The gift that we now know

final installment of the ClibDirtSports.com newsletter.  i can tell you before looking at the schedule that i don't like it.  invariably, our favorite and best weeks are weeks 1-4 and our least favorite week is week 17.  we're always guessing to some degree but guessing which teams will show up and which teams will start their offseasons early is a proposition on which we do not like to have money wagered.

anyway, let's see what we have

NYJ @ Buff -3- after the jets missed out on the playoffs after that horrible game against tenn, we thought there might be one or two good opportunities to go against them.,  but playing SD at home and now buff did not qualify for us.  those are two teams that are as good candidates to quit as the jets.  more power to you if you won money betting on a norv turner coached team, to win on the road in week 16 in a meanignless game but we couldn't do it. 

same here.  the jets are a mess.  first, tebow asks out of the gameplan and then he says he didn't.  there always has to be a media tebow circus.  god forbid they attempt some analysis rather than the national inquirer bullshit.  for what it's worth, we side with tebow.  say what you want about whether he's a real nfl QB, but few guys have as good an attitude as he does.  if half of KC's team had the attitude tebow has, they'd probably be fighting for a playoff spot.  anyway, looks like he's finally getting out of that mess.  at least he didn't get injured this season.

the jets are going back to sanchez.  will he play pissed off, will the rest of the team give a shit, does it matter either way?  there are stories that ryan ran out of a meeting, there is a conflict between ryan and management.  all sorts of problems with this team.  no way would i bet them.

on the other side, i don't trust the bills here.  i can't say one good thing about either team here that isn't merely a criticism of the other.  no play.

ClubDirtSports.com

you may have to help me with which games mean something or not between playoff position or draft picks.  i think i know about playoff eligibility but i'm not sure abotut he rest.  i don't like week 17 and i haven't paid much attention this week.

Mia @ NE -10 - well, NE was true to form last week mailing in a game they had no reason to care about.  there's a decent chance belichik didn't even know Jax had an NFL team.  i suspect this game means something to NE as far as possible home field goes.  but again, NE doesn't always have a strong history of piling it on in these late season games.  at some point, they go into playoff mode and worry more anout gameplanning and matchups in the playoffs than winning easy games by double digits.

like we've mentioned the last two weeks, miami does have something tio play for.  after two tough matches against NE and SF, /500 was a real possibility with two winnable games and then this last one against a NE team that may not have nmuch to play for.  miami was 6-10 last season so 8-8 with a new coach and rookie QB would be a big deal, especially with the jets and bills going in the opposite direction.  based on that alone, i'd consider those points. 

Blt @ Cincy -1 the division title is Blt's but this one may have some relevancy to playoff positioning.  either way, hard to tell which team is focused on this game or staying healthy going into the playoffs.  Blt did get their big bounceback playoff type win last week but i'm guessing harbaugh wants another to gain some momentum.  finishing the season 1-4 against playoff teams is no way to go into the playoffs.  other than that, i suspect both teams want to win but are more worried about the playoffs.  i wouldn't play this one.

Hou -7 @ Indy - this is actually one we might play and if you've been reading the newsletter, you know we aren't sold on Indy.  from a motivational standpoint, i think this game is meaningless to the colts.  if they have the same record as the bengals, the colts are still the 5 seed.  so, it's hard to see the colts bringing too much energy to this game.  the colts are saying they are going to try but i'm not buying it.  if they lose, i think they are more likely to play denver than NE.  i bet they'd rather play denver than NE. 

Houston, on the other hand, needs the game for a couple of reasons.  first and most importantly, a win and i believe they get home field throughout. secondly, they are struggling right now losing 2 of 3 to playoff caliber teams.  they need a win to gain some momentum.  like Blt, going 1-3 against playoff teams is no way to go into the playoffs. 

hard to make a case for an indy play here.  houston is the better team with much more motivation.  if it was just home field, i'd stay away, but the playoff momentum factor makes me consider a play on them.

Jax @ Tenn -4  i am strongly considering a play on tenn.  suffice it to say, we agree with this:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101514015

plus, i think Jax is pretty banged up.  good spot to go against a team that is as good a candidate to start their offseason as any.  the tebow talk can't help either.

Philly @ NYG -7 - it will take a miracle for the giants to get into the playoffs.  they know it isn't happening.  they have to be pretty down after blowing not just the division but the playoffs when a few weeks ago it looked like they had both locked up.  no way would i play the giants here just because they have a slight chance to get in.  i wish they weren't playing the eagles.  and vick is starting.  what a mess.  this looks like a great spot to fade the giants but is there ever a good time to play philly?  and with vick at qb?  i like those points.  i'll look around and see if someone can come up with a good reason to take philly but until that happens, i'll stay away.

