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    All Forums | Pro Golf

    Horschel over Goosen round 1

    sacker17
    benhogan76
    KODOS
    iamsok
    AJLightning
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 943
    Posts: 19
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 9:11 AM ET #1

    My threads lately have not worked out. 
    Lots of good info mixed with bad luck. 
    I'm big on Fleetwood at Qatar and the guy shoots +1 round 1 where EVERYONE is under par
    Coming into tourney he shot under par in 41 of last 42 events
    Today with everyone under par he shoots +1.  WTF!!!

    Last week I bet big against Chris Wood at Abu Dhabi. 10 of his last 11 rounds at the event were 71 or higher. Used Jaidee the old pro who has good history there and doesn't miss many cuts anywhere. 
    Chris Wood to form shoots 76 but comes back with 68 (where did that come from). Still misses cut. 
    All I need is Jaidee to be usual solid nothing special make cut machine. He Fs up and misses cut too but 2 worse. Lose
    Jaidee had good history there
    Can't catch a break

    Today Horschel over Goosen 
    Goosen playing awful right now. Since June
    Played in Europe last 2 events and Shot
    73,75,76,75 at Nedbank Challenge 11-13-16
    80,71 at SA Open on 01-15-17
    6 rounds none better than 71

    Before that was at 2 PGA events 

    Played in USA 2 events
    71,71 MC at Safeway on 10-16-16
    74,73 for MC at Sanderson on 10-30-16

    That's some pretty sh!tty golf and he turns 48 next week

    Horschel on other hand in last 5 events worst round is 71
    Included is a 2nd at RSM at -17 on 11-20-16
    T3 at Unofficial event Franklin Templeton shootout at -26 on 12-10-16
    Then made cut at Sony a few weeks ago and shot -3

    Last year at this event  T8  and Goosen MC

    Better golfer 
    Better form
    Better here last year
    Young man playing against out of form old guy
    I'm gonna go big -150. 

    How can it lose?  The way my luck is going it'll probably lose
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    My threads lately have not worked out. 
    Lots of good info mixed with bad luck. 
    I'm big on Fleetwood at Qatar and the guy shoots +1 round 1 where EVERYONE is under par
    Coming into tourney he shot under par in 41 of last 42 events
    Today with everyone under par he shoots +1.  WTF!!!

    Last week I bet big against Chris Wood at Abu Dhabi. 10 of his last 11 rounds at the event were 71 or higher. Used Jaidee the old pro who has good history there and doesn't miss many cuts anywhere. 
    Chris Wood to form shoots 76 but comes back with 68 (where did that come from). Still misses cut. 
    All I need is Jaidee to be usual solid nothing special make cut machine. He Fs up and misses cut too but 2 worse. Lose
    Jaidee had good history there
    Can't catch a break

    Today Horschel over Goosen 
    Goosen playing awful right now. Since June
    Played in Europe last 2 events and Shot
    73,75,76,75 at Nedbank Challenge 11-13-16
    80,71 at SA Open on 01-15-17
    6 rounds none better than 71

    Before that was at 2 PGA events 

    Played in USA 2 events
    71,71 MC at Safeway on 10-16-16
    74,73 for MC at Sanderson on 10-30-16

    That's some pretty sh!tty golf and he turns 48 next week

    Horschel on other hand in last 5 events worst round is 71
    Included is a 2nd at RSM at -17 on 11-20-16
    T3 at Unofficial event Franklin Templeton shootout at -26 on 12-10-16
    Then made cut at Sony a few weeks ago and shot -3

    Last year at this event  T8  and Goosen MC

    Better golfer 
    Better form
    Better here last year
    Young man playing against out of form old guy
    I'm gonna go big -150. 

    How can it lose?  The way my luck is going it'll probably lose
     
    benhogan76
    benhogan76
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 9:58 AM ET #2

    Seems very logical but I never feel good laying 50 cents in golf match up, is it full tournament or 1st round match up?  Are they paired together?
    1.35 trillion
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    Seems very logical but I never feel good laying 50 cents in golf match up, is it full tournament or 1st round match up?  Are they paired together?
     
