Posted:
#1
Open Championship:
The Open returns to what appears to be a changed St Andrews, Tiger Woods who won here in 2000 and 2005 claims to have "not recognised" the old course when he arrived as it was so green, but I doubt it is going to play too differently and if the high gusty wind arrives as forecast on Friday, it will show a different side to the benign links which newcomers might be fooled into thinking it has become. Late afternoon on Friday looks like being very testing indeed and those out on course after 13.00 could and it has to said that the weather can change very quickly in this part of the world, be at a big disadvantage. That includes Snedeker, Bubba, Westwood, Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Day, Woods and Oosthuizen ( who have won the last three Opens at St Andrews between them) and the wonder boy of golf ,Jordan Spieth.
That is not to say they they cannot win, the wind might not arrive or could even come early (!), but it is forecast to be late in the day, pretty strong and gusty and if it does, these guys will find it tough, last year, you might remember, our selection Adam Scott was "robbed" by the weather and was one of only two who finished in the top 25 from the "wrong" side of the draw, which was on that that occasion ( late Thursday/early Friday).
Big name players, or those with solid Open form who currently look to be on the better side of the draw include Adam Scott, Kaymer, Mickelson, Stenson, Kuchar, Rose, Fowler, Furyk and Casey.
Betting pre tournament as we are, I could only consider those players going out earlyish on Friday and I would also need them to have good solid links form and be in decent shape form wise. Spieth is the best player on the planet right now and by some way, but having arrived only on Monday and never having hit a shot at the course before then and on the wrong side of the draw, he could not enter my calculations at such low odds.
I am going to start with Adam Scott, I was incredibly bullish about his chances
Usually, I can forget about losers in an instant and that was actually a winner as I put him up to win and finish top 10 and he was T5th, but, and I promise this is the last time I will mention it, from the other side of the draw he wins by 3-4 strokes and I do not care how well Rory McIlroy played and it still irritates me if I think about it and I wish there was a way that all golfers could play in the same conditions, but until that indoor course (!) in China is built, that is not possible. However, after the first two days it is less of an issue as the leading contenders are playing in a fairly narrow time band. Not a classic 2015 for Scott by any means, he has struggled with his game and by trying to switch to the traditional putter and to life without coach Steve Williams (more of both later) , but in his last two starts, and the Australian plays a very limited schedule anyway based solely around majors and WGC.big events, he has shown signs that it is all coming together. Scott shot 66-66 on Friday/Saturday at the Colonial for a top 25 finish and then a Sunday 64 at the US Open for a share of 4th spot.
He has gone back to the broom handled putter for as long as rules will allow and has accepted Steve Williams back onto the bag, the pair had split amicably only because the Kiwi wanted to spend more time with his family and only caddy for the big events, which Scott originally declined, but they are working out something to suit both and the hugely experienced Williams, who carried the bag for Tiger Woods in 13 of his 14 major wins, including two here at St Andrews, is going to be invaluable this week and I would suggest that he knows the course better than all but a (small) handful of golfers taking part this week and add that to Scott's expertise and Open form and (hopefully) good draw and Adam Scott HAS to go close.
Williams, who is a very plain speaker has been telling Scott every day that there is no "bloody" reason why he cannot win this week, the pair see saving par as being key and have been seen holing hundreds of putts from 6-8 feet in practice. Like last year at Hoylake, Scott arrived very early and has played the course as much (more ?) than anyone in build up. St Andrews is a funny par 72 in that there are 14 par 4's and you have to play them well, Scott was only six shots adrift of 3rd here in 2010 and had bogies at 13 par 4's which is why they have been focusing on saving par in practice this week. Scott is a more complete player now, better anyway on Par 4's (see last year's notes) and now a major champion. Scott has finished top 10 in 10 of his last 18 majors and top 15 in 14 of those and I think his odds are just great this week.
Adam Scott to win outright 21.0-26.0 general quote.....there is 25.0 on Betfair for huge liquidity.
Adam Scott to finish top 10 2.875-3.25 general quote.
I must admit I was very keen on the chances of Louis Oosthuizen, who I bigged up on the final day of the US Open when he played well and he won here really very easily in 2010, but on his side of the draw it will be tough if the wind blows. I might get involved properly with him over the weekend if he survives that, but he was going to form a major part of my pre tournament betting before I saw the weather forecast, so just to "stop" him running away with this early, I will suggest Louis Oosthuizen to win outright at a general 26.0 .
Rickie Fowler served us well at the Scottish Open on Sunday and once again proved his liking for this style of golf.
He closed out the tournament very well, looked incredibly relaxed and happy in post round interviews, but focused on St Andrews and the absence of McIlroy ( see above) is bigger for him than anyone else, having been edged out by Rory twice last year and the young american is on the "right" side of the draw. Fowler came here in 2010 as a 21 yo and finished T14th after an opening round 79, 16 shots worse than McIlroy and it says so much about him that he made the cut, let alone posted a big finish, he is twice the player now, has been top five in two of the last four Opens and with Spieth, Bubba, Dustin, Tiger, Snedeker etc on the other side of the draw, I certainly see him as the most likely US contender. I am very keen on this bet............
Rickie Fowler to be Top American golfer 8.50-10.0 general quote......1/4 odds four places, decent profit if he is in the top four US finishers and it is very difficult for me to see him out of contention.