Dallas @ Wash -3- finally a game that really matters.  my only question is why this is 3- rather than 3.  this game looks pretty even to me.  dallas has been pretty good but when they've been bad, they usually still keep it close.  it makes that extra half a point more interesting.  but dallas's weakness (running the ball) is washington's strength.  that means you are counting on romo to stay with the washington offense in the biggest game of the season.   no thanks.  i won't be doing that.  and demarcus ware is hurt.  he isn't practicing and is wearing a brace on his shoulder but is expected to play.  so you have the road team with no running game, their star pass rusher banged up against a great running game and RG3 and you'll need a big game out of romo, albeit against a bad pass defense.  i suppose that's why it's 3- rather than 3. 

so can we take washington?  i doubt it.  this looks like one of those crazy NFC east games where you throw out all the garbage i just mentioned and either team could win or the last team with the ball wins.  not much in the way of pointed analysis there but i don't wan tto be giving 3- in a game like that.  i'll probably just watch it and see how RG3 and romo do. 

Chc -3 @ Det - the bears have a pretty good shot, a win here and GB beats minn and they are in, i believe.  but the line is only 3 when detroit has no incentive and has ended the season 0-7 so far.  that line has to scare you.  a lot of people will look at this and say, it's a big game for chicago, meaningless for detroit and at 3, chicago basically just has to win to protect my money.  it can't be that easy.  or maybe it is, but i can't say whether detroit mails it in or finds some motivation in trying to keep a rival out of the playoffs.  i hate these games where one team has motivation, the other seemingly doesn't and the line is a point or two too low.  i doubt i'll play it, don't even know where to start here.

GB -3- @ Minn - very inetresting line here.  obviously, the biggest game for minnesota in years while it's kind of a big game for GB but nowhere near what minn is facing.  yet GB is not only favored but by more than 3.  that reinforces what i already think which is GB beats up on minn here.  i think GB is just the much better team and they are going into the playoffs strong.  remember, last year, they lost @ KC in week 5, got a nice win win against chicago but mailed it in in week 17 and gave up 41 to detroit.  and then they got blown out in the first round as big favorites. 

the year before, they were 8-6 and got rodgers back the last two weeks and ended the season with wins against the giants and bears and went on to win the super bowl. 

maybe that doesn't mean much but GB does have a first round bye to play for and i do think they want to get last season out of their minds.  we love playing teams that can run the ball but we're just not sold on minn here.  might be best to stay away so we don't get burned by a 200 yard day by peterson but possible play on GB.

Car @ NO -5  setting this line at 5 is basically saying, who the darn knows?  and that's what i'm saying, who the darn knows?  maybe with nothing on the line, neither defense will play hard and it will get over 54 but vegas knows that will be a popular bet and there isn't much value there.  i have no clue here.

KC @ Denver -16    what?  16?  i'll say this, first.  what KC has done is one of the more amazing stories in recent history.  in week 6 they rushed for 214 yards and didn't get a TD, only scored 6 points.  very difficult to do.  and then last week, they rushed for 352 yards and only scored 13 points and lost.  that's almost impossible to do.  i bet that's some kind of record.  over 500 total yards, one TD, 13 points, loss.  you may never see that again.  that goes beyond bad coaching and a dysfunctional team.  i don't know what the hell it is.  but i know i can't bet on it.  i can't lay 16 points either on a team i don't like very much. 

i guess it really doesn't matter what denver does in this game but the hope is that denver has an inflated line or two in the playoffs.  we love manning but we think this team is overrated. 

AZ @ SF -16-  oh my, another one.  i guess it's the same situation.  vegas is saying KC and AZ are done for the season.  at least KC can run the ball, and do it well.  what can AZ do.  and SF is better than denver.  and SF might be a little angry after last week.  harbaugh seems like the type who might look for a blowout here to get his team on track, particularly with his young QB needing confidence.  i can actually see a play on SF here.  everything points to it, but we won't do it. 

