With these teams eliminated from playoff contention this game comes down to finishing the season strong and identifying and developing players to help their programs in 2016. Both teams have talent in different areas and in this game the Bucs current talent matches up well with the lack of talent on the Bears. Specifically - the Bucs ground game has been excellent this season behind a rebound performance from Doug Martin. Martin and the Bucs rushing offense has been one of the best in the league this season having rushed for an average of 143 yards per game at 5.0 ypr and will face a Chicago run defense that’s been a weak link for some time now. The Bears allow 126 yards per game at 4.7 ypr and have given up 100 yards or more in 11 of their 14 games so far this season. They’re going to have a hard time stopping the Bucs rush offense in this game.
On the other side the Bears don’t run the ball very well (averaging 4.0 ypr against teams that allow 4.3 ypr) while Tampa Bay is one of the better run defending defensive units in the league. The Bucs allow just 96 yards per game at 3.6 ypr against teams that gain 105 yards at 4.1 ypr and should be able to shut down the Bears on the ground. With their best receiver (Alshon Jeffrey) ailing the Bears could struggle to score in this game.
Tampa Bay has good efficiency numbers but they’ve struggled in the red zone – converting touchdowns 54.3% of the time on offense against teams that allow touchdowns on 61.0% of their opponent’s trips. Defensively they’ve been nearly as bad, allowing touchdowns 62.5% of the time in the red zone against opponents that score 56.7% of the time. With yard-per-play numbers better than average particularly against the run, there should be some regression to the mean in that key area.
The Bucs match up well this week vs. the Bears. This is Tampa’s last home game while the Bears are in a divisional sandwich and face the Lions in their home finale next week. My math favors the Bucs by 5.0 points, I’m taking the Bucs -3 & over 45.5. bol!!!
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TAMPA BAY (-3) 27 Chicago 22
With these teams eliminated from playoff contention this game comes down to finishing the season strong and identifying and developing players to help their programs in 2016. Both teams have talent in different areas and in this game the Bucs current talent matches up well with the lack of talent on the Bears. Specifically - the Bucs ground game has been excellent this season behind a rebound performance from Doug Martin. Martin and the Bucs rushing offense has been one of the best in the league this season having rushed for an average of 143 yards per game at 5.0 ypr and will face a Chicago run defense that’s been a weak link for some time now. The Bears allow 126 yards per game at 4.7 ypr and have given up 100 yards or more in 11 of their 14 games so far this season. They’re going to have a hard time stopping the Bucs rush offense in this game.
On the other side the Bears don’t run the ball very well (averaging 4.0 ypr against teams that allow 4.3 ypr) while Tampa Bay is one of the better run defending defensive units in the league. The Bucs allow just 96 yards per game at 3.6 ypr against teams that gain 105 yards at 4.1 ypr and should be able to shut down the Bears on the ground. With their best receiver (Alshon Jeffrey) ailing the Bears could struggle to score in this game.
Tampa Bay has good efficiency numbers but they’ve struggled in the red zone – converting touchdowns 54.3% of the time on offense against teams that allow touchdowns on 61.0% of their opponent’s trips. Defensively they’ve been nearly as bad, allowing touchdowns 62.5% of the time in the red zone against opponents that score 56.7% of the time. With yard-per-play numbers better than average particularly against the run, there should be some regression to the mean in that key area.
The Bucs match up well this week vs. the Bears. This is Tampa’s last home game while the Bears are in a divisional sandwich and face the Lions in their home finale next week. My math favors the Bucs by 5.0 points, I’m taking the Bucs -3 & over 45.5. bol!!!
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