Senate Race Forecast

Guys –

This is the moment we have been waiting for. Follow or fade the decision is yours. I’m a liberal but I’m not about to put my money on bad bets. Updated odds from 5Dimes.

AK – Begich +300, Sullivan -420
AR – Pryor +550, Cotton -1,050
CO – Udall +300, Gardner -420
GA – Nunn +240, Perdue -320
IA – Braley +300, Ernst -420
KS – Orman -155, Roberts +115
KY – ALG +500, McConnell -900
LA – Landrieu +314, Cassidy -450
NC – Hagan -215, Tillis +165
NH – Shaheen -290, Brown +210
SD – Weiland +2,200, Rounds -6,600

Analysis – The GOP is going to take the Senate but likely will need to wait a few months for it. They need 6 seats for the majority. They will have easy wins in WV, SD and MT. I also see 5-8% wins in AK & AR and a very narrow win in Iowa. That said I think that Orman the independent will narrowly win in Kansas putting them back at 5. That leaves LA & GA which I think go to runoffs to decide the Senate. LA flips and GA stays red ultimately to give the GOP a 51-49 edge. LA & GA require the winner to receive a majority of the votes.

Your best bet is Mark Udall +300. The polls have looked really bad for him no doubt but Colorado has consistently under sampled Democrats. Look at my other thread for numbers but right now Udall trails in the Real Clear by 2.5% in the aggregate. Every major election lately Dems have outpolled by around 4%. Will be close but at 3:1 odds I’d take those. Given the odds I think Pat Roberts is a good value too. I think he narrowly loses but Kansas is a very heavily GOP state and he has a massive spending and ground operation advantage that Orman as an Independent does not have. What dooms him is the unpopularity of the Kansas GOP party right now and particularly their Governor Sam Brownback.

If you want to go with favorites your best value is with Hagan, Shaheen and Perdue. With Perdue you will likely have to wait until the runoff in January but he will win. I think Nunn wins around 48% with Perdue at 47% and third parties at 5% of the vote tomorrow but it won’t be enough to win a runoff. I do like Sullivan and Cotton to win so parlay them together for a better return.

So what is 5Dimes actually saying???

The November 4th election results are void for GA?

And the +240 for Nunn applies to the runoff only?

I don't think you have to wait for the runoff to have your wager graded.
Whoever gets the majority of votes tomorrow is the winner, I think.

I don't see any real value in the dogs here except maybe KS if voters at the very end decide they don't want a D in I's clothing. 

Was Virginia even on the map of "Up for Grabs"?