What are the percentages of this happening?

This isn't a bad beat story because I didn't lose but it certainly felt like a loss.  What are the odds?

Playing at a 2/5 NL table in the Carribean while I was on vacation.  We have a loud chatterbox who is quite the asshole to everyone at the table including the dealer and is raising almost every hand btw $15 and $20.  He is sitting to my right.  He's on the button, I'm the small blind and look down at 77. We had 4 callers and the button raises to $20.  I said screw it I'll call b/c I wanted to flop a set and bust this guy so bad even though I'm in very bad position.  I call, everyone else folds, we're heads up.  Flop comes Jc, 10c, 7d.  I'm first to act and check just b/c I know this guy will make is continuation bet like he's done all night.  He bets out $35.  I pause for a little and go all in for $225.  He hesitates for a while and mumbles, "I think you're on a flush draw or straight draw"...(he didn't even put me on a J or 10!!) and he calls with 72 off, his raising hand for his last $160!!  The turn is a 10 which gives me a boat and the river is a 10 also to give us both 10's over 7's.  Pot is chopped and I'm pissed.

sucks for you

On the Turn he had a 4.5 %  chance of a Tie ..Of course Zero percent chance to win

that is gross

That is pretty sick.  And he put you on a flush draw? 

 

When I've been bullying a table and someone finally check-raises me, I usually don't put them on a drawing hand. 

 

Yeah, you can use a semi-bluff to fight back if someone is running over the table, but half the time, the other dude is going to call ANYWAY....you have to know an opponent pretty well IMO if you are gonna semi-bluff a loose player like that (and you obviously did).  Flopped set is one of the best check-raising hand there is and he didn't even sniff around in that area. 

 

Sounds to me like he wanted to call so he figured out a way to justify it.  I know you should love idiots like that, but you don't love 'em when they steal your money.