Posted:
#1
?? Need to stop the bleeding
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Who is the best capper to follow on covers
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Posts: 20
Posted:
#14
Then why arent you guys following me ???
I am a self proclaimed handicapping genius.
@countrybob, Here are some things you can do to improve your handicapping.
Start a handicapping journal. Make notes about how and why a team won or lost. Examine your losing bets and look for common factors. Then start avoiding those factors. Avoiding stoopid bets is a big help. It helps money wise and confidence level.
Find your handicapping style. Are you a fundamental handicapper ? Are you a technical handicapper (number cruncher etc ) ? You might find it more satisfying to handicap over unders.
One of the first places to start is write down who you think will win the game. The point spread is off at least 70 percent of the time.
If you do not think the underdog has a reasonable chance to win the game, then skip that bet.
With more practice, set a relatively short time limit to breakdown a game, say 10 minutes to an hour. Just like people at home can answer questions on a game show because they have less stress on their decisions.
Stick with flat betting until you get much better.
Do 1 to 2 percent of bankroll on each game.
For practice, goto NFL dot com and breakdown the Eagles Panthers boxscore. Post your observations about game performance in this thread.
And in case you are wondering, my posted picks over the past couple of seasons have had positive results. Also what I did was stop in weeks 14 or 15 when I was ahead.
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Posted:
#15
Good forum! Thanks for all the advise. My question is what about software? What are some elite or affordable software to purchase regarding tools for sports betting. Here is a more important question what the heck does Billy Walters use!!!!????....Cheers BOL
The Great Life of Sports Betting. Best Feeling in the World!
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Posted:
#16
Quote Originally Posted by wizebettor:
Looks like Maxdalury is the hottest free capper to tail now with 47-20-1 record. Pretty good considering average odd is +104.He doesn't post on google but someone is posting and tracking his picks here in the NFL section.It could be a hot streak but get it while its still hot.
Looks like Maxdalury is the hottest free capper to tail now with 47-20-1 record. Pretty good considering average odd is +104.He doesn't post on google but someone is posting and tracking his picks here in the NFL section.It could be a hot streak but get it while its still hot.
This guy has posted 68 games and people say follow him? Do you realize how insane that is? Look at 100 cappers, and you will find one or two that have killed it in the last 68 games. Does that mean to follow them? You are better off following a monkey at the zoo. You are basing a financial decision not only on total fluff, but that one capper who is hot is probably more likely to having a losing record over the next 68 games than a capper who is doing extremely poorly. If you wanna chase hot streaks, find the worst capper in the world and follow his next 20 picks religiously and I bet you do better than if you tailed the hot capper. What is up eventually comes down and what is down goes up. While the chance of a losing capper is still the same for the next game as the winning capper, if you select a capper for a bizarre win streak and expect that to continue, you are asking for lightning to strike twice. Forget it!
The ONLY factor anyone should really put any value in when assessing how good a capper is is how well that person did over 1000 games minimum, with picks made public in advance before kickoff, and properly tallied. If this capper who is at 70 or 75% success over 68 games is evaluated over 1000 games and still has even 60% success, then he is by far the best capper to walk the face of earth, and more insightful than Nostradamus himself! In other words ... it ain't happening! If he has 54% success over 1000 properly recorded games, follow him teverywhere he goes!
High sample sizes are the best friend of truth. Low sample sizes carry with them chance factors that make prediction impossible. There are exceptions. If a capper over 100 games went 95-5 .. that is not happening by chance alone! It is not happening period ... but if it did the capper woukd be a fricking genius ... and over 1000 games would probably get 67% ..
if someone goes 40-20....45-20...even 50-20...bet your bottom dollar that most of that is pure luck ... and follow the guy who is going 20-50 If you need to follow someone because that rare unusual losing streak will turn upward just as sure as that rare winning streak will implode!
Patience, huge sample sizes, not thinking it is easy, not thinking someone will have the answers more than you ... those are key to understanding this mad challenge of capping games!
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Posted:
#18
Quote Originally Posted by TJZags598:
Warren sharp...he's the guy that moves the lines...
Warren sharp...he's the guy that moves the lines...
Doesn't play every game, but he wins
Google sharp football analysis...
TRUST ME ON THIS BECAUSE I USE SHARP. THIS DUDE SUCKS behind!! way too many games (10+ counting cfb) and he lies about his records. biggest mistake i've made in my life purchasing this guys picks.
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