Farmers

5 plays  YTD 6 wins 2.5 losses 1 tie

+3.05 units  

Palmer -135 v Horschel
Palmer loves this course
Last 4 finishes 2/21/13/2
Plus playing well now with a 12th last week and before that 11/26/27
Horschel an east coast (Florida) guy who plays well on Bermuda greens. Not so great out west.
He has played here 10x the past 11 years and mostly not good
Last 5x here he has 4x 54th or worse but the other time he was 8th and was 8th again 6 years back. But overall in 10 starts 7 are 39th or worse here
Just ok lately with finish 36 and 23 

McNealy -125 v Wolff
McNealy a California guy with a great college career who has finally hit his stride as a pro
After a time off came back last week and was 27th. Before that was sharp finishing 19/11/25
Plus here although he MC last year before that finished 15 &29 hereWolff MC last week in 1st start back after a few months break. Was near bottom of the barrel

Split the bet against Gooch
Zalatoris -120 v Gooch (2/3)
Connors +110 v Gooch (1/3)
Zalatoris was good last week finishing 6th and was 7th in his start prior to that.
Last year Zalatoris finished 7th here. He is good on tough courses and this qualifies as tough.
Gooch was very good for a while not too long ago but seems to have regressed lately. Last few starts he is MC/27/15
But what I also see is his history here is not great
48/36/3/51
Connors so solid so can't resist plus money
He did MC last week after an awful round 1 and he isn't the best putter and it was a putting contest. He was playing well before that finishes 11/5/22
This week tough course Connors is a good ball striker. He has played here 2x and was 37/29
Should be ok

Homa +105 v Kim
Homa plays well in California and is from California
Last year he was 18th here and year before was 9th here
Most recent event 3 weeks ago was 15th (Kim was 23rd same event)
Kim is so up and down but mostly down. But when he is good he is very good.
Kim history here is not great. MC/29/35/WD/18

Split the bet against DJ (1/2 unit each)
Burns -110 v DJ
Berger -120 v DJ
It's a play against what will likely be a "rusty" DJ.
DJ has been on the shelf for months! I like betting against that. Plus the last 4 years he hasn't played the event and starting 5 years back he was MC/18/MC/51/43/3 so not a great history here Burns last 4 starts finished 19/2/3/7
Burns playing the best golf of his life and was 18th here last year.

Berger too playing the best golf of his career.
The 2 starts this year he was 5th and 7th.
History here not great so that bothers me as he played here 4x MC the last 3x while initial start here was 24th
Berger was playing injured for a few years and has really come on