Gonna try the live game tonite!!!!!!

Still stinging from Black Friday Ive decided to go give the live game a shot tonite.

 

Ive been debating all week what my next move is since Black Friday since online poker is my primary source of income. I still have a few online alternatives (different sites, vpn, etc) but I really think I'll probably only be able to make about half of what i did before and thats not good enough so Im looking for other options.

 

The problem with live (in my opinion) is the rake obviously. Playing $1/$2 or $2/$5 with a $4 or $5 rake per pot is brutal, the reason basically noone can do it "for a living" playing this low.

 

However to play higher, like $5/$10, you need basically AT LEAST a $10,000 bankroll, more like $25,000 or more, and who the hell has that kind of money, thats almost as much as I made online all last year!!!!!

 

So really Ive had to think all week about what my goals and realitic expectations are.

 

Not to get too into my personal finances but i own a business that makes my mortgage payment for me that really only commands about 5 hours of my time/week and thats been the reason Ive been able to play online the last few years to pay all my other bills (utilities, child support, spending $, etc etc). The last few years Ive averaged about $500-$600/week online which considering my mortgage is paid has been pretty nice for me, allowing me to stay home and kinda enjoy life a little more than when I was a 9to5er.

 

Anyways , Im not really sure I can continue to average $500/week or more in the new poker environment.

 

So I'm hopin maybe I can still make about $300/week online and make another $200 or $300/week live. This I feel is a much more realistic goal than trying to have the same results online or trying to do it all live. Theres no way I can average $500/week or more playin $1/$2 or $2/$5 live imo.

 

The game Im gonna play is the $2/$5 No-Limit game at the local Indian Casino. This game is so friggen juicy, the buy-in is $100-$300.

 

Ive thought all week about how to approach this game on my short cash bankroll and I really only have $300 to take tonite which is just brutal. So instead of buying in for $300 at once Im gonna shortstack it, buying in $100 at a time.

 

Before anyone tells me Im underrolled or spreading myself too thin I KNOW THIS, but this is just the state I and many other online guys are at right now. I could play the $1/$2 for $100 buyins but this $2/$5 game is just ridiculously juicy as guys build $1500 stacks there regularly, its really just an absolute donkfest.

 

So the plan since Im really only gonna have 20 blinds is gonna be to , hopefully, find a hand in late postion after theres been a raise (standard raise is $20-$25) and a caller or two and then push all-in with a wide range of hands that play well against my opponents calling ranges.

 

So two things can happen, say a guy raises to $25 and gets 2 callers (somewhat favorable circumstances but we'll use this for a base example). When the pot gets to me theres gonna be $82 in it (if a raise and two callers) and I'm gonna shove it for $100.

 

So, if I get lucky and everyone folds to my $75 raise ($25 to $100) i will instantly pick up $82, almost doubling my stack without a fight!!!!! Honestly though I only see them folding maybe 25% of the time due to my short stack and the looseness of this game.

 

Then, if called (by only one player), I am risking my $100 to win about $150 (oponents stack + the call/folders minus rake) in a  $250 pot. Now most likely, unless Im lucky enough to get TT+ in the first few orbits, Im prolly gonna be behind when called, thats why Im choosing my shoving hands with the best possible equity against what my opponents may be calling with.

 

I need about 40% equity when called for this to be a profitable move, and actually even less due to the small pct of times Ill win the pot uncontested preflop.

 

Its amazing the # of hands that carry that type of equity preflop against opponents calling ranges. I'll show some pokerstovve results in my next post to show you what I mean

Here is the callinjg range I designated for my opponents calling my $100 peflop all-in. This is actually a VERY tight calling range in reality for this game, I will get called by worse but I like to make the opponent calling range tighter therefore Im always on the +EV side since looser calls just means more equity for me. In other words, if they call looser, its just that much more profitable of play

 

Anyways heres the range :

All pocket pairs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22

and these random hands : AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, AJs, AJo, ATs, ATo, and KQs

 

As you can see Im giving my opponents a lot of credit to be able to fold other hands but like i said I like err on the tight side.

