well all season.
but you have the team with the second best record in the afc playing a 4-6 chargers disaster and there's a one point spread. Blt should win but that line is psyching me out. i'll probably stay away.
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Tenn -4 @ Jax - no tennessee should not be favored by 4 over anyone, particularly not on the road. i didn't watch them beat miami last week 37-3 on the road but i imagine that had a lot to do with this line. if someone watched it and can tell me that tennessee is for real, then i will reconsider my position on tennessee as a 4 point road favorite. but this looks to me like a team ranked near the bottom in pass defense and run defense. they've been able to put up some points on offense but johnson isn't reliable and neither is their qb situation. seems like a big gamble betting on tennessee here.
i wrote off jacksonville after getting killed at home against indy on TNF two weeks ago. that was probably their most pathetic performance because that was a team they could beat. of course last week they actually play hard and cover easily in a very strange game. henne is starting this one. in any given week, there probably isn't much difference between henne and gabbert but henne has a higher ceiling and the key is, especially after last week, not that henne is anything special, but i bet jacksonville opens up the offense against a weak defense. that should give the team some confidence that they never have with gabbert throwing 5 yard outs every play. so, i like the henne factor because he's has more potential and because i expect a better offensive gameplan than the most conservative offense in the league that jacksonville puts out most weeks.
so, i can see jax putting up a big number and covering this week with some bigger pass plays and getting blackmon more involved. or, i can see jacksonville falling flat if henne sucks like he often does and jax gets hammered trying to win a shootout which they've shown no ability to do in their recent history.
my guess is this is a decent spot to play jax. another thought is to play n over prop on blackmon if there is one as jax opens up the offense and he gets more involved. let's see what getty has to say.
Atl -1 @ TB - our belief that atlanta is overrated has finally been paying off the last two weeks. i'm torn here because i'm looking to bet against atlanta in the second half but i don't like tampa much either. however, i think we need to change our thinking on tampa. they haven't played too many good teams and they really only have one strong win, but they are running the ball well and playing good run defense and that gives them a chance to cover each week.
if you look at the schedules, tampa really doesn't look good at all. they got beat up by the very weak nfc east and then beat the other shitty teams they've played, except new orleans, who was still a mess in week 7 but did beat tampa.
atlanta, on the other hand, is 3-0 vs the nfc east and also has a nice win against denver in there.
plus, with atlanta having come back down to earth and tampa looking better than we think they really are, this is some pretty good line value. as much as i don't like to do it, i think tl might have to be a play here.
Sea -2- @ Mia- i can go on and on about how great seattle is at home and suspect on the road, unless they have a great matchup against a horrible defense, as they did @ carolina. but i'm just going to look at one thing here. why is seattle favored in this game and by 2- which seems to be asking people to buy that expensive half point to get miami at +3. i understand that miami has lost 3 in a row but with the exception of that strangte tennessee score, they have been solid at home. and this is the dreaded east coast trip for the 10:00 am local start time for the seahawks. this looks like they are begging people to take miami. i'm not going to do it.
Blt -1 @ SD - two weeks ago, i was looking for SD to start their usual second half playoff run. playing an overrated tampa team seemd like the best time to do it. but they klost. and then they are down big to denver the next week. so, the playoff run doesn't look like it's coming, although both playoff spots are wide open in the afc. i don't know what to make of the chargers. every season, they start off terrible and end very well. but much of that is due to bad coaching so you have to figure a season where they start and end poorly is more likely than one where they actually play well all season.
but you have the team with the second best record in the afc playing a 4-6 chargers disaster and there's a one point spread. Blt should win but that line is psyching me out. i'll probably stay away.
