I am a speculator, and I'm attempting to speuculate that Hillary Clinton will still be the President before the end of the current calendar year 2017. I'm attempting to procure 50-1 Odds Implying of a 2% probability. If somone would want to privately wager it or place me in contact with a private organization that would allow me to bet it.
In order for the me to win Hillary Rodham-Clinton would have to be holding the title of President of the United States before the end of the current year 2017
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I am a speculator, and I'm attempting to speuculate that Hillary Clinton will still be the President before the end of the current calendar year 2017. I'm attempting to procure 50-1 Odds Implying of a 2% probability. If somone would want to privately wager it or place me in contact with a private organization that would allow me to bet it.
In order for the me to win Hillary Rodham-Clinton would have to be holding the title of President of the United States before the end of the current year 2017
i got your message but it won't let me respond. i have no idea where you'd make a bet like this but i think it's a terrible bet.
1. if trump was no longer president for whatever reason, pence takes over.
2. if you are thinking that the election was not legitimate and they are going to have a re-vote, there is no precedent for that kind of thing even if someone (not sure who this would be) could prove fraud. 50-1 wouldn't be close to fair odds for something so unlikely.
unless i'm missing something and you have some other idea as to how clinton gets in.
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i got your message but it won't let me respond. i have no idea where you'd make a bet like this but i think it's a terrible bet.
1. if trump was no longer president for whatever reason, pence takes over.
2. if you are thinking that the election was not legitimate and they are going to have a re-vote, there is no precedent for that kind of thing even if someone (not sure who this would be) could prove fraud. 50-1 wouldn't be close to fair odds for something so unlikely.
unless i'm missing something and you have some other idea as to how clinton gets in.
I have a thinking rooted in logic as to how this could perhaps come about.. and I believe 50-1 to be sufficient. I would accept 50-1 odds,
If a reputable private party would give me those odds.
For the last 3 weeks I've been looking for a place to wager this - I've contacted countless online bookmakers and even wall street trading houses asking them - if they would write a binary option exotic derivative that I would buy it at an implied pricing probability of a 2%
chance between now and December 31st 2017. But no success
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I have a thinking rooted in logic as to how this could perhaps come about.. and I believe 50-1 to be sufficient. I would accept 50-1 odds,
If a reputable private party would give me those odds.
For the last 3 weeks I've been looking for a place to wager this - I've contacted countless online bookmakers and even wall street trading houses asking them - if they would write a binary option exotic derivative that I would buy it at an implied pricing probability of a 2%
chance between now and December 31st 2017. But no success
I have a thinking rooted in logic as to how this could perhaps come about.. and I believe 50-1 to be sufficient. I would accept 50-1 odds,
If a reputable private party would give me those odds.
For the last 3 weeks I've been looking for a place to wager this - I've contacted countless online bookmakers and even wall street trading houses asking them - if they would write a binary option exotic derivative that I would buy it at an implied pricing probability of a 2%
chance between now and December 31st 2017. But no success
ok, then.
good luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by JAja04:
I have a thinking rooted in logic as to how this could perhaps come about.. and I believe 50-1 to be sufficient. I would accept 50-1 odds,
If a reputable private party would give me those odds.
For the last 3 weeks I've been looking for a place to wager this - I've contacted countless online bookmakers and even wall street trading houses asking them - if they would write a binary option exotic derivative that I would buy it at an implied pricing probability of a 2%
chance between now and December 31st 2017. But no success
I get how a private party wouldn't want to escrow the money for only a 2% return. But if they were a reputable enterprise it wouldn't be necessary to put it up. But there are barriers are everywhere I turn on this.
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I get how a private party wouldn't want to escrow the money for only a 2% return. But if they were a reputable enterprise it wouldn't be necessary to put it up. But there are barriers are everywhere I turn on this.
cause in vegas anyone can take action. I do not know who but all
sports books can and do take actions like this it costs money.
