Carolina can clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win here but they showed some cracks in their first loss of the season last week in Atlanta and I don’t think this win will come easy. Tampa matches up well with the Panthers and will be fired up to end their season on a positive note after dropping their last three games. The Bucs are playing better defensively at this point and are good against the run – the focus of Carolina’s offense. In fact, the Bucs have been one of the better run defending units in the NFL this season – allowing 3.6 ypr to teams that gain 4.1 ypr. From a yards-per-play perspective Carolina has actually been below average passing the ball – averaging 222 passing yards at 6.6 yps against teams that allow 249 yards at 6.7 yps, but they have made the big plays when needed, particularly in the red zone with a 66.1% conversion rate – good for #3 in the league. Tampa’s red zone defense hasn’t been particularly good – allowing a 61.5% conversion rate - but if there is just a touch of regression to the mean this game will be close.
The Bucs have the statistical profile of a good team from a yards-per-play angle – featuring a run game that has been one of the best – averaging 140 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr per game to go along with a passing offense has also been productive with a +.2 yps advantage. The problem has been that their red zone offense has been below average – scoring touchdowns 54.2% of the time against defenses that allow touchdowns in the red zone 60.4% of the time.
Another key stat that explains a lot of the Panthers success but isn’t all that predictive is their league leading +19 turnover differential (including +7 in net fumbles). The Bucs are -4 in net turnovers including -2 in net fumbles and while they have played well from the line of scrimmage, their poor red zone and turnovers numbers have derailed their season. If turnovers are even in this game the final score will be much closer than the point-spread suggests.
Tampa sucks lately, losing 3 in a row to 3 really bad teams, unusually for a Lovie Smith lead team. Carolina wants to send a message by winning big. bol!!!
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Tampa Bay 17 CAROLINA 38
Carolina can clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win here but they showed some cracks in their first loss of the season last week in Atlanta and I don’t think this win will come easy. Tampa matches up well with the Panthers and will be fired up to end their season on a positive note after dropping their last three games. The Bucs are playing better defensively at this point and are good against the run – the focus of Carolina’s offense. In fact, the Bucs have been one of the better run defending units in the NFL this season – allowing 3.6 ypr to teams that gain 4.1 ypr. From a yards-per-play perspective Carolina has actually been below average passing the ball – averaging 222 passing yards at 6.6 yps against teams that allow 249 yards at 6.7 yps, but they have made the big plays when needed, particularly in the red zone with a 66.1% conversion rate – good for #3 in the league. Tampa’s red zone defense hasn’t been particularly good – allowing a 61.5% conversion rate - but if there is just a touch of regression to the mean this game will be close.
The Bucs have the statistical profile of a good team from a yards-per-play angle – featuring a run game that has been one of the best – averaging 140 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr per game to go along with a passing offense has also been productive with a +.2 yps advantage. The problem has been that their red zone offense has been below average – scoring touchdowns 54.2% of the time against defenses that allow touchdowns in the red zone 60.4% of the time.
Another key stat that explains a lot of the Panthers success but isn’t all that predictive is their league leading +19 turnover differential (including +7 in net fumbles). The Bucs are -4 in net turnovers including -2 in net fumbles and while they have played well from the line of scrimmage, their poor red zone and turnovers numbers have derailed their season. If turnovers are even in this game the final score will be much closer than the point-spread suggests.
Tampa sucks lately, losing 3 in a row to 3 really bad teams, unusually for a Lovie Smith lead team. Carolina wants to send a message by winning big. bol!!!
TB needs to cut down on turnovers and it dont help playing a team like CAR. TB running back Martin should run with little more incentive after being benched.
CAR looks banged up as well in the running dept. Might force Newton to go to the air more often but TB has a decent pass defence and they held him in check last game. Important game for CAR here.
TB +10.5
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TB needs to cut down on turnovers and it dont help playing a team like CAR. TB running back Martin should run with little more incentive after being benched.
CAR looks banged up as well in the running dept. Might force Newton to go to the air more often but TB has a decent pass defence and they held him in check last game. Important game for CAR here.
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