SF -1 @ No - if kaepernick was starting because smith was still hurt, then i'd be on the saints here. but it looks like kaepernick is now the new starter regardless of smith's health. that makes me lean to the saints. why? because people ten to overrate a qb's importance and performance based on insignficiatn sampel sizes. this is sort of the reverse of when i often play on a team after an especially bad performance on MNF or SNF. kaepernick destroyed the great bears defense in prime time for everyone to see. and harbaugh names him the starter over a qb who didn nothing but lead SF to what i believe would have been a super bowl win if not for fuckin kyle williams last seasons.
it just seems like an overreaction and we like betting against overreactions.
two reservations. 1) when a bad coach makes a move like this, i feel a lot better betting against it. harbaugh is without a doubt one of the top coaches in the league. he knows what he is doing and it's hard to assume he isn't thinking this through. and two, i'm still not sold on the saints which means i'd be betting them at basically even against a team i believe is much better than they are. the sains are on a nice three game winning streak with a solid win against atlanta in there but this is a defensive mismatch and i hate to be on the wrong side of that unless i'm getting a lot of points.
and then again, you have the angle that SF is coming off a huge game and maybe their best performance of the season and now go on the road with a new QB and play in a tough venue against a great offense.
there's a lot to consider in this one. i'll probably be on the saints but i'm not ready to pull the trigger yet.
Stl @ Az -1 Az got it done last week against an inflated spread but they've still lost 6 in a row including an ugly loss at Stl. Stl embarrassed themselves last week by losing badly to the jets. they haven';t won in 5 games with a tie thrown in there. so, neither team has anyting impressive to discuss lately.
as much as we like Stl ats most weeks, they already beat Az pretty badly at home. Az probably doesn't have much to motivate them but that might be enough. it's hard for a team to beat a divisional opponent twice in the same season when there isn't much of a talent difference between them. i could easily see Az evening this series out. that's not a good reason t make a bet though. i'll probably stay away. one or both of these teams could come out with no motivation here and there's no way to know which it will be.
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SF -1 @ No - if kaepernick was starting because smith was still hurt, then i'd be on the saints here. but it looks like kaepernick is now the new starter regardless of smith's health. that makes me lean to the saints. why? because people ten to overrate a qb's importance and performance based on insignficiatn sampel sizes. this is sort of the reverse of when i often play on a team after an especially bad performance on MNF or SNF. kaepernick destroyed the great bears defense in prime time for everyone to see. and harbaugh names him the starter over a qb who didn nothing but lead SF to what i believe would have been a super bowl win if not for fuckin kyle williams last seasons.
it just seems like an overreaction and we like betting against overreactions.
two reservations. 1) when a bad coach makes a move like this, i feel a lot better betting against it. harbaugh is without a doubt one of the top coaches in the league. he knows what he is doing and it's hard to assume he isn't thinking this through. and two, i'm still not sold on the saints which means i'd be betting them at basically even against a team i believe is much better than they are. the sains are on a nice three game winning streak with a solid win against atlanta in there but this is a defensive mismatch and i hate to be on the wrong side of that unless i'm getting a lot of points.
and then again, you have the angle that SF is coming off a huge game and maybe their best performance of the season and now go on the road with a new QB and play in a tough venue against a great offense.
there's a lot to consider in this one. i'll probably be on the saints but i'm not ready to pull the trigger yet.
Stl @ Az -1 Az got it done last week against an inflated spread but they've still lost 6 in a row including an ugly loss at Stl. Stl embarrassed themselves last week by losing badly to the jets. they haven';t won in 5 games with a tie thrown in there. so, neither team has anyting impressive to discuss lately.
as much as we like Stl ats most weeks, they already beat Az pretty badly at home. Az probably doesn't have much to motivate them but that might be enough. it's hard for a team to beat a divisional opponent twice in the same season when there isn't much of a talent difference between them. i could easily see Az evening this series out. that's not a good reason t make a bet though. i'll probably stay away. one or both of these teams could come out with no motivation here and there's no way to know which it will be.
