Mayakoba Classic

I will be having full tournament match ups coming up next week for the Mayakoba Classic. I wanted to take a minute to update my complete record while I had some extra time over the holidays. We have 1 more tournament next week and then a month off before the tour resumes in Hawaii for the Sentry T.O.C. I am looking to play every round of every tournament up through at least the U.S. Open next season when I typically like to take a bit of time off before picking back up in the fall. If you have any questions about my strategy or anything I thought these next few days would be a good time to discuss while we have some time off. Happy to discuss anything, Happy Holiday Season to all!

Tour Championship: 34-26-2  (+5.90 units)

Safeway Open: 22-14-3  (+5.55 units)

Corales: 22-14-3 (+7.29 units)

Sanderson Farms: 18-10-1 (+6.31 units)

Children's Hospital: 20-11-6 (+7.32 units)

Zozo: 14-10-2 (+2.12 units)

Bermuda: 12-11-3 (-.67 units)

Houston: 10-3-3 (+6.09 units)

Masters: 11-13-1 (-3.82 units)

RSM: 13-11-3 (+1.18 units)

TOTAL: 166-120-24 (+37.27 units)

Wow! 

Impressive! I will check back for your picks

Okay guys I have a few picks this week. Would love to hear what you think, good or bad. 

Full Tournament Plays:

Malnati (+125) over Hadwin

Niemann (+100) over Horschel

Conners (-120) over Fowler

English (-122) over Berger

Ortiz (+113) over Todd

1st Round Plays:

Varner (-113) over McCarthy

Reavie (-125) over Leishman

Perez (-127) over Homa

Dahmen (-135) over Noren

Kizzire (+105) over Dufner

Rodgers (-140) over Watney

Best of luck to everyone. Hopefully I will get off to a good start tomorrow. 

Mo Money

Damn I mmissed them. I really like them all

Bol

@gutinstinctus

Sorry, it is hard for me to get picks out very early as it takes a long time to input all the match ups into my model. Life gets busy at times too, often I have to input them after the kids get homework done and off to bed. I wish I could find a faster and easier system so I could post plays earlier. 

I wish you the best of luck in all of your plays!

Wind must be blowing pretty good as there are a lot of bit numbers out there this morning. 

Varner over McCarthy (W)
Reavie over Leishman (L)
Perez over Homa (W)
Grace over Baddeley (W)
Dahmen over Noren (W)
Kizzire over Dufner (L)
Rodgers over Watney (W)

TOTAL: 5--2 (+2.79 units)

I will be taking a look at Round 2 matches later tonight to see if there are any plays that I like. I would love to hear if anyone followed and won a few extra bucks today. If you didn't tail any of the picks I hope you had good luck with your plays and still made it a positive day.

Cheers!

Round 2 Plays: 

Villegas (+113) over Gomez

Malnati (-120) over Burgoon

Kizzire (-105) over Dufner

Grace (-135) over Baddeley

Perez (-140) over Homa

Hoge (-130) over McNealy

Varner (-135) over McCarthy

I hate playing the same matchup on back to back days. Going back to the well with Grace, Perez, Kizzire and Varner. Wish me luck!

Monitoring the lines for: 

Piercy (-155) over McDowell  (if this were to drop to -145 I might take a shot)

Rodgers (-145) over Watney (this would need to get to -135 before I play)

Pretty good day today with the Grace vs Baddeley match up still to finish. Grace has a 3 shot lead with 1 hole to go. I won't count that match up until it is official. Other than that picks went 3-1-2, hoping that will officially be 4-1-2. Currently up 1.65 units on the day, making that +4.44 units after the first 2 days. I should have just paid the juice for those other 2 matches as both Piercy and Rodgers won, could have been a huge day with 2 more wins. Oh well onto the next day. Here are my picks for Round 3. I think the books will offer a few more after the completion of round 2 in the morning so I could add a couple more. I typically don't have this many (+) odd picks but my system is telling me to play them, so I am going to play them. 

