ISPS Handa Australian Open

This is a really fun week to bet! Tough course with lots of underwhelming players. At first you should say, give me the guys at the top. But then you would realize none of them are in top form / elite players and the odds are terrible, then you might say, maybe someone else can win! But, this is a really tough course. You need to eliminate most of the field. So all you are left with is good players at great odds.e

Also, easily one player can run away day 1-2, and then can completely fall apart 3-4 here. Great chance to get some guys at a comeback later in the week. 

If you are willing to ask what if the really good players have a bad day 1-2 (when I will wait to buy them), then you can ask, what players are in good form / good 2024 / good fit to course I want to have at great odds from the start?

You get: Scrivener, Paul, J Smith, Van Driel, Elvira, Hillier, Clements, Schwab, Neergard, Southgate, Law, Wu, Aphinbarnrat, Michelluzi, and Pence. Top of the points list, and accuracy, approached, sand, and putt. 

That's it. A card I can feel fantastic about. Probably a good week for fantasy. Which usually means I am completely wrong and get to laugh about this! But just maybe this is the week!

The favorites are Min Woo Lee, Cam Smith, Neimann, Leishman, Herbert, Cam Davis (everyone previous less than 14-1), Perez, Michelluzi, Neergard, Michelluzi and J. Smith. None of these players are elite and many can have a bad week, especially on a tough course. I like my chances to pick these guys up at better odds (who are still in it) or leave off my card if they bombed. 

16-1 J. Smith

22-1 R. Neergard

28-1 Michelluzi

40-1 Paul

40-1 Parry

-----------everything about this line is questionable and I would do a miniscule bet as these odds are laughable-----------

-----------everything below is decent--------------

45-1 Hillier

60-1 Scrivener HUGE BET

70-1 Clements

70-1 Smylie

80-1 Law

90-1 Southgate

110-1 Luck

110-1 Penge

120-1 Van Driel

150-1 A Wu

150-1 Del Solar

200-1 N. Elvira

200-1 Oglivie

300-1 Eccles

300-1 Hopewell

300-1 H. Crowe

400-1 Sonnott

As expected, many players struggled yesterday, including both good players (MWL, Niemann, etc) and all the weak players. Odds boards only think only 34 players can win realistically (only 34 players less than 200-1).

The guys at the top of the board- Cam Smith and Herbert. They are two of the best players in the field, for sure. And they crushed the harder course yesterday with the easier one today. However, they went off early when conditions were easy- soft green and low wind.

As the greens get harder, look for Smith and Herbert to also have some struggling days- a couple days of -2. Many players can catch up. They are in great position, for sure. But we can grab some guys at great odds that were not available yesterday. J Smith. Niemman, MWL, etc. Expect the gap to close spme.

Of course Cam or Herbert can run away. But as I said before, I don't think they are likely to have 4 good days. I like some catch ups and reversals over the next 3 days. 

Typo- Smith and Herbert had the easier course yesterday! Expect them to mean revert on the harder course today in harder conditions.

Best bets after r1:

Min Woo Lee 30-1

Hillier 30-1

J Smith 35-1

Penge 40-1

Niemann 45-1

Michelluzi 50-1

Neergard 120-1

Van Driel 200-1

Hopewell 200-1

Aphinbarnrat 250-1

Luck 300-1

Elvira 300-1

Scrivener 1.5k - 1

Eccles 2k - 1

Bland 2k - 1

I really like Neergard here. At 120-1 and 8 strokes back, he is absolutely live and a good number. If leader sputter and end the day at -10 and Neergard shoots a -4/-5, he will be 5 or 6 strokes back with 2 days to play. I like this number.

1/3 of my picks are in the top 30 after 3 rounds.

problem is they are mostly in the bottom 30!

Herbert went nuts and posted -8 and -6 (and par )so he has a nice lead over most players. 

If he slows down, it could be a fun day tomorrow! But he has great chances.