    KODOS
    KODOS
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    Posts: 72
    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 10:09 AM ET #3

    My model shows that bet has very high value. Unfortunately, none of the books I deal with have it listed, otherwise I'd be all over it.

    Good luck.
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    My model shows that bet has very high value. Unfortunately, none of the books I deal with have it listed, otherwise I'd be all over it.

    Good luck.
     
    iamsok
    iamsok
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 10:23 AM ET #4

    I like the pick. Willing to lay the -160 juice on this action! 
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    I like the pick. Willing to lay the -160 juice on this action! 
     
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 12:07 PM ET #5

    Ben Hogan
    Both go off at 10:30 EST so I think they are probably paired together.
    1st round bet only.
    I max bet it.
    My guy doesn't take golf h2h more than $300.
    I did max

    I know anything can happen in 1 round But it looks very solid from both ends.  Anti-Goosen and Pro-Horschel

    I'll be surprised and very sick if it doesn't win.

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    Ben Hogan
    Both go off at 10:30 EST so I think they are probably paired together.
    1st round bet only.
    I max bet it.
    My guy doesn't take golf h2h more than $300.
    I did max

    I know anything can happen in 1 round But it looks very solid from both ends.  Anti-Goosen and Pro-Horschel

    I'll be surprised and very sick if it doesn't win.

     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 12:17 PM ET #6

    Oops edit time
    Tee off is 10:30 PST so about 13:30 EST
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    Oops edit time
    Tee off is 10:30 PST so about 13:30 EST
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 4:17 PM ET #7

    Horschel -1
    Goosen E
    Thru 9

    We should be up at least 3 strokes.
    Started on back nine
    13th Horshel misses 5' birdie
    16th Horschel misses 12' birdie
    17th Horschel misses 12' birdie putt
    18th Horschel misses 10' birdie putt

    Goosen closes missed putt is 16'

    Horschel
        Driving 85.71%
        GIR 77.78%
        Strokes gained putting 0.04

    Goosen
        Driving 42.86%
        GIR 55.56%
        Strokes gained putting 0.395

    How are we only up 1 stroke?

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    Horschel -1
    Goosen E
    Thru 9

    We should be up at least 3 strokes.
    Started on back nine
    13th Horshel misses 5' birdie
    16th Horschel misses 12' birdie
    17th Horschel misses 12' birdie putt
    18th Horschel misses 10' birdie putt

    Goosen closes missed putt is 16'

    Horschel
        Driving 85.71%
        GIR 77.78%
        Strokes gained putting 0.04

    Goosen
        Driving 42.86%
        GIR 55.56%
        Strokes gained putting 0.395

    How are we only up 1 stroke?

     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 6:03 PM ET #8

    Still up 1 stroke only thru 15.
    What a sh!tshow!
    Horschel just missed 5' birdie on 15 and of course Goosen made 5' birdie on 15 to pull w/i 1.

    Stats ridiculous in favor of Horschel yet only up 1 stroke
    Driving Accuracy Horschel 75%  Goosen 25%
    GIR Horschel 86.67%  Goosen  60%

    Waiting to get it up the arse!

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    Still up 1 stroke only thru 15.
    What a sh!tshow!
    Horschel just missed 5' birdie on 15 and of course Goosen made 5' birdie on 15 to pull w/i 1.

    Stats ridiculous in favor of Horschel yet only up 1 stroke
    Driving Accuracy Horschel 75%  Goosen 25%
    GIR Horschel 86.67%  Goosen  60%

    Waiting to get it up the arse!

     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 6:16 PM ET #9

    Horschel misses another short 5' bird on 16.
    G-ddamnit!

    This should be over and we are up 1
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    Horschel misses another short 5' bird on 16.
    G-ddamnit!

    This should be over and we are up 1
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 6:54 PM ET #10

    What a F'n joke

    Horschel misses 5' bird on 18 and it's a g-ddamn MTFn push!

    Final stats round 1
    Driving accuracy Horschel 78.57%  Goosen 35.71%
    GIR. Horschel 83.33%. Goosen 66.67%

    How did this not win?  Really?
    Almost impossible 
    Feel like I can't get arrested in a Mexican whorehouse with a fistful of $50s and a bottle of tequila 
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    What a F'n joke

    Horschel misses 5' bird on 18 and it's a g-ddamn MTFn push!

