I remember in the election 4 years ago, there was a distinguished well-respected poster here (I forget his name) who laid out the reasons why Clinton was certain to win and he placed large bets on her to win. He turned out to be completely wrong, but I am wondering if anyone has got any opinions or bets they have placed on this year's presidential election? Right now the odds for Biden and Trump are almost identical (the markets think they both have a 50/50 chance) but perhaps posters here could shed some light on who they think will win and why and if they have placed any bets.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I remember in the election 4 years ago, there was a distinguished well-respected poster here (I forget his name) who laid out the reasons why Clinton was certain to win and he placed large bets on her to win. He turned out to be completely wrong, but I am wondering if anyone has got any opinions or bets they have placed on this year's presidential election? Right now the odds for Biden and Trump are almost identical (the markets think they both have a 50/50 chance) but perhaps posters here could shed some light on who they think will win and why and if they have placed any bets.
I would wait until the conventions highs wear off. It's a coin flip right now but I think the lines will start changing more significantly when the candidates get more in the limelight.
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I would wait until the conventions highs wear off. It's a coin flip right now but I think the lines will start changing more significantly when the candidates get more in the limelight.
I hammered Trump at +150 to win president, and +225 to win New Hampshire. The state bet I'm not all that sure about but he's winning the election.
I actually think you have a better shot with New Hampshire than you do with Trump for the general election. I'll explain once again why I do believe the numbers are not particularly favorable for Trump. I know the people in NH and although the polling shows Biden doing well, I agree with Republican state officials. It's a state that leans slightly Republican. Hillary did manage to win the state in 2016, though. I expect a very close total in the state and I was surprised DraftKings didn't ask to pick the winner of it for that contest. I think it's a very difficult choice.
Trump maxed out most of the support he received back in 2016. Anyone who was interested or excited by the guy cast a ballot for him. They did not sit out in 2016 and decide to wait and see what happened. Anyone suggesting that to me is simply a moron and isn't capable of functioning well. So when Chris Wallace tried explaining on Fox News that Trump needed to expand his base and become more popular. Republicans derided him and said he just didn't have a clue. The problem is Republicans don't understand why Wallace is correct. His base is there but he needs to convince prior voters who went for Hillary or a 3rd party. Although his supporters think he's so reasonable, Trump is very partisan and his attacks on Democrats, along with insulting everyone on a regular basis, turns off a lot of moderates who just can't support a person like him. Republicans HATE moderates but lots of them exist throughout this country. They want normalcy and they want to see some compromise. He just hasn't done enough to convince this block of voters and that is likely to doom him.
There's more, though. Voter turnout is likely to increase. We'll go with 5% but I do think 10% or so is possible. This increase actually helps Democrats more. It's not an opinion. Republicans turn their constituents out at a higher percentage rate, so a very safe assumption is Democrats will slightly benefit from this in the aggregate. I also think you should consider that Biden will never be hated the same way Hillary was. That does matter because Hillary's inability to connect with voters was part of what killed her. Biden does say dumb shit like Trump does but voters don't see him like Hillary. In fact, I bet a small percentage of white racists may prefer Biden to Trump. Old white men still appeal to them and not all racists are Republicans, although I would argue their slice of the pie is fairly large.
I'm not a Biden fan and people on here have seen me say that but I'm telling you that Trump's stuck in a bad spot and can't change his act. Oh yeah, he's so moderate and circumspect. Ha! The guy is a loudmouth who can't shut the hell up for one day. Republicans love that but I wonder how many people are turned off by it? Voter turnout increasing should help Biden, no matter how much Republicans fight mailing ballots from home. They're just going to piss off the public too much. You're going to be astounded, in my opinion. Trump is popular by 2016 standards so if you can find a good price on Biden, I recommend doing it before it's too late.
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Quote Originally Posted by Eddy_Winslow:
I hammered Trump at +150 to win president, and +225 to win New Hampshire. The state bet I'm not all that sure about but he's winning the election.
I actually think you have a better shot with New Hampshire than you do with Trump for the general election. I'll explain once again why I do believe the numbers are not particularly favorable for Trump. I know the people in NH and although the polling shows Biden doing well, I agree with Republican state officials. It's a state that leans slightly Republican. Hillary did manage to win the state in 2016, though. I expect a very close total in the state and I was surprised DraftKings didn't ask to pick the winner of it for that contest. I think it's a very difficult choice.
