Detroit looked decent against the Saints, mind you the saints defense played terrible in the first half, and generally poor throughout the game. Detroit took way too many penalties, "False Start, Number 72" seemed to be the Lions biggest vice of the game. However, based on what I saw, I think they build on that effort and show some more of that heartbeat in this one.
Lions 45 SF 17
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Detroit looked decent against the Saints, mind you the saints defense played terrible in the first half, and generally poor throughout the game. Detroit took way too many penalties, "False Start, Number 72" seemed to be the Lions biggest vice of the game. However, based on what I saw, I think they build on that effort and show some more of that heartbeat in this one.
San Francisco lost last week at home to the Bengals due to a -3 net turnover margin. They outgained the Bengals 318 total yards at 4.5 yppl to 242 yards at 4.0 yppl but those turnovers were a killer as the three Cincinnati touchdown drives began inside the 49ers 40-yd-line, two of them in the red zone. San Francisco did an effective job of shutting down the Bengals run game as they allowed just 68 rushing yards at 1.9 ypr and made things slightly interesting late in the game.
Coming off of that home loss and now travelling to take on a hot Lions team in their home finale, this is a tough spot for the 49ers. Especially considering how poorly they’ve played on the road this season (1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS – losing against the spread by an average of 8.9 points). Not to mention that they’re back home in their own home finale next week against division rival St. Louis in a winnable game and we have the makings of a bad spot for San Francisco.
Meanwhile, the Lions have been a different team since their bye week when replacement offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter was able to make some adjustments. Since then the Lions have played like a different team, going 4-2 SU and ATS. Matthew Stafford has really picked up his play with those changes and has thrown 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Adjusting the Lions for just the games since significant changes were made after the bye I get Detroit by 9.7 points in this game.
However, the Lions are in a big favorite let-down situation that plays against them that speaks to the fact that all the hype on Detroit and against San Francisco usually leads to value on the team you wouldn’t think. Based on the situation, which I have rated highly, I’m going to take the contrarian route and lean with the 49ers in a small play plus the large number.
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San Francisco (+10) 18 DETROIT 26
San Francisco lost last week at home to the Bengals due to a -3 net turnover margin. They outgained the Bengals 318 total yards at 4.5 yppl to 242 yards at 4.0 yppl but those turnovers were a killer as the three Cincinnati touchdown drives began inside the 49ers 40-yd-line, two of them in the red zone. San Francisco did an effective job of shutting down the Bengals run game as they allowed just 68 rushing yards at 1.9 ypr and made things slightly interesting late in the game.
Coming off of that home loss and now travelling to take on a hot Lions team in their home finale, this is a tough spot for the 49ers. Especially considering how poorly they’ve played on the road this season (1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS – losing against the spread by an average of 8.9 points). Not to mention that they’re back home in their own home finale next week against division rival St. Louis in a winnable game and we have the makings of a bad spot for San Francisco.
Meanwhile, the Lions have been a different team since their bye week when replacement offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter was able to make some adjustments. Since then the Lions have played like a different team, going 4-2 SU and ATS. Matthew Stafford has really picked up his play with those changes and has thrown 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Adjusting the Lions for just the games since significant changes were made after the bye I get Detroit by 9.7 points in this game.
However, the Lions are in a big favorite let-down situation that plays against them that speaks to the fact that all the hype on Detroit and against San Francisco usually leads to value on the team you wouldn’t think. Based on the situation, which I have rated highly, I’m going to take the contrarian route and lean with the 49ers in a small play plus the large number.
Third road trip to the midwest in 4 weeks for SF. the first 2 losing to Clev. and coming back to beat Chi. in OT. SF is playing better of late but their offense is still too anemic for me as they've scored more than 18 points just ONCE in the last 8 games (and that was in OT). Without the Rodger's hail mary they would be in the playoff hunt. SF is not a good road team, I'm taking Det. to cover. ---- THE Myth
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Third road trip to the midwest in 4 weeks for SF. the first 2 losing to Clev. and coming back to beat Chi. in OT. SF is playing better of late but their offense is still too anemic for me as they've scored more than 18 points just ONCE in the last 8 games (and that was in OT). Without the Rodger's hail mary they would be in the playoff hunt. SF is not a good road team, I'm taking Det. to cover. ---- THE Myth
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