Ortiz (+121) over Todd

Huh (+109) over Duncan

Hoffman (+105) over Hubbard

Villegas (+129) over Glover

Dahman (-125) over Knox

Hopefully all of you had a successful day today. Best of luck with any plays you may have for tomorrow.  

Interested in what your system is.. can you give more details?

@kerryb

 Sure I will do my best to explain where I start and let me know what questions that you have. I begin trying to create a model of the course itself. I try to look at each hole and analyze how long the hole is, is it a lay up? Does it have a tight fairway? Are there bunkers and do they even matter or will most players just bomb over them? What is the green like? Small? Large? Different tiers to it? Fast? Slow? I also look at the holes as a group too. How many par 3's, par 4's, and par 5's? Can the par 5's be reached in 2? Can ALL players reach them in 2 or just the longer hitters? Are there par 4 that are short and it will just be a wedge fest because most guys will only leave themselves around 100 yards out? Are the greens small like at Pebble Beach where in order to score you better hit a high percentage of GIR or are greens huge like the Plantation course in Maui for the Tournament of Champions where GIR means nothing and you better be able to hit the ball close to the pin if you are going to score. Are the greens fast like at Augusta where a 3 putt actually come into play? Then I look at the weather. Wind? Wet? Certain guys simply play better in the wind. If it is going to be wet the greens will be soft so I want to play a great ball striker and wedge players that has a chance to stick it tight to the pin. 

Once I figure out what I think it will take to play well at that particular course then I start to find golfers that fit this profile. I look at each match up and try to decide which guy can do those things better. I put a numerical value to each golfer. If the difference between the 2 golfers in the match up is large enough in my mind (meaning I think 1 golfers does those things far better than the other) than I add that to a potential list of plays. I then take my list of potential plays and look at their odds. Obviously there are some match ups that have odds of -190 because it is D. Johnson vs Aaron Baddeley. Clearly D. Johnson would be a better play regardless of the course they are playing. I typically have maybe 5-8 that I throw out because they are so obvious mismatches and I can't consistently make plays with those kind of odds. After narrowing down my list I usually get down to about 4-8 plays per round and for the whole tournament. 

I have been looking into and tracking ALL of the plays that are on my original list to see how I would fair if I were to play them all. I just started tracking that this week and will continue to do so for about 10 full tournaments to see if there is any value in playing all of them regardless of how high the odds are. After the first 2 rounds of this tournament my original list would have gone 20-6-5 (+11.8 units). Now I know that 1 loss in a match up with -200 odds would kill the profit so I am cautiously optimistic with this, hence why I want to track it for a full 10 tournaments to see if this holds up or proves to be to volatile.  

If you have any questions just let me know, would be happy to discuss anything in more detail if you would like. Also, if you like any of the picks let me know. If you disagree with one of the picks let me know what too, but please tell me why you don't like it other than just saying "that pick sucks."

Best of luck in your parlays, hoping that you hit it big!

All good stuff there.. are you doing all of this by hand (writing it out), or using a computer to tally up picks? I mean, for the course layout, each week a new course is plugged into your numerical values for each player? 

I think you've got a good system going, by raw data alone, the way to see who is by the numbers doing well. I generally use a few numbers to compare and watch all the tv coverage (mostly) to see how players are reacting before making picks. I'll definitely check out your picks and give feedback, so far I've liked your picks, was agreeing with most of them.

If you're using some sort of computer program to make picks, I'd be very interested to try them with the 3ball matches. Maybe we can work something out.. I'll post the 3ball matches and you'll run your system on them. Daily bets might be difficult to do, but tourney bets could be easy enough.

Good luck with your picks, lemme know what we can do if anything..

@kerryb

I wish I had a program to plug everything into but I am not nearly that tech savvy. I use a computer to tally up the numbers, but I have to input the initial numbers into system first. Yes, I start fresh each week with each new tournament. During the next month I am going to try to lay out everything for the first 4 tournaments of the new year so that all I have to do it plug in the field when it is released. I also use the "eye test" after watching guys play too. I don't want anyone to think that my plays are solely based off the numbers. There are many times when my model says to play a certain guy but after watching the first few rounds I will fade him.