Trump maxed out most of the support he received back in 2016. Anyone who was interested or excited by the guy cast a ballot for him. They did not sit out in 2016 and decide to wait and see what happened. Anyone suggesting that to me is simply a moron and isn't capable of functioning well. So when Chris Wallace tried explaining on Fox News that Trump needed to expand his base and become more popular. Republicans derided him and said he just didn't have a clue. The problem is Republicans don't understand why Wallace is correct. His base is there but he needs to convince prior voters who went for Hillary or a 3rd party. Although his supporters think he's so reasonable, Trump is very partisan and his attacks on Democrats, along with insulting everyone on a regular basis, turns off a lot of moderates who just can't support a person like him. Republicans HATE moderates but lots of them exist throughout this country. They want normalcy and they want to see some compromise. He just hasn't done enough to convince this block of voters and that is likely to doom him.
There's more, though. Voter turnout is likely to increase. We'll go with 5% but I do think 10% or so is possible. This increase actually helps Democrats more. It's not an opinion. Republicans turn their constituents out at a higher percentage rate, so a very safe assumption is Democrats will slightly benefit from this in the aggregate. I also think you should consider that Biden will never be hated the same way Hillary was. That does matter because Hillary's inability to connect with voters was part of what killed her. Biden does say dumb shit like Trump does but voters don't see him like Hillary. In fact, I bet a small percentage of white racists may prefer Biden to Trump. Old white men still appeal to them and not all racists are Republicans, although I would argue their slice of the pie is fairly large.
I'm not a Biden fan and people on here have seen me say that but I'm telling you that Trump's stuck in a bad spot and can't change his act. Oh yeah, he's so moderate and circumspect. Ha! The guy is a loudmouth who can't shut the hell up for one day. Republicans love that but I wonder how many people are turned off by it? Voter turnout increasing should help Biden, no matter how much Republicans fight mailing ballots from home. They're just going to piss off the public too much. You're going to be astounded, in my opinion. Trump is popular by 2016 standards so if you can find a good price on Biden, I recommend doing it before it's too late.
As I’ve noted this will be a Covid election which means unless there’s some good news down the road trump likely loses. Having said that, Biden is doing everything to lose it. In my lifetime, barring extraordinary circumstances (which Covid would be) law and order wins every time. If I were Trump I would play 1 commercial over and over, which is the port guy being killed because he was wearing a hat and BLM then celebrating it. Poor Joe, although condemning the right wing crazies, couldn’t mention Antifa or BLM by name. And btw the ind u r referring to from 2016 was Scal
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As I’ve noted this will be a Covid election which means unless there’s some good news down the road trump likely loses. Having said that, Biden is doing everything to lose it. In my lifetime, barring extraordinary circumstances (which Covid would be) law and order wins every time. If I were Trump I would play 1 commercial over and over, which is the port guy being killed because he was wearing a hat and BLM then celebrating it. Poor Joe, although condemning the right wing crazies, couldn’t mention Antifa or BLM by name. And btw the ind u r referring to from 2016 was Scal
I remember in the election 4 years ago, there was a distinguished well-respected poster here (I forget his name) who laid out the reasons why Clinton was certain to win and he placed large bets on her to win. He turned out to be completely wrong, but I am wondering if anyone has got any opinions or bets they have placed on this year's presidential election? Right now the odds for Biden and Trump are almost identical (the markets think they both have a 50/50 chance) but perhaps posters here could shed some light on who they think will win and why and if they have placed any bets.
I think you are referring to Scal...I don't know about being well respected ,,at least not in then politics forum. Nevertheless,I believe he made a bet on something ..that if his was wrong he would leave Covers ..and he was wrong...again..so he left.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bwahahaha:
I remember in the election 4 years ago, there was a distinguished well-respected poster here (I forget his name) who laid out the reasons why Clinton was certain to win and he placed large bets on her to win. He turned out to be completely wrong, but I am wondering if anyone has got any opinions or bets they have placed on this year's presidential election? Right now the odds for Biden and Trump are almost identical (the markets think they both have a 50/50 chance) but perhaps posters here could shed some light on who they think will win and why and if they have placed any bets.
I think you are referring to Scal...I don't know about being well respected ,,at least not in then politics forum. Nevertheless,I believe he made a bet on something ..that if his was wrong he would leave Covers ..and he was wrong...again..so he left.
Thanks for all the analysis, lots of great points from everyone, including one very long detailed post from sicknesscity! Biden is polling a lot stronger than Clinton was in 2016, yet the odds are saying he only has a 50% chance of winning. How come this is the case?
The largest part of the reason is quite simple and well-known to those of us who have followed politics **OBJECTIVELY** for decades - the anticipated "October Surprise" Typically a surprise announcement that significantly impacts the current voter perceptions, as revealed in campaign polling.
We witnessed this in 2016 by James Comey, Wiki-Leaks and of course the online social-network support from the Russians - who stated they wanted trump to win - and were identified by our security agencies AND the REPUBLICAN-led Senate, as interfering on behalf of trump.