GB @ NYG -3 as i indicated in the first post, although the giants on top of the afc east, they know their schedule is the hardest by far the rest of the way. NO, @ Wash, @ Atl, @ Blt, those are some tough matchups. are they going to go 3-1 there? they'd have to play their best to do better than 2-2 and they haven't been playing their best recently.
but the giants come off their bye with a good coach in a huge game they really need to be motivated to win. the giants are notorious for looking flat a week or two and then coming back strong. and when they come back strong, they can beat anyone. so, we should get a good effort from them here.
GB has been coasting along against some weak competition since blowing out houston. with the bye week in there, they haven't been tested since mid-october. they are in a battle with chicago for the division so they won't lay down in somewhat of a revenge game but i think the situation favors the giants. i wish this line was 2, but i understand why it isn't.
basically, GB has the quality edge but the home field off a bye with a solid coach and the motivational edge goes to the giants. they'll likely be a play at 3.
the MNF game is atrocious. but it should be fun to watch. i can't imagine betting on it.
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GB @ NYG -3 as i indicated in the first post, although the giants on top of the afc east, they know their schedule is the hardest by far the rest of the way. NO, @ Wash, @ Atl, @ Blt, those are some tough matchups. are they going to go 3-1 there? they'd have to play their best to do better than 2-2 and they haven't been playing their best recently.
but the giants come off their bye with a good coach in a huge game they really need to be motivated to win. the giants are notorious for looking flat a week or two and then coming back strong. and when they come back strong, they can beat anyone. so, we should get a good effort from them here.
GB has been coasting along against some weak competition since blowing out houston. with the bye week in there, they haven't been tested since mid-october. they are in a battle with chicago for the division so they won't lay down in somewhat of a revenge game but i think the situation favors the giants. i wish this line was 2, but i understand why it isn't.
basically, GB has the quality edge but the home field off a bye with a solid coach and the motivational edge goes to the giants. they'll likely be a play at 3.
the MNF game is atrocious. but it should be fun to watch. i can't imagine betting on it.
one more, pinnacle doesn't have a line up but i like this game so i'll mention it.
Minn @ Chc - after that brutal performance last week, i looked ahead to see who the bears are playing this week. remember, a tam, is never as good or bad as they look at their best or worst, except maybe the chiefs which i can't explain at all. the bears defense couldn't stop a 2nd year qb in his first start5 or the SF running game which is very good. on offense, campbell couldn't do anything. capmpbell didn't do anything against houston the week before either. but those are possibly the two best defenses in the league. this is different.
campbell isn't good but he isn't as bad as he's looked the last two weeks. and the bears defense surely has enough pride to come back strong after their worst performance in a long time on MNF for everyone to see. so, this is a great bounceback situation for chicago at home with a deflated line (we suspect) due to the campbell factor which isn't as significant as people think.
i'm glad to see chicago is playing minnesota this week. they are better than expected but not great. ponder is a big question mark and he'll be facing a pissed off defense this week. i expect minnesota to struggle a lot on offense. minnesota coming off a game against a very weak detroit defense then a bye and then the biggest road test for their inconsistent offense. i like that situation for the bears.
and with the bears tied with GB and only 1 game up on the bears, the bears should be treating this as a huge game, possibly the biggest game of the year because if they really need a home game or two in the playoffs.
the big question mark of course is whether cutler will play or not. if it's campbell, i expect to see the lin at -4 and i'll play the bears. i'll play them up to 5- and possibly 6. if it's cutler, the line should be -7 and i don't know if i'll play it. i might do something like a minnesota TT under although those kinds of bets are what got me in trouble last season rather than the simplified side bets this season that have been much better. i guess we'll know soon.
good luck
ClubDirtSports.com - "Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away."
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one more, pinnacle doesn't have a line up but i like this game so i'll mention it.