    Final stats round 1
    Driving accuracy Horschel 78.57%  Goosen 35.71%
    GIR. Horschel 83.33%. Goosen 66.67%

    How did this not win?  Really?
    Almost impossible 
    Feel like I can't get arrested in a Mexican whorehouse with a fistful of $50s and a bottle of tequila 
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 7:00 PM ET #11

    All I can say is I've been very unlucky lately and just waiting for the ax to fall. 

    Goosen blows. Hopefully we can bet against him round 2
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    All I can say is I've been very unlucky lately and just waiting for the ax to fall. 

    Goosen blows. Hopefully we can bet against him round 2
     
    benhogan76
    benhogan76
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 7:21 PM ET #12

    What I found odd about the match up was why would they put Goosen with Horschel assuming like anything else they want even money on each side?  Mahan was other guy in that 3 some and to me that would be a much easier way to get it.  You were right to state all the reason anyone would fade Goose here, that and the price only being -150 is what made me nervous.  Tough push, get it back tomorrow.

    1.35 trillion
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    What I found odd about the match up was why would they put Goosen with Horschel assuming like anything else they want even money on each side?  Mahan was other guy in that 3 some and to me that would be a much easier way to get it.  You were right to state all the reason anyone would fade Goose here, that and the price only being -150 is what made me nervous.  Tough push, get it back tomorrow.

     
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2017 - 7:29 PM ET #13

    Never behind on the bet 
    A push is not a fair outcome. But life and especially gambling not fair. 
    Goosen scrambled and putted well
    Horschel missed lots of shortish putts. 
    So so frustrating. 
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    Never behind on the bet 
    A push is not a fair outcome. But life and especially gambling not fair. 
    Goosen scrambled and putted well
    Horschel missed lots of shortish putts. 
    So so frustrating. 
     
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2017 - 7:39 AM ET #14

    Round 2 
    Same matchup but line now -165. 
    I'm betting it again although I really hate laying this much. 
    I'm on a bad luck streak so beware.  We've all been there and know that even when you are winning you feel the bad karma that something will happen. 
    Horschel totally outplayed Goosen yesterday and only an abhoration that Horschel didn't win.  
    Good luck to all. 

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    Round 2 
    Same matchup but line now -165. 
    I'm betting it again although I really hate laying this much. 
    I'm on a bad luck streak so beware.  We've all been there and know that even when you are winning you feel the bad karma that something will happen. 
    Horschel totally outplayed Goosen yesterday and only an abhoration that Horschel didn't win.  
    Good luck to all. 

     
    AJLightning
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2017 - 9:24 AM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:

    What I found odd about the match up was why would they put Goosen with Horschel assuming like anything else they want even money on each side?  Mahan was other guy in that 3 some and to me that would be a much easier way to get it.  You were right to state all the reason anyone would fade Goose here, that and the price only being -150 is what made me nervous.  Tough push, get it back tomorrow.




    Sucker bet....that was for Goosen to win. Missed it by 1 shot
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    Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:

    What I found odd about the match up was why would they put Goosen with Horschel assuming like anything else they want even money on each side?  Mahan was other guy in that 3 some and to me that would be a much easier way to get it.  You were right to state all the reason anyone would fade Goose here, that and the price only being -150 is what made me nervous.  Tough push, get it back tomorrow.




    Sucker bet....that was for Goosen to win. Missed it by 1 shot
     
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2017 - 5:15 PM ET #16

    Winner.
    Goosen sucks.
    He was +4 today. Horschel was +1.
    It was close but Goosen faded.
    Damn line went up to -165 today
    vs. yesterday -150 so I bet less ($200 vs $300).

    Mismatch really



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    Winner.
    Goosen sucks.
    He was +4 today. Horschel was +1.
    It was close but Goosen faded.
    Damn line went up to -165 today
    vs. yesterday -150 so I bet less ($200 vs $300).

