The betting markets were once again much more accurate than polls.....

There seems to be one constant in life....  If you want to predict the future, don't listen to opinions or pundits, follow the money.

I am a person who puts a lot of emphasis on science, math, numbers, and probabilities.  So for this election, the polls are really one of the major scientific ways to make probabilities.  Kind of like stats in sports.  But this year - once again - they were highly unreliable and misleading.

I fell for it again.  I couldn't understand how a conglomerate of polls had the election at about -900 Biden, but the betting odds were -200.  I wrote it off to fandom of the candidates, and the unusual nature of the event.  I was wrong.  The polls just suck.  For whatever reason they were (again) not an accurate predictor by any measure of what happened.

Once again - as almost always - when money is involved - opinions become more accurate.  The -200 was much closer to reality than the -900.

When in doubt, turn the noise off in your head and follow the money.

'What you need to understand is, that live votes is being mobilised by that silence majority in counter to the poll if that make sense. Earlier democratic voters by Mail are simple least sophisticated people, and large by number, for example as we had seen for Michigan outcome where Biden came from behind and won it 

After last election I am actually under the impression it is manipulated and a ploy. Why else would the worlds smallest ego and biggest mouth be pretty quiet before the vote day if he were getting smoked like the polls suggested? If a poll shows Biden up large then it does two things...first it motivates the underdogs voters to get out and make their single vote count. It also puts the leaders group at ease and maybe some people think they do not need to vote because their candidate is going to win anyway. 

I think for Clinton that is why she "lost" because the polls said she was a shoe in and many stayed home, and this time around people felt the polls were wacky so it had less of an impact. And the fact that the vote numbers were larger this year and especially mail in kinda shows how a certain group even if Biden was leading STILL wanted Trump out..it was that big of a deal. I think the GOP use polls as a tool but lets see going forward if that goes away as the trick no longer works.

I might add Clinton lost was impacted by a lot folks genuinely called for a change from establishment, compounded by that last minute investigation called by comie of the FBI

@wallstreetcappers

 Ok.  But if it is manipulated.... By who?  The pollsters?  Or the public?

It seems to me it would be one of those two.  The pollsters would be hard to believe.  That would take a concentrated effort across multiple businesses - essentially a mass conspiracy.  Seems hard for me to think this is possible.

But the public?  Maybe.  Do Trump voters know to lie to pollsters as a strategy?  Maybe.

Thoughts?

@kings_duce

 Not looking for micro political reasons why clinton lost or biden might win.

Trying to talk specifically about the difference between macro poll numbers and betting numbers, and why the betting numbers are better than poll numbers.

Total, intentional psychological ops via polling being deployed by the extremely biased Leftist media.

Biden by 17 in Michigan! Are you kidding me?

Fox calls Arizona for Biden extremely early. Now Trump might flip Arizona!

Too many examples to put in here.

Van,

I see it the opposite of sundance of course. I see it as  GOP ploy to get voters off their butts and to the polls. How does it benefit the DNC to say that Biden is up large and that Clinton was up large? That is not a motivator at all to a voter. It makes the individual feel their vote has no need. I feel that way down here up until the last two elections..that my non GOP vote if that is the case is tossed into the lake, means nothing due to the sh!tty electoral college scheme.

Polls can be made by anyone, I could make a poll and who can question it? I think the value of a poll is getting smaller and smaller but it is my opinion the GOP uses polls as a tool, especially the last two general elections.

I saw a poll where Fred flinstone would win , must be true cause its a poll.... 

There were a few pollsters out there who had this as a very tight race, but because they were mostly conservative they were dismissed. They also predicted 2016 accurately. They claimed to use different techniques to get potential voters to reveal themselves. 

Most of these polls are incorrect for a couple of reasons just off the top of my head.

1. They are run by the leftist media, while I do agree, it wouldn't motivate people to vote seeing a large lead. It might lead people to change their vote from Trump because people want to be on the right/winning side. Or it could psychologically make them second guess themselves, 'everyone else seems to be voting Biden, maybe I should'.

2. Look at how Trump supporters are treated, attacked physically, verbally, fired for nothing more than supporting a candidate that people have skewed as racist. Trump wasn't racist until he ran as a Republican. Bush was also called Hitler, fascist and now the Obamas are hugged all over him. This is a common ploy by the left. They portray the conservatives as wanting to kill grandma by taking away their social security, insurance and kill black people and racist. Meanwhile what has the Democrats done for black people? They have been voting blue for how long and what's it got them?