Looking to stay hot with the Houston Open this week. I have a few full tournament plays to share with you and hopefully some round 1 plays later on. If you would like any insight on the picks that I have chosen feel free to ask. If you think I am on the wrong side of a pick, I would love to hear your reason why you think that. Any other matches that you like that you think I missed out on, let me hear them.
C. Davis (-121) over Spieth
J. Hahn (+121) over Van Rooyen
Matsuyama (-128) over Koepka
M. Hughes (-113) over Stenson
A. Schenk (-115) over Snedeker
B. Harman (-135) over Z. Johnson
Finau (-130) over Henley
As always best of luck to everyone, lets get some money from those books!
Mo Money
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Looking to stay hot with the Houston Open this week. I have a few full tournament plays to share with you and hopefully some round 1 plays later on. If you would like any insight on the picks that I have chosen feel free to ask. If you think I am on the wrong side of a pick, I would love to hear your reason why you think that. Any other matches that you like that you think I missed out on, let me hear them.
C. Davis (-121) over Spieth
J. Hahn (+121) over Van Rooyen
Matsuyama (-128) over Koepka
M. Hughes (-113) over Stenson
A. Schenk (-115) over Snedeker
B. Harman (-135) over Z. Johnson
Finau (-130) over Henley
As always best of luck to everyone, lets get some money from those books!
I’m liking Tony Finau (-130) for round one. But Henley does play well at that course considering his top four in his last two starts. Also like the Matsuyama (-128) vs Koepka and Brian Harman (-130) vs Z. Johnson.
Could I get some insight on those picks if you don’t mind. It’ll give me a better feel before I decided to put in the play. Thanks
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Mo Money!!
I’m liking Tony Finau (-130) for round one. But Henley does play well at that course considering his top four in his last two starts. Also like the Matsuyama (-128) vs Koepka and Brian Harman (-130) vs Z. Johnson.
Could I get some insight on those picks if you don’t mind. It’ll give me a better feel before I decided to put in the play. Thanks
For all of these match up I look very closely at key statistics that fit for the course they are playing. This week is a bit harder than normal because they are playing a new course this year. Yes, Henley has played well at this tournament the past 2 years but that was at a different course. The Houston Open has not been at this course before. This course has FIVE par 5's so I am big on par 5 scoring and Tony kills the par 5's. The other big stat that I am looking at this week is strokes gained off the tee and Tony is far better in this category too.
I actually like the Matsuyama vs Koepka match up better than the Finau matchup. A few other stats that I have looked at this week are strokes gained approach, ball striking, scrambling, strokes gained around the green and par 4 scoring between 400-450. Most of the par 4's at this course fall into this range. I am also thinking that Koepka might be a bit rusty since he has taken so much time off. I think he is really just knocking off the rust before the Masters next week.
I really like Harman this week as he greatly out performs Zach in strokes gained off the tee, par 5 scoring, par 4 scoring between 400-450, strokes gained around the green and birdie or better.
Being at a new course it does make my model much harder to predict than a tournament that has a strong course history. That is something else that I typically factor in but it doesn't apply this week. I have had my best success in tournament that have a long history at the same course so we know exactly what type of golfer is successful. We will see how it goes this week. Best of luck if you decide to tail on any of them!
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@nk_thekid
For all of these match up I look very closely at key statistics that fit for the course they are playing. This week is a bit harder than normal because they are playing a new course this year. Yes, Henley has played well at this tournament the past 2 years but that was at a different course. The Houston Open has not been at this course before. This course has FIVE par 5's so I am big on par 5 scoring and Tony kills the par 5's. The other big stat that I am looking at this week is strokes gained off the tee and Tony is far better in this category too.
I actually like the Matsuyama vs Koepka match up better than the Finau matchup. A few other stats that I have looked at this week are strokes gained approach, ball striking, scrambling, strokes gained around the green and par 4 scoring between 400-450. Most of the par 4's at this course fall into this range. I am also thinking that Koepka might be a bit rusty since he has taken so much time off. I think he is really just knocking off the rust before the Masters next week.
I really like Harman this week as he greatly out performs Zach in strokes gained off the tee, par 5 scoring, par 4 scoring between 400-450, strokes gained around the green and birdie or better.
Being at a new course it does make my model much harder to predict than a tournament that has a strong course history. That is something else that I typically factor in but it doesn't apply this week. I have had my best success in tournament that have a long history at the same course so we know exactly what type of golfer is successful. We will see how it goes this week. Best of luck if you decide to tail on any of them!