    Mismatch really



     
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2017 - 5:17 PM ET #17

    Winner.
    Goosen sucks.
    He was +4 today. Horschel was +1.
    It was close but Goosen faded.
    Damn line went up to -165 today
    vs. yesterday -150 so I bet less ($200 vs $300).

    Mismatch really



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    Winner.
    Goosen sucks.
    He was +4 today. Horschel was +1.
    It was close but Goosen faded.
    Damn line went up to -165 today
    vs. yesterday -150 so I bet less ($200 vs $300).

    Mismatch really



     
    benhogan76
    benhogan76
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    Joined: Apr, 2008
    Posts: 63792
    Posted: Jan. 27, 2017 - 5:38 PM ET #18

    Not sure you are getting my point.
    1.35 trillion
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    Not sure you are getting my point.
     
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posts: 1595
    Posted: Jan. 27, 2017 - 6:08 PM ET #19

    Ben
    I cant gamble on conspiracy theories.
    It was a bad line at -150. Should've been higher.  Today it was higher and you might have thought it'd be the same or less off a push round 1.  But Horschel did outplay Goosen round 1 and somehow didn't win.  Stats supported Horschel and maybe the money flow too so they raised up the line to get equal action.

    It's tough laying big wood in 1 round only as anything can happen in 1 round of golf with pro golfers. Just thought Goosen is not sharp.

    Anyway needed a winner as I've been having some tough luck lately.

    Lost my Day v DJ bet by 1 stroke (+3 to +2) and both MC).
    My writeup was that I thought DJ would not be sharp off the travel to the middle east and back.
    DJ wasn't sharp so the thought was good.
    My problem was that the number 1 player in the world was crap. 
    Yesterday Day missed 4 separate putts of 4' or less on the back 9 alone! Go figure.

    For the same reason I bet against Rickie Fowler who is currently +2 thru 14 and likely will miss the cut.
    I chose to bet Reed instead of Rose.  Reed decided not to tee up so the bet cancelled.  Rose is leading.  I should've bet both against Fowler as the jetlag theory would've been a winner there too.
    Bad luck with Reed not playing as all he would've had to do was make the cut.  Hell, I should've bet Matsuyama against DJ as that was available too.

    Lost my bet in Qatar too.
    There I bet Fleetwood who had been so sharp since September.
    He came in off a win hitting 91.7% GIR and had 41 of last 42 rounds under par.  That's insanely amazing play.
    I bet him good and he has 2 rounds over par and misses the cut.

    Has been a rough go and needed this winner.\

    Good luck to you.
    Reply
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    Ben
    I cant gamble on conspiracy theories.
    It was a bad line at -150. Should've been higher.  Today it was higher and you might have thought it'd be the same or less off a push round 1.  But Horschel did outplay Goosen round 1 and somehow didn't win.  Stats supported Horschel and maybe the money flow too so they raised up the line to get equal action.

    It's tough laying big wood in 1 round only as anything can happen in 1 round of golf with pro golfers. Just thought Goosen is not sharp.

    Anyway needed a winner as I've been having some tough luck lately.

    Lost my Day v DJ bet by 1 stroke (+3 to +2) and both MC).
    My writeup was that I thought DJ would not be sharp off the travel to the middle east and back.
    DJ wasn't sharp so the thought was good.
    My problem was that the number 1 player in the world was crap. 
    Yesterday Day missed 4 separate putts of 4' or less on the back 9 alone! Go figure.

    For the same reason I bet against Rickie Fowler who is currently +2 thru 14 and likely will miss the cut.
    I chose to bet Reed instead of Rose.  Reed decided not to tee up so the bet cancelled.  Rose is leading.  I should've bet both against Fowler as the jetlag theory would've been a winner there too.
    Bad luck with Reed not playing as all he would've had to do was make the cut.  Hell, I should've bet Matsuyama against DJ as that was available too.

    Lost my bet in Qatar too.
    There I bet Fleetwood who had been so sharp since September.
    He came in off a win hitting 91.7% GIR and had 41 of last 42 rounds under par.  That's insanely amazing play.
    I bet him good and he has 2 rounds over par and misses the cut.

    Has been a rough go and needed this winner.\

    Good luck to you.
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