In polling, the question asked is "If the election were held TODAY..." That's the key: if it were held *TODAY*, +/- the MOE of course. Currently Biden has a significant lead over trump, and outside the MOE. But two months from now all that *could* change. WHY ?? Because of the usual and expected "October Surprise" trump loses without a flip in perception of his opponent. He very clearly has control over AG Bill Barr - and Barr knows his own job is on the line if trump loses!! .....So I expect some bogus "announcement" of an "alleged" serious investigation into Biden, Harris or some similar egregious announcement that will reshape current public perceptions. It's desperation time for the candidate who is behind in Septemer/October. Since the trump regime is lawless they have nothing to lose by cheating to win at all costs. IF they win by cheating NOTHING WILL TOUCH THEM because Bill Barr will still be trump's puppet.
This is why I am on record predicting Biden wins the popular vote and by a significant margin and wins the electoral college also by a significant margin - IF NO CHEATING/"October Surprise" But since neither I nor anybody KNOW the impact of any "October Surprise" I cannot be confident that trump's cheating won't help him steal the election.
THAT is the all-important caveat.
How much of an impact will trump's cheating have.
Which is WHY voters in polls are solidly in favor of Biden *TODAY* but when asked who they think will ultimately win - wwell that is entirely a different question....They KNOW trump will cheat.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bwahahaha:
Thanks for all the analysis, lots of great points from everyone, including one very long detailed post from sicknesscity! Biden is polling a lot stronger than Clinton was in 2016, yet the odds are saying he only has a 50% chance of winning. How come this is the case?
The largest part of the reason is quite simple and well-known to those of us who have followed politics **OBJECTIVELY** for decades - the anticipated "October Surprise" Typically a surprise announcement that significantly impacts the current voter perceptions, as revealed in campaign polling.
We witnessed this in 2016 by James Comey, Wiki-Leaks and of course the online social-network support from the Russians - who stated they wanted trump to win - and were identified by our security agencies AND the REPUBLICAN-led Senate, as interfering on behalf of trump.
In polling, the question asked is "If the election were held TODAY..." That's the key: if it were held *TODAY*, +/- the MOE of course. Currently Biden has a significant lead over trump, and outside the MOE. But two months from now all that *could* change. WHY ?? Because of the usual and expected "October Surprise" trump loses without a flip in perception of his opponent. He very clearly has control over AG Bill Barr - and Barr knows his own job is on the line if trump loses!! .....So I expect some bogus "announcement" of an "alleged" serious investigation into Biden, Harris or some similar egregious announcement that will reshape current public perceptions. It's desperation time for the candidate who is behind in Septemer/October. Since the trump regime is lawless they have nothing to lose by cheating to win at all costs. IF they win by cheating NOTHING WILL TOUCH THEM because Bill Barr will still be trump's puppet.
This is why I am on record predicting Biden wins the popular vote and by a significant margin and wins the electoral college also by a significant margin - IF NO CHEATING/"October Surprise" But since neither I nor anybody KNOW the impact of any "October Surprise" I cannot be confident that trump's cheating won't help him steal the election.
THAT is the all-important caveat.
How much of an impact will trump's cheating have.
Which is WHY voters in polls are solidly in favor of Biden *TODAY* but when asked who they think will ultimately win - wwell that is entirely a different question....They KNOW trump will cheat.
Whats moving the needle away from biden is his neglect of the violence his support of defunding the police, his alliance with blm.... both parties are useless... people are going to look and see then decide. People don't feel safe with Joe .
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Whats moving the needle away from biden is his neglect of the violence his support of defunding the police, his alliance with blm.... both parties are useless... people are going to look and see then decide. People don't feel safe with Joe .
What’s he doing to lose it u mean like going from 2 to 1 favorite to nearly even money. And every1 knows it’s the law and order issue. Show some spine and stand up to Antifa
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What’s he doing to lose it u mean like going from 2 to 1 favorite to nearly even money. And every1 knows it’s the law and order issue. Show some spine and stand up to Antifa
Whats moving the needle away from biden is his neglect of the violence his support of defunding the police, his alliance with blm.... both parties are useless... people are going to look and see then decide. People don't feel safe with Joe .
Well right now Joe is not the one in charge, nor the one responsible for the complete safety of all US citizens. Not until January 21 anyway....
As for BLM, it can be argued both ways....could hurt him, but otoh, his embrace of the one issue that is uniting Blacks could help even more.....though he already has about 85% of the Black vote in favor of him...
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Quote Originally Posted by scooby-doos:
Whats moving the needle away from biden is his neglect of the violence his support of defunding the police, his alliance with blm.... both parties are useless... people are going to look and see then decide. People don't feel safe with Joe .
Well right now Joe is not the one in charge, nor the one responsible for the complete safety of all US citizens. Not until January 21 anyway....
As for BLM, it can be argued both ways....could hurt him, but otoh, his embrace of the one issue that is uniting Blacks could help even more.....though he already has about 85% of the Black vote in favor of him...
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