Minn @ Chc - after that brutal performance last week, i looked ahead to see who the bears are playing this week. remember, a tam, is never as good or bad as they look at their best or worst, except maybe the chiefs which i can't explain at all. the bears defense couldn't stop a 2nd year qb in his first start5 or the SF running game which is very good. on offense, campbell couldn't do anything. capmpbell didn't do anything against houston the week before either. but those are possibly the two best defenses in the league. this is different.
campbell isn't good but he isn't as bad as he's looked the last two weeks. and the bears defense surely has enough pride to come back strong after their worst performance in a long time on MNF for everyone to see. so, this is a great bounceback situation for chicago at home with a deflated line (we suspect) due to the campbell factor which isn't as significant as people think.
i'm glad to see chicago is playing minnesota this week. they are better than expected but not great. ponder is a big question mark and he'll be facing a pissed off defense this week. i expect minnesota to struggle a lot on offense. minnesota coming off a game against a very weak detroit defense then a bye and then the biggest road test for their inconsistent offense. i like that situation for the bears.
and with the bears tied with GB and only 1 game up on the bears, the bears should be treating this as a huge game, possibly the biggest game of the year because if they really need a home game or two in the playoffs.
the big question mark of course is whether cutler will play or not. if it's campbell, i expect to see the lin at -4 and i'll play the bears. i'll play them up to 5- and possibly 6. if it's cutler, the line should be -7 and i don't know if i'll play it. i might do something like a minnesota TT under although those kinds of bets are what got me in trouble last season rather than the simplified side bets this season that have been much better. i guess we'll know soon.
good luck
ClubDirtSports.com - "Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away."
looks like Harvin is out, Cutler is in. if the Vikings have problems moving the rock on the ground, they will be in trouble.
took Steelers right away, Browns just can't beat these guys. Batch is better than Leftwich imo.
Henne looks like an upgrade over Gabbert, but no MJD. Jags gotta win one at home this year don't they? not sure.
love to take Chargers as a pick em, but i just can't trust Rivers right now, he might be partially colour blind.
g.l. man
So Jalen Parmele isn't good enough for you ?
Cinci in a rout, Buffalo outscores Indy, Jacksonville wins where they haven't all year, Seattle pummels the beaching Dolphins, and the Saints are playing as well as anyone in the league right now.
Damn, that was quick work of what CD made pages of. Thanks, CD. I'm the Cliff Notes version.
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Quote Originally Posted by metalbill:
looks like Harvin is out, Cutler is in. if the Vikings have problems moving the rock on the ground, they will be in trouble.
took Steelers right away, Browns just can't beat these guys. Batch is better than Leftwich imo.
Henne looks like an upgrade over Gabbert, but no MJD. Jags gotta win one at home this year don't they? not sure.
love to take Chargers as a pick em, but i just can't trust Rivers right now, he might be partially colour blind.
g.l. man
So Jalen Parmele isn't good enough for you ?
Cinci in a rout, Buffalo outscores Indy, Jacksonville wins where they haven't all year, Seattle pummels the beaching Dolphins, and the Saints are playing as well as anyone in the league right now.
Damn, that was quick work of what CD made pages of. Thanks, CD. I'm the Cliff Notes version.
Great ink...again...Getty Jags get drilled....nothing left after 5 quarters and losing..road team has covered all their road games this year....Henne falls to earth with a thud...
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Great ink...again...Getty Jags get drilled....nothing left after 5 quarters and losing..road team has covered all their road games this year....Henne falls to earth with a thud...
Cinci in a rout, Buffalo outscores Indy, Jacksonville wins where they haven't all year, Seattle pummels the beaching Dolphins, and the Saints are playing as well as anyone in the league right now.
Damn, that was quick work of what CD made pages of. Thanks, CD. I'm the Cliff Notes version.
i appreciate guys that put the effort into their write ups, i'm too lazy to do it. thought i would chime in, seeing how no one else was.
ohh wait, ya i'm just a degen, potty mouth, that has no morals, and doesn't know F.A. about football right? i gottcha man.
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
So Jalen Parmele isn't good enough for you ?
