Welcome to the First of
Many PGA Analysis Threads!
Preview:
The
first PGA event of 2015 (Not the official 2014-15 season.... but of the
calendar year) will be underway Friday January 9th. Hosting
the event is The Plantation Course at
the always beautiful Kapalua Resort in Kapalua, Hawaii. The always anticipated, first PGA
event of 2015 will kick off with just 34 of the past seasons PGA
Winners. Of those most notably choosing to skip the event are 4 of the top
10 in terms of OWGR Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, Adam Scott & Justin
Rose.
Field Favourites:
Leading
the field as favorites will be 2 time Masters Champion Bubba Watson (+700) and
WGC-Accenture Match Play Champion Jason Day (+700). Also in the field we
have FedEx Cup Champion Billy Horschel (+2000), last year’s winner Zach Johnson
(+1600) & former back to back winner of this event in 2009/2010 Geoff
Ogilvy (+3300).
Course Details:
This
course has the misconception of being a long bombers paradise. After reviewing
a list of recent winners (Zach Johnson; Dustin Johnson; Steve Stricker;
Jonathan Byrd; Geoff Ogilvy) I think it’s easy to repeat that this is a
misconception. Most tend to look at this course being 7,411 yards and overlook the fact that for a Par 73, that isn't anything too crazy. The historical
swirling winds at this course are much more of a concern then its distance, and
players who are able to stick their irons and make their putts will
be the greatest beneficiaries. Also worth noting is that to win this event, one
must be able to go low. Last year’s winner Zach Johnson finished at 19 under par despite
posting a 3rd round +1.
Betting Approach:
In my
opinion, the best way to approach this type of event in terms of predicting a 4
round winner is to find value in middle class golfers who may be risky
"round to round" but are capable of going off on Birdie Rampages!
Picks:
This
week I will be posting players who I believe have value at their current odds,
and will not be going into too much analysis on recent form since being the
first tournament for many in over a month, and being just after the holidays,
we really can’t rely on recent performance as an indicator for success.
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