- This play is strictly based on the draw, as Poulter would normally be a deserved favorite here given his course history. However, it is supposed to be very windy Thursday afternoon. Poulter tees off at 12:21 PM local time Day 1, while Schwartzel is first off in a two-some at 6:45 AM. He should be able to finish before the wind really starts blowing, while Poulter will have to play through the worst of it. I realize it is a 72-hole matchup, but this 1st round edge should negate the overall advantage Poulter has and gives a nice plus-money price on Charl.
Adam Scott (-103) over Xander Schauffele - 1U
- Have to like backing Scott here, who has 2 wins in his last 3 starts coming in and is a ball-striking machine. This isn't an event he plays every year but does have a 3rd place finish back in 2014 and a 12th in 2016. Xander is a very solid player and not one I typically like to go against. This is his first start at Bay Hill though - a place where some local knowledge does tend to help. Similar to the Schwartzel play, Scott has the favorable AM-PM draw opposite of Schauffele.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (-109) over Bubba Watson - 1U
- Fitzpatrick is a very consistent player who makes a lot of cuts (5 for 5 so far this year), making him a good option to back in matchups because he gives you a chance on the weekend. He finished 2nd here last year and also had a 13th place finish in 2017, so he knows how to get it around Arnie's Place. While Bubba's ceiling is much higher, he is a lot more inconsistent than Fitzpatrick. Outside of a 4th place finish back in 2012, his results at Bay Hill have been mediocre at best. Also, this play follows the same theme this week of AM-PM draw over PM-AM.
GL
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2019/20 Season: 34-27-2 (+8.99 Units)
Arnold Palmer Invitational 72-Hole Matchups
Charl Schwartzel (+132) over Ian Poulter - 1U
- This play is strictly based on the draw, as Poulter would normally be a deserved favorite here given his course history. However, it is supposed to be very windy Thursday afternoon. Poulter tees off at 12:21 PM local time Day 1, while Schwartzel is first off in a two-some at 6:45 AM. He should be able to finish before the wind really starts blowing, while Poulter will have to play through the worst of it. I realize it is a 72-hole matchup, but this 1st round edge should negate the overall advantage Poulter has and gives a nice plus-money price on Charl.
Adam Scott (-103) over Xander Schauffele - 1U
- Have to like backing Scott here, who has 2 wins in his last 3 starts coming in and is a ball-striking machine. This isn't an event he plays every year but does have a 3rd place finish back in 2014 and a 12th in 2016. Xander is a very solid player and not one I typically like to go against. This is his first start at Bay Hill though - a place where some local knowledge does tend to help. Similar to the Schwartzel play, Scott has the favorable AM-PM draw opposite of Schauffele.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (-109) over Bubba Watson - 1U
- Fitzpatrick is a very consistent player who makes a lot of cuts (5 for 5 so far this year), making him a good option to back in matchups because he gives you a chance on the weekend. He finished 2nd here last year and also had a 13th place finish in 2017, so he knows how to get it around Arnie's Place. While Bubba's ceiling is much higher, he is a lot more inconsistent than Fitzpatrick. Outside of a 4th place finish back in 2012, his results at Bay Hill have been mediocre at best. Also, this play follows the same theme this week of AM-PM draw over PM-AM.
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