Cinci in a rout, Buffalo outscores Indy, Jacksonville wins where they haven't all year, Seattle pummels the beaching Dolphins, and the Saints are playing as well as anyone in the league right now.
Damn, that was quick work of what CD made pages of. Thanks, CD. I'm the Cliff Notes version.
i appreciate guys that put the effort into their write ups, i'm too lazy to do it. thought i would chime in, seeing how no one else was.
ohh wait, ya i'm just a degen, potty mouth, that has no morals, and doesn't know F.A. about football right? i gottcha man.
Not to be a simpleton, but; niners -7 w/ Smith as a starter against da Bears. Line moves immensely with no real factor. Second year qb on first start torches the leagues best defense. Terrible saints defense vs. above normal Niner offense gets compared to a substantially good Niner defense and its a pick em? 1 PST start time throws the east coast early start time capping factor out. I may be wrong and I may be a homer, but I have unleashed the hounds on this pickem game between the niners and saints. Good luck on the plays with the cdsportsnonswearingsportspicks.com plays. Hit them all.
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Not to be a simpleton, but; niners -7 w/ Smith as a starter against da Bears. Line moves immensely with no real factor. Second year qb on first start torches the leagues best defense. Terrible saints defense vs. above normal Niner offense gets compared to a substantially good Niner defense and its a pick em? 1 PST start time throws the east coast early start time capping factor out. I may be wrong and I may be a homer, but I have unleashed the hounds on this pickem game between the niners and saints. Good luck on the plays with the cdsportsnonswearingsportspicks.com plays. Hit them all.
Not to be a simpleton, but; niners -7 w/ Smith as a starter against da Bears. Line moves immensely with no real factor. Second year qb on first start torches the leagues best defense. Terrible saints defense vs. above normal Niner offense gets compared to a substantially good Niner defense and its a pick em? 1 PST start time throws the east coast early start time capping factor out. I may be wrong and I may be a homer, but I have unleashed the hounds on this pickem game between the niners and saints. Good luck on the plays with the cdsportsnonswearingsportspicks.com plays. Hit them all.
A homer I'm not, and all that you stated makes perfect sense To me. Does that mean the Niners are a shoe in? Of course not, no game ever is. I'm also willing to pay to find out why the lines not what it should be. The Niners are a much better team then they were last year when they faced the Saints in the play offs, and the Saints not as good on the ground or on D. Probably the top play of the week. BOL Lake
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Quote Originally Posted by LakeFavorite:
Not to be a simpleton, but; niners -7 w/ Smith as a starter against da Bears. Line moves immensely with no real factor. Second year qb on first start torches the leagues best defense. Terrible saints defense vs. above normal Niner offense gets compared to a substantially good Niner defense and its a pick em? 1 PST start time throws the east coast early start time capping factor out. I may be wrong and I may be a homer, but I have unleashed the hounds on this pickem game between the niners and saints. Good luck on the plays with the cdsportsnonswearingsportspicks.com plays. Hit them all.
A homer I'm not, and all that you stated makes perfect sense To me. Does that mean the Niners are a shoe in? Of course not, no game ever is. I'm also willing to pay to find out why the lines not what it should be. The Niners are a much better team then they were last year when they faced the Saints in the play offs, and the Saints not as good on the ground or on D. Probably the top play of the week. BOL Lake
Forgot to add, good read as usual CD. We've become accustomed to some of the best insights on weekly NFL match ups that are available at covers, and I for one, look forward to them every week.
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Forgot to add, good read as usual CD. We've become accustomed to some of the best insights on weekly NFL match ups that are available at covers, and I for one, look forward to them every week.
lake, that's a touch call, there are a lot of inteesting factors in the one, strange line, SF off a huge MNF win, what i think is an overreaction to kaepernick, but then we'd be fading the great harbaugh if we bet against SF based on that, the saints look good lately but no way they've completely turned around and at the end of the day, SF is the better team home or away and the line is -1.
with all that, usually i'd just stay away and i might but if i bet it, it will be the saints.