 

So theres the calling range

Youve put a lot of thought into this.

On a average of my $100 for a $250 pot ($100 risk for $150 profit) I need 40% equity to break even, even less really when you accoiunt for the few preflops folds I'll get.

 

Here are the 25 hands I'll have 39% or better equity against my opponents calling range, in other words, here are the hands Im shovin preflop :

 

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT - all of these are pretty easy no brainers obv

 

99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44

 

AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, AJs, AJo, ATs, KQs, KJs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, T9s

 

Those are the hands that Im basically shoving preflop given the circumstances I explained (standard preflop raise plus at least 1 caller)

 

Now, considering the likely scenario one of those hands doesnt find me fast enough in the right spot here are 8 more hands with 37%-39% equity that i can open up my range a little bit and also shove if Im carddead

 

A9s, A8s, KQo, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T8s, 98s

 

thx, youve got to if you want a true edge in this game

$300 bankroll

You are taking a knife to a gunfight son.

 

Read my post GoldenGoose!!!!

 

Lol seriously though I know this pal

 

Last nights results and an interesting hand to discuss in a but after I get goin this morning

hey Party I send you a friend request

I love the short stack push's.

IPartyALOT sounds like the "short stack zero" loser that I had the unfortunate experience of talking with in a local bar.  He was full of one delusional lie after another.  And he was so "confident" in his abilities that he was offering "coaching" to any sucker who would listen (and pay a fee for his worthless info).

how are you going to manage the same "profits" as before? You clearly stated to me that success in one does not mean success in another? btw I like the avatar, i knew from the moment you started posting in my thread you were just seeking my approval, clearly coping my avatar and emulating me proves that point.

no he has forgotten more about poker than you or I will ever now, btw what kinda of loser plays online poker for a living make "25k a year" so that he can pay his child support, iparty you are a special breed of loser, how much do you collect in food stamps and wellfare?

LOL, the shit you guys say

 

Had I come on and said "the internet is rigged!!!!" you uys would applaud and pat me on the back

 

But since I come on with real hand analysis and ranges and stuff you guys rip me LOL

 

   This forum

feel your pain partyalot have way to much money in poker stars and tilt. for all you guys that think internet poker rigged its not.

Quite frankly, there are much better poker forums out there that have legitimate conversations and analysis, rather than the bickering and bull-shitting this site offers. But what can you expect, this is a sports betting site afterall.  Good luck man, and I enjoyed reading

 

 

 

Thing that cracks me up about this forum is the "rigged" talk. A bunch of weekend recreational players who all think theyre Ivey and that "If Im losing it has to be rigged"

 

Then you tell them what theyre doing wrong, show proof that youve been crushing online for years, and they just cover their ears and scream louder and call you a liar, even though all my results are verifiable.

 

Oh well, losing players gonna make excuses and not take any advice from proven winning players. Thats why poker will always be profitable, cuz of guys like sean and soblatant

 

Thx guys 

you keep talking about these verifable records, yet no one can verify them, is there anything you post that is a fact?

Not one thing. This ipartyALOT aka chancep aka eletricladylnd is so full of shit, I can smell him from here. The dude lives in a dream world, and will probably never wake up.
Best advice is to just ignore him. If you dont, he will get to be extremely annoying and drive you crazy.

 

Dude i sent you a PM and told you precisely how to verify it all and you couldnt figure it out, maybe have a more intelligent friend help you or something I dont know.

 

In the PM I also tried to explain to you why youre losing online and even offered to help in which you replied "you already know the game"  (even though you are losing online) and have proceeded to follow me into my other threads and troll them.

 

Sorry youve lost online, but dont blame the site and dont try and discredit me cuz Im not losing too. Re-read my PMs and figure out to use a very simple tracking site and maybe you'll open your mind a little bit and realize youre not as good of a player as you think you are and thats why youve lost online.

 

If you have anything more to say then PM me, taking this argument into every thread of mine is just pathetic and ridiculusly immature