I would be happy to work with you but I am not sure how much extra time I have to look at your 3 ball match ups. My book doesn't always offer 3 balls so I really haven't dug into them. What book do you use if you don't mind me asking? I am on the West coast, are you in the same time zone? I do most of my work at night as often the tourney starts at 4:00 am my time so I rarely do any work in the morning, might be different for you based on where you are. 

Let me know what you are thinking, always happy to discuss plays. 

I use william hill, I'm pretty sure the website will have the 3ball matches listed for anyone to see. I think the 3ball plays are somewhat the same thru most books that offer them, although I generally just use william hill. One day I looked on fox bet, they were identical, with very small differences in odds.

I'll post the tourney 3ball bets when they come out for the next tourney, usually they will post them on tues-wed. Daily ones usually are posted 9-10pm est (i'm in nj) and that would be tough to time up to run thru your system. I could post them on your thread, and if there is any time to run them thru, go for it. 

I don't want any extra work for you, so lets just play by ear to see if something can work out..

Interesting read Mo

How much do you factor in past performance at the course for a specific player? Some guys just love certain courses whether the stats fit the bill for the info or not.

I don't do statistical info on my 1st round leader wagers but guess I should by tee time. I handicap the players for the course but if somehow I don't have any/many players for early tee times I always include a few. Has helped me majority of the time if wind picks up or gets worse as the round goes on.

@fightingillini

 I am glad that you mentioned that. How a guy plays at a certain event is a BIG deal. Exactly as you said, there are guys all the time that just show up for certain event regardless of how they are currently playing. I also factor in recent form. Typically after I have added up all of the stats that I am interested in for a tournament then I factor in recent form and course history into that. 

Thanks for bringing that up, I forgot to mention that. 

@MoMoney2

Impressive indeed.

great work!

I think we have been in the same golf pool (Andy)?

ive cashed 2nd place a few times and have noticed MoMoney up there near the top often.  
is that you?

Yes that is me. Fantasy league hosted by Andy and KJ? My real name is Adam. I remember you too, always near the top of the leaderboard  and love to make H2H bets with Andy correct? Their podcast is what really got me into H2H betting and I have been building/tweaking a system to help me make those picks for about 2 years now. Good to see you in here. 

Small world.

I only play h2h

posted Hovland v Grillo today rd4 

Bwt looks good up 4 on back 9

im good friends with Andy

good to see u here too

@MoMoney2

 Full updated record for the tournament:

Full Tourney Plays: 2-1-2 (+1 unit)

1st Round Plays: 5-2 (+2.79 units)

2nd Round Plays: 4-1-2 (+2.65 units)

3rd Round Plays: 0-3-2 (-3.07 units) OUCH!

4th Round Plays: NONE

TOTAL: 11-7-6 (+3.37 units) 

Could have been a REALLY nice week but instead it turns into an okay week. I will never complain with a positive week but that could have been so much better. I plan to do some research and attempt to plan to really dig into the first 3 tournaments. I was at the tournament of champions 2 years ago and have played that course myself so I have a pretty good idea of what kind of players I will be targeting in that one, only problems is there are usually such limited plays since there is only about 30 guys playing. I should have a bunch of plays for the Sony Open week 2, but will likely back off in week 3 with the American Express as that is played over 3 courses, I hate that! If any of you want to chat about research or strategy over our small break just reach out to me I would love to discuss courses and strategy. 

Mo Money

Got the tourney 3ball for dubai odds, if you'd like to take a look. On a new thread.

@kerryb

 I don't dive into European Tournaments as of now. It takes me way to long to do PGA events and once they get going again in Jan. it is nearly impossible for me to do. I will take a look and follow some of your plays for this week in Dubai. 

No prob.. since this is the only tourney going this week (beside qbe, but that doesn't have 3ball), putting all research to over the pond. Don't follow the ladies, so probably nothing there.