Stl @ Sea -10-  here's one we might play. sea can move up in the seeding with a win and some help, but they won't get it from SF.  they could get it from GB.  so, seattle will be motivated.  but how motivated after coming off 4 straight wins including the huge one last week. 

this line is inflated.  it really should be closer to 9.  it's this high because Sea has scored a million points the last three weeks.  but that's not really what this team is about.  they aren't winning in the playoffs by outscoring the other team.  if they win, it'll be because of defense and running the ball.  maybe they keep going and score 50 here to but when i see an inflated line, i'll play the other side.  readers know Stl has been outr favorite team all season.  they cover a lot and when they don't, they at least are playing hard.

they have been well coached, they've played a very tough schedule and have a chance to end the season with a winning record after going 2-14 last season, which would be a huge achievement.  i think it's fair to say Stl will give a good effort here./  couple that with Sea coming off a huige, emotional win and a clearly inflated line and it looks like one last play on Stl. 


good luck


ClubDirtSports.com  "We'd forgive most things if we knew the facts."

RETWEET x Infinite

thank you inmates 


fella (don't want to group you with those miscreants).  what's philly going to do this week? 

CD

      It's easy to see why the trepidation in all your write ups this week CD,  as week 17 is historically the hardest week to find the gems that successful bettors need to find in order to stay successful. I think you're spot on  with the Houston game, and since there won't be weather factored in I hit that one early. Two games that scare you off that to me offer a good chance to make bank on,  are Chi. and Buff.  Yeah I know that Buff. is what they are, not what they were hyped up to be preseason, but the early season beat down by the Jets makes me really believe the motivation's there, and Jets just can't wait for the season to end. With the Bears needing a win to even consider moving on, I also like them from a motivation stand point, and the "Kitties" also can't wait for the final whistle. Calvin Johnson got the record last week, and you could tell that was all they even cared about in that game. Why would this game mean anything to them,other then potentially spoiling the Bears slim play off hopes. It may have meant something even as close back as last week, but seeing that the seasons over this Sunday for them, they'll just go through the motions.

    These final games are very similar to Bowl games, in that if you can back the team that is more excited about actually playing the game, you've found value.  Teams like Jax, Jets, Lions, and even Philly have to be hoping the game gets called by a bomb scare, 5 minutes in.  Face it, all the teams I just mentioned have grossly under achieved, and want a vacation in the worst way. Understandably their opponents are either in the same boat or have painted themselves into a desperate corner, and I actually like backing a desperate team, especially against teams that have every reason to pack it in.  We're always taking a gamble when evaluating a teams mental state, but some seem so obvious, I'm willing to do just that. Even the best motivational speaker in the world couldn't get the Jets, Lions, Jax. ,or even Philly, up for the last game in a very disappointing failure of a season.

    Hopefully ClubDirtsSports  will have some insight come play offs, as I look forward to your thoughts week in and out, throughout the regular season.  Here's to a prosperous New Years for you and your loved ones, and a profitable last few weeks with your NFL selections.

                     BOL  and keep the faith 

CDSports

Other than Tennessee, I can see myself playing another game or two. Most likely your favorite underrated underdogs the St. Louis Rams. They're simply a tough out and as long as they haven't made vacation plans yet, ought to give Seattle their best test in a month. The Seahawks have to be awfully proud of their recent ascent to the NFL's elite du jour, which is usually about time that bubble bursts. 

in the Gb discussion starwink copied, that should say GB lost to  KC in week 15, not 5.  the idea that one year they limp into the playoffs and lose in the first round as favorites and the other they end the season with two good wins and win the super bowl as dogs.  again, may not mean much but maybe GB now appreciates the difference between going into the playoffs on a high note rather than taking week 17 off.

i'm headed out for some drinks.  doesn't happen very much anymore.  be back later or tomorrow for further discussion.

CD 

Been on the Hawks for awhile...not getting off now...

Think Ravens play their subs,sadly think the Cats play theirs too...

On  NE,feel might not be their A game,but don't trust Phins in the cold at all...

Like the Vikes to hang at home,unless Ponder implodes think they do..

Dirt Dog ..great read all year long.....

On a day when MJD goes under the knife at Dr. Andrews'  clinic (why wait half the year to do the inevitable?) there is one last tidbit of a transaction that made me laugh so hard I got a stomach ache. On this day of 12/28/12, the Jaguars have claimed DT Jerome Long off the practice squad of the KC Chiefs. So in essence, with one week left in the regular season, the Jaguars have claimed someone from the practice squad off the only team in the NFL that is worse than you are. 

Is he Howie's son....

22, there's definitely some logic behind taking buffalo and the bears.  the jets are about as screwed up as any team can be and the bears are in a big game against a bad team that is also screwed upo and may quit.  that line scares me though.

if MJD is having surgery, i guess i was wrong that he isn't that hurt, but it is suspect that he is waiting until now to do it so maybe i was somewhat right that something isn't right with that situation. 

Good insights
CDsports