The stock market has a solid track record of predicting the winner of the US presidential election

 Since 1984, the S&P 500 has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential election based on its price movements in the three months leading up to the election.

...And since 1928, the S&P has correctly predicted the next US president 87% of the time..Watching the S&P 500 could give us a clue whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden is most likely to win the election on November 3..

By following the price movements of the market in the three months leading up to the election.

When the S&P 500 has been higher the 3 months before the election, the incumbent party usually won, while when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually lost....e.i.  In 2016, very few expected Trump to beat Hillary Clinton...except for the stock market.The S&P 500 had a 9-day losing streak directly ahead of the election, setting the stage for the change in party leadership in the White House..

So far this month the S&P 500 has been operating in record territory closing Friday at 3,372 ... The S&P 500’s all-time high was back in February of 2020 it climbed to 3,386.. 

Since 1928, the S&P has correctly predicted the next US president 87%..( 92 years )

The three elections where the stock market incorrectly predicted the winner of the presidential election were:

1. In 1956, when the incumbent, Dwight D. Eisenhower, was reelected despite the S&P 500 falling 3.2% in the three months before the election.
2. In 1968, when the incumbent lost to Richard Nixon despite the S&P 500 rising 6% in the three months before the election.
3. In 1980, when the incumbent lost to Ronald Reagan despite the S&P 500 rising 6.9% in the three months before the election.

It looks like now is a good time to buy stock..

Haha...

Correlation only works when variables are the same. How does your thesis factor in the actions of the FED because in full reality the market levitation has ALL to do with the FED and zero to do with political causality.

I will not get in here too deep,in fact this is as deep as I'm going to go with,because this is definitely your territory..  It was an article I found on Business Insider a business and technology news website,,,I just found it nteresting nothing more ..In reality it may just be consequential and there is no connection to a political outcome.

However, I will state that it is my belief that although the actions of the fed will certainly have an influence on the market....but in the long run..the Fed follows the market and does not lead.

and I also believe Fed's ultimate goal is to influence public borrowing from banks...and not control the market..

What do you think KellyM ?