Record: 1-0-3 (+1 unit) Could have been 3-0-1 very easily but Ortiz hit a 34 birdie putt on the final hole to tie Varner and List 3 putted the final hole to allow Lewis to tie him. If those 2 would have gone our way it would have been a really nice day 1. Oh well, I am a believer that these things level out so hopefully they go our way today.
Full Tournament Update:
We are leading in 4 of the match ups and 2 of them are EVEN after day 1, hopefully those will hold on!
Round 2:
Lowry (-135) over Stenson
Hubbard (-125) over Taylor
Varner (-110) over Ortiz
Knox (-120) over Landry
Best of luck to all in any of your bets today!
Mo Money
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Round 1 Update:
Record: 1-0-3 (+1 unit) Could have been 3-0-1 very easily but Ortiz hit a 34 birdie putt on the final hole to tie Varner and List 3 putted the final hole to allow Lewis to tie him. If those 2 would have gone our way it would have been a really nice day 1. Oh well, I am a believer that these things level out so hopefully they go our way today.
Full Tournament Update:
We are leading in 4 of the match ups and 2 of them are EVEN after day 1, hopefully those will hold on!
Record: 3-1 (+1.9 units) Lowry, Hubbard and Knox all came through for another winning day.
Tournament Update:
2 matches have already been won. We are leading in 3, and tied in 1, of the remaining 5 matches. Hopefully those 3 at least can hold on. I would love to take 5 of the 7 matches as wins!
Round 3:
I will be digging in later tonight as soon as matches are released and post any plays either late tonight or as early as I can in the morning.
Mo Money
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Round 2 Update:
Record: 3-1 (+1.9 units) Lowry, Hubbard and Knox all came through for another winning day.
Tournament Update:
2 matches have already been won. We are leading in 3, and tied in 1, of the remaining 5 matches. Hopefully those 3 at least can hold on. I would love to take 5 of the 7 matches as wins!
Round 3:
I will be digging in later tonight as soon as matches are released and post any plays either late tonight or as early as I can in the morning.
Nice to see that someone FINALLY joined in on the winning! Hopefully you played all 4 and didn't miss out on any of those winners! Every day that ends in the positive is a damn good day to me.
Cheers!
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@nk_thekid
Nice to see that someone FINALLY joined in on the winning! Hopefully you played all 4 and didn't miss out on any of those winners! Every day that ends in the positive is a damn good day to me.
What a great tournament for us! I didn't see any values for the 3rd and 4th rounds. Instead of pressing I have been trying really hard to not force a play and wait until my numbers tell me there is a play. Would love to hear if anyone else benefited from the picks. As I said in my very first post on here, I am trying to form a community of people who all help each other in our attempts to take some money from those books. Here are the numbers:
Full Tournament plays: 5-2 (+2.85 units)
1st Round plays: 2-0-3 (+1.34 units)
2nd Round plays: 3-1 (+1.90 units)
TOTAL: 10-3-3 (+6.09 units)
I will take a 6 unit win EVERY WEEK! I don't anticipate a done of plays this next week with the Masters. With a limited field there typically seems like less plays that I like. I believe there are only 92 guys listed in the field and about 20 of those guys are 70 years old or armatures that I don't have the same data on as other guys. Again, I only going to recommend plays that the numbers suggest and not force anything.
Mo Money
1
Houston Open Recap:
What a great tournament for us! I didn't see any values for the 3rd and 4th rounds. Instead of pressing I have been trying really hard to not force a play and wait until my numbers tell me there is a play. Would love to hear if anyone else benefited from the picks. As I said in my very first post on here, I am trying to form a community of people who all help each other in our attempts to take some money from those books. Here are the numbers:
Full Tournament plays: 5-2 (+2.85 units)
1st Round plays: 2-0-3 (+1.34 units)
2nd Round plays: 3-1 (+1.90 units)
TOTAL: 10-3-3 (+6.09 units)
I will take a 6 unit win EVERY WEEK! I don't anticipate a done of plays this next week with the Masters. With a limited field there typically seems like less plays that I like. I believe there are only 92 guys listed in the field and about 20 of those guys are 70 years old or armatures that I don't have the same data on as other guys. Again, I only going to recommend plays that the numbers suggest and not force anything.
As I said in my very first post on here, I am trying to form a community of people who all help each other in our attempts to take some money from those books
I am trying to contact you, please accept my request. I'd like to speak with you in private. Cheers
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As I said in my very first post on here, I am trying to form a community of people who all help each other in our attempts to take some money from those books
I am trying to contact you, please accept my request. I'd like to speak with you in private. Cheers
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