Byron Nelson Plays

1-1 last week... Moving on to this week:

Jimmy Walker -110 vs Hideki M and B Grace: Like the rest of the guys posting here, I really like Walker this week. Makes me a little nervous just how much everyone is on his bandwagon but it seems to be for good reason. I am making each play for half a unit so just one unit in total. Splitting up the bets here hoping to limit the damage in case I am wrong. Looking to add another play or two but wanted to lock these in at these prices. Best of luck guys.

Careful with Walker over Grace who is better on links style tracks than Walker. 

Last 5 Opens Walker has missed the cut twice. 

Last 5 Opens for Grace...0 MC's

Grace has finished better than Walker 4 out of the last 5 Opens as well. 

I compare them to the Open because that's what it basically is this week. Links style, no trees, no water and wind is the biggest defense.

Grace way better on links style tracks....IMO

I hear this is not a true  links course though... you have to fly the ball to the pin location (large greens) and not run it up like a true links course.

jw1

 Due to the uncertainty of the new course and how it may play, I have decided to keep the number of plays low this week.  Perhaps add a single round match up later in the weekend that looks enticing... Anyways, I still like the Walker plays this week. AJ makes a good argument to like Grace this week but I have a feeling this course will not play and feel like a British Open layout. And if he happens to relish it then so be it. I almost made Putnam a play over Seamus. Power has very impressive putting stats this year but I think we may see some guys who have putted well previously struggle with the speed of these greens. Malnati at +150 is very enticing over Knox round one. I dont see why Knox should be this heavily favored. That said, sticking with two Walker plays against Hideki and Grace. Best of luck this week guys! I am looking forward to seeing how this new track plays... Enjoy the tournament!

Correct...there are a few holes you can fly it in. A FEW, maybe more. Mix of both I guess...

My point was the overall feel and look is links style. No sight lines, no trees, no water, wind is a factor, etc...

Also, that's Jordan's opinion on how to play the track. That doesn't necessarily mean flying it high into every green is the recipe for sucess at Trinity. 

Give it time to find it's true identity!

I know for sure, you can't say this is 100% an American style course? Right? Right, so what you have to handicapp is Links style players to it's proven otherwise.....

Totally agree with you. Keep an open mind and see how it plays out. Early on it seems like a bunch of guys are way up on greens in reg and fairways. Great call on Grace by the way so far. He seems right at home with this course. I read the wind will pick up tomorrow and Saturday... It will be interesting to see how they may change things... Best of luck AJ

Great start from Grace, but just a little better start from Walker! I'm impressed! Let's see what the next three days bring!

3rd round match up Byron Nelson Championship:

Maverick McNealy +105 vs Michael Thompson: I like this match up for a few reasons. McNealy is a 22 year old who is just starting his professional career. Thompson is 33 and has been grinding on the tour for 11 years now. He hasn't won in over five years. One player is a hopeful up and comer while the other seems to have taken on the role of being a journeyman. I believe the players who got to tee it up in the morning on Friday had an advantage over the guys who teed it up late. The winds were much more benign in the am Friday which allowed better scoring opportunities in my opinion. Thompson had this scenario play out for him. He played early Friday and carded a 65 while hitting 100% of the fairways and 16/18 greens.McNealy on the other hand was in the second to last groupings on Friday, with close to double the wind as the am players, yet was able to card a 67. In equal wind conditions Thursday Maverick shot 68 while Thompson shot 71. A case can be made that Maverick has had worse playing conditions than Thompson yet he is beating him in the tournament -8 to -7, yet they make him a dog on Saturday when they are in the same grouping. Give me the plus money in this spot.

Fade or follow best of luck

RB

Like the angle. I'm not a Thompson fan.  Journeyman.   The best thing I can say about Thompson is he has a hot sister (Lexi Thompson).

Final round Byron Nelson Championship:

McNealy +150 vs Hideki Matsuyama: This play is strictly a situational play based on who has the motivation to finish well. Both golfers begin the day 10 shots off the lead. It is VERY unlikely either guy will make a run to win the tournament. So you have a top 10 in the world playing with a guy who can use every dollar possible to make it to the big tour. Which guy will grind and try to make every shot count on Sunday? Not to mention Hideki really hasn't shown an affinity for this course yet. He had a great 63 on Friday but that was with a ridiculously good round of putting (he was five shots better than the field in putting that day). His other two rounds have been very ordinary at best shooting a combined +1 and only making four birdies in those two rounds. So you have a golfer who really doesn't care what he shoots compared to another guy who wants to do his very best to earn his touring card for next season. And you get +150 as well? I normally don't double dip on guys in the same tournament but I can't pass up this spot. If Matsuyama goes nuts then he can not only win this match up but possibly beat Walker as well. I won with McNealy on Saturday and I will try to go 2-0 with him on Sunday.

Fade or follow best of luck...

@Sacker agreed on Lexi by the way