Unscientific Poll

We were discussing this topic at our game last week --- do you believe (a) that cards are dealt on a completely random basis, or (ii) that cards (at times) are dealt in non-random patterns?

 

For example, say you are sitting at a table that is being dealt with two decks -- a red deck and a blue deck.  Over the past 90 minutes, the winning hand has twice been a set of 6s with the red deck.  With the red deck in play, you are holding top pair with two sixes on the board -- are you any more inclined to believe that somone is holding a 6 in their hand (to make a set) due to the fact that a set of 6s has shown twice before with the same deck?

 

I personally look for recurring card patterns, but have been told by others that cards are completely random.

 

 

 

Im guessing you are talking abotu live poker? If so, i'd say that it depends, how random it is. They say that shuffling 9 times, i think the number is, is the amount of times to get a completely random deck, however if the deck is only shuffled once or twice and maybe cut in a weird way, it may seem that cards have a tendency to keep popping up.

 

Even with this in mind, i still wouldnt let that influence my play. 

There is no way that with a live dealer (not the internet) that the cards are dealt on a completely random basis.  Every dealer has there own way of shuffling the cards and therefore the cards are dealt in patterns with that particular dealer. For instance, after dealing for a long period of time, the cards you are dealing will have a tendency to stay in some sort of pattern.  You will wash the same, strip the same, and rip the same.  Therefore in my opinion, at the least, there can be two cards side by side in the deck for a series of hands.  This would be considered not random.  Having said that, dealers get changed out often enough to where these patterns never come to form.  Once in a great while you notice patterns that you can take advantage of, but is it because of patterns in the deck?  Who knows. 

 

So in all, I have no idea how you would even start to  apply this to some sort of strategy while playing if you can at all.   But the fact is that the same person dealing the same deck of cards will have some sort of pattern to it being long term or short term.

 

One way to get a good example of this it is to shuffle a deck of cards face up and deal out some hands face up and continue to do this over a long period of time.  You will see some sort of pattern because of the way you shuffle, whether it be the the same few cards that are never in play or the Ace of diamonds has been in somebodys' hand for 7 straight hands.  I personally wouldn't even come close to having time to do this and I would imagine no one else does either.  But you get the point.

thaute, that is so ridiculous, i cant believe someone honestly could for a second believe that is true. Ok so lets just say that their really is a pattern that every person deals in, which i am skeptical of in itself, but then are you saying that as the button moves the sticking cards follow the plater as well. And also when people muck their cards, the dealer doesnt keep those in a nice littlestack in order of folding, they just put them into a pile and that also effects the order its in. Also, say cards ABCD are together, it goes A with C and B with D to the two players in heads up. The community comes out and that is E (burn 1) FGH I (burn 2), J K (burn 3) and L when the hand is over, are you saying they will be put back in that order or close to it so that when the cards are redealt player 1 may get card A over and over again. No that is ridiculous, delears put the cards in the middle, bottom, or top of a deck after the hand and then shuffle X amount of times and then CUT, thus there is no way that there is even any constant pattern.

spoondiggidy9, I'm not sure if I explained it how I wanted to, but I'll try again.  Your last sentence says it all.

If a dealer does this every time with the cards, there will be some sort of pattern (never said it was constant).

I agree with you in your A,B,C,D... scenario.  Those cards in play will be shuffled more than any cards in the deck because of differents factors, button moving, everybody folding, etc.  There will be some sort of pattern to the cards in the long term, again not a constant pattern that you can take advantage of as a player, with the cards that are not being used in play. 

 

Again, maybe i'm not coming across in the best way possible but you must not think it is that ridiculous if in your above statement you said that "that shuffling nine times, you think the number is, is the number of times to get a completely random deck".  So am I wrong in saying that if a deck is not completely random then there is some sort of pattern to it, beit small or not.

 

Don't get me wrong, i'm not saying that there is a constant pattern nor am I saying that it is completely random.  There is no way in hell that it is completely random.  Let me try to explain it like this, would you agree that if the 10h and the 9h were next to each in the deck for five straight hands that it would be considered not random. Hopefully, and this happens.  Most likely if they are not in play, but it happens.  this proves in my opinion that the cards are not dealt "on a completely random basis".

 

I'm a dealer for a "informal" poker game if you will, and I see all time as a dealer.  The pattern may last 5 hands or it may last all night because of my style of shuffling.  I will have a tendency to shuffle the same every time.  I see it alot better as a dealer than a player would because they are focused on far meaningful things in my opinoin.  It doesn't happen every night but if it was random, it would'nt happen any night.

 

Maybe I'm saying that it cannot be random due to the human element.  Anyways, hope that makes more sense.  Let me know what you think, these discussions interest the shit out of me and I respect your opinion from your prior posts as a poker player

sorry for the hostility ,

 

anyway, if you are saying there is no constant pattern, then what is the point of even mentioning it, no constant, no way to utilize it, no value. You can find patterns everywhere, but if they arent constant they are just meaningless patterns.

 

No, i would not agree that if two cards are next to each other for 5 straight hands then it is not random, the only way i would agree with that is if every single hand the two were next to each other, every single hand. Think of it like this, say you have 52 marbles in a bag, all different colors, you grab a black marble, mix around the bag, grab a black marble, mix around the bag, etc. Is that not a random event? The odds of it happening, extremely low, but it is random none the less.

 

Also. your tendencies really cannot be takin seriously unless you mark the cards and by this i mean, every single time you shuffle, the third card from the bottom of the left half goes on top of the 2nd card from the bottom of the right half. EVERY single time this must happen, because the shuffling must be the same for a pattern otherwise it is not a fair anaylsis because you are comparing different card placements. And also unless you count to yourself, ok thats the 5th shuffle, time to deal it, you could have a slight variance in number of times you shuffle, which again would make it an unfair basis of analysis. 

this isn't exactly what you are talking about but i think it is related:  say you're out of the hand and there is 8 8 A on the board, and a 8 comes on the turn or river.  The very next hand, you are dealt pocket 8's.  There are a few raises in front of you.  Do you A)play the hand hoping the trend of 8's will continue, B)fold because you think there is a small chance another 8 will come on the board after the last hand, C)play the hand with no bias.  Same for flush draws, a solid spade board the hand before, next hand you are dealt pocket spades.

unless the cards werent shuffled...id play the hand with no biased. Really i think you should be focusing on a lot more things when playing poker than if cards are going to have a greater tendency to pop up if there were a lot of them the hand before. This mentality works against the whole idea of playing the players and not the cards.