ClubDirtSports.com thanks you for abiding by the new chickenshit no profanity rules around here although i think we can say bullshit and that's a pretty decent word.
metalbill
gettty, king, shrimp, 22, Truck, J10, good luck today
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lake, that's a touch call, there are a lot of inteesting factors in the one, strange line, SF off a huge MNF win, what i think is an overreaction to kaepernick, but then we'd be fading the great harbaugh if we bet against SF based on that, the saints look good lately but no way they've completely turned around and at the end of the day, SF is the better team home or away and the line is -1.
with all that, usually i'd just stay away and i might but if i bet it, it will be the saints.
ClubDirtSports.com thanks you for abiding by the new chickenshit no profanity rules around here although i think we can say bullshit and that's a pretty decent word.
metalbill
gettty, king, shrimp, 22, Truck, J10, good luck today
in arizona, cardinals starting third strong QB, rookie ryan lindley. amendola out for the rams and they struggled on offense when he was hurt earlier in the season. still leaning towards the cardinals but probably not a good game to bet on.
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in arizona, cardinals starting third strong QB, rookie ryan lindley. amendola out for the rams and they struggled on offense when he was hurt earlier in the season. still leaning towards the cardinals but probably not a good game to bet on.
Steelers coming off of that heavyweight tilt against the Ravens, now have to go play the 'lowly' Browns.
Pitt coaches watch practice everyday, so they must have felt that Leftwich was better than Batch ... what does that say about Batch?!?!?!?
As noted above, Browns play hard every week, plus they get their stud CB, Joe Haden, back this week.
Ravens coming off emotional win vs Pitt, now travel cross country to play a team, albeit a shitty team, who is in a must-win situation. As much as I hate to back the Chargers, they appear to be a strong situational play.
Dolphins were playing teams tough for a stretch of games, but if you look at the numbers, they were doing it with smoke and mirrors. Simply put, miami's roster lacks any talent depth. I'm hesitant to back the Seahags on the road in the dreaded 1:00 time slot, but I just can't see miami scoring too often in this tilt.
I believe in the 49ers as being a legit SB contender, but there's just too much Kapernick love right now. Yes, he looked great on MNF, but that type of accuracy was not the norm during his college career. As good as he looked, I believe it was a slight abberation, and expect him to come down to earth a bit this week. Saints in (another) must-win game, plus have the revenge factor on their side.
bigreds daddy
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Steelers coming off of that heavyweight tilt against the Ravens, now have to go play the 'lowly' Browns.
Pitt coaches watch practice everyday, so they must have felt that Leftwich was better than Batch ... what does that say about Batch?!?!?!?
As noted above, Browns play hard every week, plus they get their stud CB, Joe Haden, back this week.
Ravens coming off emotional win vs Pitt, now travel cross country to play a team, albeit a shitty team, who is in a must-win situation. As much as I hate to back the Chargers, they appear to be a strong situational play.
Dolphins were playing teams tough for a stretch of games, but if you look at the numbers, they were doing it with smoke and mirrors. Simply put, miami's roster lacks any talent depth. I'm hesitant to back the Seahags on the road in the dreaded 1:00 time slot, but I just can't see miami scoring too often in this tilt.
I believe in the 49ers as being a legit SB contender, but there's just too much Kapernick love right now. Yes, he looked great on MNF, but that type of accuracy was not the norm during his college career. As good as he looked, I believe it was a slight abberation, and expect him to come down to earth a bit this week. Saints in (another) must-win game, plus have the revenge factor on their side.
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the jets. i think that covers that game.
Wisdom...
I'm also willing to pay to find out why the lines not what it should be. The Niners are a much better team then they were last year when they faced the Saints in the play offs, and the Saints not as good on the ground or on D. Probably the top play of the week. BOL 
Lake 
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