It's illegal for books to host wagers on politics... maybe this would be different since it is outside of the actual election cycle but I still highly doubt any book would touch it-- to do so would be a legal liability on their part, which they have no interest in whatsoever.
PredictIt would probably be your best bet or there are sites where you can post custom bets with custom terms that other users can take you up on... I've never used them but I do know they exist.
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Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:
cause in vegas anyone can take action. I do not know who but all
sports books can and do take actions like this it costs money.
It's illegal for books to host wagers on politics... maybe this would be different since it is outside of the actual election cycle but I still highly doubt any book would touch it-- to do so would be a legal liability on their part, which they have no interest in whatsoever.
PredictIt would probably be your best bet or there are sites where you can post custom bets with custom terms that other users can take you up on... I've never used them but I do know they exist.
Thank You Desertspade for weighing in on this. I'm familiar with Predict-it! and i'm consdering their Market of Will Donald Trump be President on January 1st 2018? That currently i would stand to make a 400% profit in if here weren't to hold office on the first day of next year. I also was cognizant that Politics and Vegas aren't kosher.. I know you cannot wager a political outcome in Vegas, the lines they put out are for entertainment only. So I think this would still be a problem i would encounter potentially. I appreciate your constructive thoughts.
Thanks!
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Thank You Desertspade for weighing in on this. I'm familiar with Predict-it! and i'm consdering their Market of Will Donald Trump be President on January 1st 2018? That currently i would stand to make a 400% profit in if here weren't to hold office on the first day of next year. I also was cognizant that Politics and Vegas aren't kosher.. I know you cannot wager a political outcome in Vegas, the lines they put out are for entertainment only. So I think this would still be a problem i would encounter potentially. I appreciate your constructive thoughts.
Hillary's health both mentally and physically is a huge ? The true odds of her becoming president by 2017 are 64 million to 1. The odds of her passing are less than the odds of her becoming president within that time frame.
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Hillary's health both mentally and physically is a huge ? The true odds of her becoming president by 2017 are 64 million to 1. The odds of her passing are less than the odds of her becoming president within that time frame.
it is why no one I know can touch this. we deal with very short term bets mostly, futures are very small and frankly after Donald won very hard to find.
to broker this a true middle men , bookie tries to find someone or a bunch of people to move the large amount to face the small amounts.
by placing all in escrow the bookie can materialize a small amount due to the money market available or for long term a cd. or some other near zero risk.
then the bet proceeds to the eventual result. but the ones putting up 5g against 100 have that tied to the wager unless they are able to sell their stake in the wager to someone else.
the problem is the amount and the term near a full year to capitalize less than 2% by stating you are wagering 100 reality you are risking 110 if you lose. hence the rest are risking 5500 if you win to keep a book satisfied they are not just wasting their time.
Their is a risk as the courts start to unfold whether the election was indeed fair, With Trump garnering so much heat it is possible however unlikely that the election results could overturned in Philadelphia. Trumps own aids could be discredited for being registered in New York and Pennsylvania.
so when I asked of this never seen a colder no in response....
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it is why no one I know can touch this. we deal with very short term bets mostly, futures are very small and frankly after Donald won very hard to find.
to broker this a true middle men , bookie tries to find someone or a bunch of people to move the large amount to face the small amounts.
by placing all in escrow the bookie can materialize a small amount due to the money market available or for long term a cd. or some other near zero risk.
then the bet proceeds to the eventual result. but the ones putting up 5g against 100 have that tied to the wager unless they are able to sell their stake in the wager to someone else.
the problem is the amount and the term near a full year to capitalize less than 2% by stating you are wagering 100 reality you are risking 110 if you lose. hence the rest are risking 5500 if you win to keep a book satisfied they are not just wasting their time.
Their is a risk as the courts start to unfold whether the election was indeed fair, With Trump garnering so much heat it is possible however unlikely that the election results could overturned in Philadelphia. Trumps own aids could be discredited for being registered in New York and Pennsylvania.
so when I asked of this never seen a colder no in response....
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