5 Oosthuizen -140 v. 12 Van Pelt +110
Oosthuizen – 1 appearance out in rd 1. After winning in S. Africa, has gone: MC, 37, 62.
Van Pelt – rookie. Has MC in 4 of 5 starts this year. But the one he made was an 18 in the desert at the Waste Mgmt.
Lean – pick your poison. I'll probably lay off this one and look to fade whoever wins it in rd 2.
6 Quiros -220 v 11 Yang -170
Quiros - out in rd 1 each of the last 2 years. Maybe nobody hotter this year: 23, 8, 2, 1. You'd certainly think his length would be a huge advantage on this course.
Yang – 1 win in 2 appearances. Has had success in AZ, including 8th this year at the Waste Mgmt.
Lean – Quiros is hot and his length should be a big factor here. If he had any better match play record, I'd think about playing him to win the event. I'll wait to see how he does in rd 1 and see how much the juice drops as he advances.
7 Allenby -115 v 10 Fisher -115
Allenby - Just a 2-5 record since reaching the quarterfinals in 2005 Just a 2-5 record since reaching the quarterfinals in 2005. After a very slow start this year, had a nice 4th at rivieria.
Fisher – out rd 1 last year, finished 4th the year before. Had one bad round this year at Qatar, other than that has been pretty good, most recently 10th at Dubai.
Lean – Allenby was definitely on it last weekend, but fisher has a slight length advantage and if he gets hot can make a lot of birdies. I might lean fisher here, mostly because I expected to see Allenby be about -140 or so.
8 Fowler -150 v 9 Hanson +120
Fowler – rookie. Halved E. Molinari in the Ryder Cup. 3 starts this year all made cuts, all 35 or better, including 13 in Phoenix.
Hanson – 3 starts, out in rd 1 twice and rd 3 once. 4 starts this year, 2 top 10's. Most recently 9th in the tough Dubai field. Mickelson beat him handily in the Ryder cup.
Lean – I don't understand the love affair with fowler, not yet anyway. Most of his good finishes have been in weaker fields in tournaments where the winning score is somewhere around -20. Until he throws more good finishes in there in real good fields, I think he's regularly overvalued. I'm gonna take a shot with Hanson. What does scare me a little is a lot of Fowler's success has been out west, but that's not enough to get me off this one.
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