Posted:
#1
I don't care about anybodies political opinion. Opinions are like buttholes, everybody has one, they only cloud rational thinking about making value bets.
I enjoy sports gambling, but I know that it is really difficult to grow a bankroll because the lines are very very tight. This is not the case in political bets because the lines are not set by math geniuses in Las Vegas but by the marketplace.
We have a fascinating election in this country and thanks to on line books many have an opportunity to bet on the election. Here are my thoughts, you are welcome to disagree with me. I have profited in the past making large wagers on favorites close to the election when I perceive value. I have been studying the polls for both the presidential election and the congress and this year has been very out of the ordinary to say the least. Here are some of the oddities in this election cycle.
1) The October surprise.
Never has there been such a large movement in the polls this close to an election. Multiple factors are involved, wikileaks, the debates, but one single event stands out above the rest. The now infamous "grab them by the kitty tape." Say what you want about Trump but the man has a real talent to make a large section of the country not just vote for him but to appoint him their voice, their leader. Before the box tape and right about the time of the first debate Hillary's lead had dwindled down to be within the margin of error. She had a slim lead of approximately 2% and the momentum was in Trump's favor. Now just three weeks later the presidential race is all but over.
2) Huge gender gap between presidential candidates.
Trump leads Hillary among men by 11%, Hillary leads Trump among women by 33%.
3) Polls can't predict who will disgustedly not vote at all.
4) Polls are individually variable, the best predictor is the average of a large number of them. Which means since their aren't many of them they have to be averaged going back weeks in time.
Which means if there has been recent change the polls don't pick it up accurately because they average in out of date polls.
It is presently October 22nd, the election is a little more than two weeks away. As of now the odds at 5dimes has the following selections.
Hillary wins election-620
Democratic nominee wins over 369.5 electoral votes +235.
Republicans no longer senate majority -215.
My recommendations.
Hillary will win, over 90% chance. Value in Hillary -620 bet. You almost can't lose and you are making 15% on your money.
No play on Hillary winning 369.5 electoral votes AT THIS TIME. If the polls get closer in the states of Georgia or Texas I will slam this bet. They very well might.
Republicans will likely have less than 51 senate seats. Not much value in a -215 bet, the odds seem about right to me.
Two weeks to go, odds will change, value will change. Which means my opinions will change.
I don't give rats patooty what your opinion is of either Trump or Hillary is , talk betting value only please.
0
and get those greedy books
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