Mayakoba Digest

Whats up fellas. 

Last tourney was a good one for me basically because I was able to middle heavily on my Kisner bet. Now lets go very quickly through Mayakoba. If you want any more depth on anything, comment and Ill stop by.  

I. COURSE 101: 

1. Very short course. 

2. Even when the fairways are wideish and the rough is not a problem, the course has a lot of hazards that will penalize bad misses. 

3. Greens are paspalum (sort of bermuda). Slow and easy greens.  

II. CONDITIONS

I don´t trust the weather forecasts on coastal courses that much. Wind shows up from nowhere and changes all your projections, but we have to live with that. 

1. It looks as if wind will be there, but it doesn´t look terrible -as it was in Corales e.g.- 10mph

2. Rain is projected at different stages. Rain makes this course play even easier. 

III. GOLFER TRAITS FOR THIS COURSE

1. Accuracy off the tee is important. You do not need to be the most accurate guy in the world. But we want to avoid those guys that twice per round are missing badly off the tee. One of those balls will find a hazard. 

2. Bombing is almost irrelevant in this course. Nothing limits a bomber more than the risk of hazards. You will see that Tony Finau, even when he is relatively straight with his driver, will be playing irons from the tee on a lot of holes. 

3. Conditions seem easy. I don´t think scrambling will matter much. Unless the winds show up big, players will be hitting a lot of greens. 

4. If there is one tournament in the schedule where putting has a premium, it is this one. SG approach is still much more important obviously, but good putters have an advantage. 

I will post my picks briefly. I actually decided to make this writeup to summarize everything that is in my head. Now I will go through my options and bet the right odds. 

1. Carlos Ortiz: @65.0. On most sites he is listed at 50. I got him at 65 at one exchange. Id gladly take him at 50 also. 

Ortiz was the runner up last year. He won his most recent appearance, playing great, beating no other than the current Masters Champion and World No. 1. He has been very solid with his approach. And he can get HOT with the putter. 

And what I like the most of Ortiz, is that he decided not to play at Seaside and he could not play the Masters. This is entirely a guess, but I feel as if he has been focusing solely on Mayakoba for a full month now. He has been at Riviera Maya for a full week now, tuning up the distances and his game for this. 

2. Malnati: @140. The books have not adjusted to Malnati. He will tear your liver apart. He gets in heaters where he birdies 4 out of 5. And then makes an abusrd double bogey after 3 putting from 13 feet. That is because of his aggresive putting nature. On these greens, Malnati should thrive. If you followed him at Seaside and Corales, he was doing great after 1 round, but when the wind picked up badly he struggled. Lets hope we stay with the mild winds forecast.  I have also bet Malnati to win the first round. The guy tends to start hot. 

3. Camilo Villegas. I do not love this one, but I bet him @200 earlier in the week. He has been playing incredibly well tee to green, but that putt is awful and putting is the key for this tournament. Maybe time to go to the 2010 antics and putting routine of getting to ground level. I took him solely based on his odds, since I feel he should be no longer than 100-1. 

**Other golfers I like: 

1. Abraham Ancer. Very accurate off the tee. As motivated - maybe even more- as Ortiz. However, I cannot pay 20-1 for him. Thats more than 3 times shorter than the Ortiz number I got. 

2. Russell Henley. From a tee to green fitness to the course, this is the best guy on the field. The problem with Henley is that he cannot putt and the putt needs to show up this week. So, can´t bet him at 20-1 or shorter. 

3. JT: Clearly he is the best one out there. The X factor is the motivation and course knowledge. And also the fact that JT is that guy I talked about that twice per round hits his 3 wood off the tee, 150 yards right. 

4. Brendon Todd: Recent form is the only reason why he aint in my card. He is a guy I may look to in-play if he is playing well his irons. 

5. Niemann and Munoz: I especially like Niemann. When he is not worried about distance and hits that gentle fade with his drive, he thrives. Great with the wedges also. But Niemann is not a great putter, and struggles more in bermuda (which is very similar to paspalum).

GL ALL

Like Kizzier at 60/1 for a tourney winner.. Going thru the three ball round match bets, will post picks on other thread.

Niemann is playing for his cousin this week, cousin needs spinal cord surgery. He is motivated.

Niemann can sink 4-5 birdies in a row quick if on fire. I will hope he fades but not be surprised if he heats up more.

gut-Man I feel your pain on Malnati. He is consistently inconsistent. Definitely didn't see that coming from him after the 1st round. I have a handful of guys I look at like Malnati that are strong contenders for certain courses and they end up shooting bottom 5 type rounds.

@kerryb

 Yup. Although last tourney he was already doing this stuff of donating everything and 15k per birdie. And he didnt do well till Sunday. 

I hear you lol

He is on my list on certain courses that is going to shoot a 63 or 73 and nothing in between :)