Baltimore at Miami (12/07/2014)

Away:  Baltimore [6-5-1 ATS]
Home:  Miami [7-5 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Sun Life Stadium

Featured Lines

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Baltimore:
Passing: Joe Flacco (2989)
Rushing: Justin Forsett (1009)
Receiving: Steve Smith (819)

Miami:
Passing: Ryan Tannehill (2817)
Rushing: Lamar Miller (729)
Receiving: Mike Wallace (661)

BALTIMORE    +    3

Baltimore (+2.5) 23 MIAMI 20

After losing at home last week against the Chargers, the Ravens are faced with a sense of urgency this week as they attempt to keep their playoff hopes alive. They match up well with the Dolphins on the ground with a rushing attack that averages 132 yards at 4.7 ypr against teams that allow 119 yards at 4.4 ypr and should be able to move the ball against a Dolphins rush defense that is allowing 119 yards at 4.4 ypr and just gave up 277 rushing yards to the Jets last week. Miami will have a harder time rushing the ball as the Ravens are allowing just 85 yards at 3.7 ypr (#4 ranking) to teams that gain 108 yards at 4.1 ypr on average. However, the Ravens will be missing defensive tackle Haloti Ngata who is the best run stopper and pass rusher on their defensive line and that will certainly hurt.

Miami is also 7-5 and in the thick of it in the AFC wildcard hunt and will be focused and prepared to play well. Their best chance of offensive success is in the air against a Ravens pass defense that can be exploited if Tannehill is given time in the pocket. That may be a tall order against a Ravens pass rush that generates 2.7 sacks per game against teams that allow 2.1. The Ravens qualify in a 116-65-6 bounce back situation and my model favors Baltimore in this game by 1.4 points. I like the Ravens here but can’t play on them given the struggles that they’ve had in the secondary on defense (803 yards passing and 61 points the past two games).