Don Juan Superbowl Pick???

I posted this over on NFL forum...

Hi All,

I’m so blessed to have been able to watch football for 55 years.  I’ve seen every Superbowl since Green Bay beat Kansas City in super bowl number One .

Since coming here to Covers/Wagerline in 2001 my Super bowl record against the spread is  11 wins 2 losses ...believe it or not,

Last year I was on Seattle, mainly because I thought their defense was so much better than Denver’s, and I thought Percy Harvin would be a nightmare match-up.

I won’t post a lot of stats, numbers, and overthink this game.  What works for me is keeping it simple and taking an overview, using history as a guideline, and recent play.

These teams match-up so well together with great coaches, great quarterbacks, great defenses and very good special teams. In fact the last 3 times they each other played the final score total fell between 45 and 50

And the last time they played, week 6 in 2012,  Seattle beat New England by one point 24-23 on a rainy day in Seattle.  With New England leading 20-10 mid way 4th quarter Wilson rallied the team and scored twice, once on a 4th down play.   This time New England’s defense is much improved with the addition of Revis and Browner in the secondary,  so now they can have an extra man in the box to help stop Lynch.

You must admit that Seattle was so lucky to win against Green Bay on a 4th down play. And lucky again on a lob for a two point conversion, not to mention the fortunate bounce on the on-side kick.

I look for New England to win this time on a neutral field.  Belichick and Brady will figure a way to win .  And, no lucky Tyre catches on top a helmet this time around.

So for the record, my Official pick for Super bowl 49  is ....NEW ENGLAND. –1

For those who like teasers, this is one of the best times to play a  13 point, 4 way teaser... NE +12 ..Sea + 14.. Over 34.5.. Under 60.5

GL,

Don Juan 

I’m sure there will be the usual New England/Brady haters attacking me for this post,  just like Denver posters attacked me last year for taking underdog Seattle .

Dannyboy,  Yes I played that teaser too.  I figured it would be such a close game and in close games anything can happen in the final minutes. And too, because the Coaches were so wise.

Also, I figured the Pats would pull it out in the end because more wisdom at quarterback. I learned a great lesson when I took San Francisco a few years ago in one of my only 2 losses out of 14 when inexperienced QB Kaepernick was at the goal line in the final seconds and lost.

Quote Originally Posted by lordspoint:


Well done sir!

Hi Lordy, Thanks,

Where have you been lately ?

Thank duan Juan another great selection this year.