The Open returns to what appears to be a changed St Andrews, Tiger Woods who won here in 2000 and 2005 claims to have "not recognised" the old course when he arrived as it was so green, but I doubt it is going to play too differently and if the high gusty wind arrives as forecast on Friday, it will show a different side to the benign links which newcomers might be fooled into thinking it has become. Late afternoon on Friday looks like being very testing indeed and those out on course after 13.00 could and it has to said that the weather can change very quickly in this part of the world, be at a big disadvantage. That includes Snedeker, Bubba, Westwood, Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Day, Woods and Oosthuizen ( who have won the last three Opens at St Andrews between them) and the wonder boy of golf ,Jordan Spieth.
That is not to say they they cannot win, the wind might not arrive or could even come early (!), but it is forecast to be late in the day, pretty strong and gusty and if it does, these guys will find it tough, last year, you might remember, our selection Adam Scott was "robbed" by the weather and was one of only two who finished in the top 25 from the "wrong" side of the draw, which was on that that occasion ( late Thursday/early Friday).
Big name players, or those with solid Open form who currently look to be on the better side of the draw include Adam Scott, Kaymer, Mickelson, Stenson, Kuchar, Rose, Fowler, Furyk and Casey.
Betting pre tournament as we are, I could only consider those players going out earlyish on Friday and I would also need them to have good solid links form and be in decent shape form wise. Spieth is the best player on the planet right now and by some way, but having arrived only on Monday and never having hit a shot at the course before then and on the wrong side of the draw, he could not enter my calculations at such low odds.
I am going to start with Adam Scott, I was incredibly bullish about his chances
Usually, I can forget about losers in an instant and that was actually a winner as I put him up to win and finish top 10 and he was T5th, but, and I promise this is the last time I will mention it, from the other side of the draw he wins by 3-4 strokes and I do not care how well Rory McIlroy played and it still irritates me if I think about it and I wish there was a way that all golfers could play in the same conditions, but until that indoor course (!) in China is built, that is not possible. However, after the first two days it is less of an issue as the leading contenders are playing in a fairly narrow time band. Not a classic 2015 for Scott by any means, he has struggled with his game and by trying to switch to the traditional putter and to life without coach Steve Williams (more of both later) , but in his last two starts, and the Australian plays a very limited schedule anyway based solely around majors and WGC.big events, he has shown signs that it is all coming together. Scott shot 66-66 on Friday/Saturday at the Colonial for a top 25 finish and then a Sunday 64 at the US Open for a share of 4th spot.
He has gone back to the broom handled putter for as long as rules will allow and has accepted Steve Williams back onto the bag, the pair had split amicably only because the Kiwi wanted to spend more time with his family and only caddy for the big events, which Scott originally declined, but they are working out something to suit both and the hugely experienced Williams, who carried the bag for Tiger Woods in 13 of his 14 major wins, including two here at St Andrews, is going to be invaluable this week and I would suggest that he knows the course better than all but a (small) handful of golfers taking part this week and add that to Scott's expertise and Open form and (hopefully) good draw and Adam Scott HAS to go close.
Williams, who is a very plain speaker has been telling Scott every day that there is no "bloody" reason why he cannot win this week, the pair see saving par as being key and have been seen holing hundreds of putts from 6-8 feet in practice. Like last year at Hoylake, Scott arrived very early and has played the course as much (more ?) than anyone in build up. St Andrews is a funny par 72 in that there are 14 par 4's and you have to play them well, Scott was only six shots adrift of 3rd here in 2010 and had bogies at 13 par 4's which is why they have been focusing on saving par in practice this week. Scott is a more complete player now, better anyway on Par 4's (see last year's notes) and now a major champion. Scott has finished top 10 in 10 of his last 18 majors and top 15 in 14 of those and I think his odds are just great this week.
Adam Scott to win outright 21.0-26.0 general quote.....there is 25.0 on Betfair for huge liquidity.
Adam Scott to finish top 10 2.875-3.25 general quote.
I must admit I was very keen on the chances of Louis Oosthuizen, who I bigged up on the final day of the US Open when he played well and he won here really very easily in 2010, but on his side of the draw it will be tough if the wind blows. I might get involved properly with him over the weekend if he survives that, but he was going to form a major part of my pre tournament betting before I saw the weather forecast, so just to "stop" him running away with this early, I will suggest Louis Oosthuizen to win outright at a general 26.0 .
Rickie Fowler served us well at the Scottish Open on Sunday and once again proved his liking for this style of golf.
He closed out the tournament very well, looked incredibly relaxed and happy in post round interviews, but focused on St Andrews and the absence of McIlroy ( see above) is bigger for him than anyone else, having been edged out by Rory twice last year and the young american is on the "right" side of the draw. Fowler came here in 2010 as a 21 yo and finished T14th after an opening round 79, 16 shots worse than McIlroy and it says so much about him that he made the cut, let alone posted a big finish, he is twice the player now, has been top five in two of the last four Opens and with Spieth, Bubba, Dustin, Tiger, Snedeker etc on the other side of the draw, I certainly see him as the most likely US contender. I am very keen on this bet............
Rickie Fowler to be Top American golfer 8.50-10.0 general quote......1/4 odds four places, decent profit if he is in the top four US finishers and it is very difficult for me to see him out of contention.
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