Making Real Money Betting on Politics

So I posted about a month ago about getting banned from William Hill after making a sweet amount betting on politics there in 2019 and 2020. Since then, I got a friend I absolutely trust with my life to start an account in his name so I can keep betting politics there. But what's become really obvious is that the place to bet on politics without limits or threat of expulsion from the site is Bet Fair. They easily have the best odds/ highest limits (on the exchange side of the site there's really no limits). Here's the problem: I live in Canada and while I don't think setting up a bank account in one of their approved countries would be that much of a burden (they service a bunch of Caribbean countries and I could probably set up an account there through my own existing bank) the whole address verification thing is a real bitch. I don't really feel like fucking renting a place in some other country, paying a utility bill and all that but I'd do it if it didn't actually mean traveling way the fuck out of my way. Do you all think a bank would let me start an account with a PO box? Or can you actually pay to register a street address?

Any ideas you all have would be real damn appreciated. The value on Bet Fair for politics markets is crazy good and I don't want to miss out on it. I can see easy profit in the hundreds of thousands here and I'm happy to send any tips your way as well for what I like.

I mostly agree......

it was funny how apparently there was all this "blind" Trump money (i.e. they'd bet on him independent of the odds - within reason), but the odds stayed in Biden's favour....... did bookies and/or betting exchanges have big $$$$ bettors on biden? probably makes sense. RLM

not sure how simple the betting is though.... biden was to most informed observers a shoo-in. and that didn't happen. D's were favoured in tons of senate races they lost.

one market that was simple to make money was D presidential candidate. way too reactive to stupid things, like EW having 12k person rally in Seattle (does that really matter that much?) or KH having a great soundbite on "bussing".... I think the D candidate race had 6 clear-cut favourites.

@jimrockford22

 Yeah a lot of interesting points here. From the great work of the pollster David Shor we now know that there was a massive partisan non-response on the part of Republicans. This is different from the more commonly cited 'shy Trump' factor in which voters either lied to pollsters or to themselves (and to pollsters by saying Biden). Not the main driver, actually Shor argues. Basically a whole bunch of Republicans, he says, were just like 'Fuck these pollsters; they're agenda driven and out to get us" and didn't answer the phone. In contrast, a great many liberals were super eager to answer the vote and tell pollsters how anti-Trump they were. Covid make this worse because so many of these liberals were bored at home. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor. This led to big over-sampling of Democrats and it is something to watch out for going forward.

Now as you note, the presidential betting is not the only market. I made the vast majority of my winnings betting the Democratic primary market. I bet against Kamala winning the nomination directly (something like -250 on Pinnacle at the time) and indirectly by backing Biden at +500 and other attractive prices throughout the primary. I of course wish I had put down more now but yeah. 

BF has very attractive prices on 2024 primary markets. I might just move to the UK for a month ha.

what 2024 prices do you like?.... such a crapshoot IMHO.......

biden/Harris presumably have D nomination locked up....

on R side, who knows if it's reasonable to think DJT will be there in 2024?..... I would say "no". although I understand being a convicted felon doesn't preclude you from holding office. then it's pence/haley...... cotton/hawley/cruz...... hard to see how there would be that much insight.

the big problematic thing about polling that you allude to is how few people respond.. it's really small...... so even if you have elderly, uneducated hispanic male respond, is he representative of that demographic? or does he have more $$$$? family support etc?

I agree it's related but different to "shy trump voter"

can't believe 70 million people can't see thru this pathetic con-man

Dennis, one interesting thing I noticed is that DJT did relatively well in CNN polls, and biden did relatively well in Fox News polls.

I wonder if those org's are like waving a "red flag" at pollees... i.e. trump supporters more likely to respond to a CNN poll to show them they are wrong.

what is Rachel Bitecofer saying these days?.......... election didn't unfold the way she thought it would. her argument never was that coherent to me.. don't get me wrong, election didn't unfold the way I thought it would too. but it's my job.

also, if you bend rules to get access to betting sites, you have to be careful that they don't adjudicate your bets in an unfair manner once they catch on..

someone I know from the forums was doing big "correlated parlays".. when they found out, they cancelled his winning bets without regard to the fact it was an arb strategy (i.e. should have cancelled all his bets...... and of course, in this day and age, shouldn't have correlated parlays)

didn't notice him in the odds... but what about Marco Rubio for 2024 republican candidate?

he's pretty clueless, but that hasn't stopped the Rs before. ........ big important state. big important demographic (hispanic/latino.. I know they aren't the same but there's gotta be a lot of kinship)

what do you think about pence ratifying the election result (as per 2024)?

I saw it as a big negative with the trump cult...... but I do think they realize trump losing is inevitable and ultimately at some level correct.... and I think pence would pick up a lot of fans. 

I guess the negative argument is it'll kill him with trump cult but moderates won't accept him due to abortion/etc.

@jimrockford22

 I'll answer 'em all here.

You're exactly right. One of them has it near locked up. And yet you can find prices whereby you're going to profit nicely regardless of which of the two make it (2 to 1 at most books which is nuts). The problem is the maximum is so low the most you can make is like 100 bucks.

On the Republican primary, I'd wait to find out whether Trump runs. If he does the nomination is near certain to be his. If he doesn't it's a crapshoot. Pence's chances will depend hugely on whether Trump backs him. If he's pissed at him for reading out the votes (a funny as fuck thing to be pissed about but it's Trump) then he can destroy him. Pence has no real ideological connection to Trumpism or real personal connection to Trump. He's a super stiff evangelical. 

You're right but the funny thing is I basically told BF I would use a VPN to bet from Canada and they were like 'Yeah that's cool.' Thing is they want to be in the Canadian market so it's like they mind.