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Maybank Malaysia Tourney

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Legend
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Joined: Dec, 2001
Posts: 85256
Posted: #1
forecast weather: partly cloudy and temperature low 70's and the low 90's with wind NW @ 5-10 mph Thursday & Friday. same Saturday & Sunday BUT with 60% chance of afternoon rain showers

"to win" plays (all to return around $500)

Jeunghun Wang 20-1
Kiradech Ahpibarnrat 28-1
Thomas Aiken 30-1
Peter Uihlein 30-1
Pablo Larrazabal 50-1
Joakim Lagergrin  50-1
Pablo Larrazabal 50-1
Hao Tong Li 60-1
Graeme Storm 60-1
David Lipsky 60-1
Graeme Storm 60-1
Miguel Tabuena 75-1
Chris Paisley 100-1
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 100-1
Ben Hebert 125-1

somewhat surprised NO Sam Brazel odds this week other than "field". WON @ Hong Kong and I would think he would be about the same as "Stormy" who WON the South Africa Open

looking for a "bounce back" from BOTH Jeunghun Wang and Ahpibarnrat after getting caught in the "haboob" last week in Dubai

tourney match play bets (all to win $30 ex to win $50 on Ahpibarnrat and Wang)

Tommy Fleetwood -110 over Danny Willett
Thomas Aiken -115 over Ross Fisher
Nacho Elvira -110 over Jorge Campillo
Pablo Larrazabal -105 over Victor Dubuisson
Joakim Lagergrin -110 over Kyung-Tae Kim
Kiradech Ahpibarnrat even over Thongchai Jaidee
Jeunghun Wang -120 over Anirban Lahiri



 
Legend
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Joined: Dec, 2001
Posts: 85256
Posted: #2
decided to "buy out" Nacho Elvira -110 over Jorge Campillo with a Campillo -110 because although Nacho is playing decent in recent tourneys, Jorge was better @ Hong Kong and DP World and also finished T-4th this event last season

also added a small "to win" sprinkle on Jorge Campillo 60-1
 
MVP
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 16279
Posted: #3
 
Legend
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Joined: Dec, 2001
Posts: 85256
Posted: #4
well Jay Wang and "A Fat Barn Rat" just KILL me this week. BOTH CUT and Wang especially just looked "disinterested" when I watched him on the back side last night. glad I "bought out" Nacho as he stunk. got lucky with Aiken as he was a CUT @ [even] BUT Ross Fisher also CUT @ [+1] so that graded a WIN.

couple of my "to win" plays, David Lipsky @ 60-1 [-5/-9] and Mike Lorenzo-Vera @ 100-1 [-7/-9] "in range" tied for 3rd BUT I don't think anyone is catching either Bernd Wiesberger or Danny Willett. "Weeze the Cheese" shot an 11 birdie, including 9 in a ROW, 2 bogie [-9] the 2nd round for a tourney [-12] with Willett one back @ [-11]. I just do NOT see either "blowing up" on the weekend
 
Legend
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Joined: Dec, 2001
Posts: 85256
Posted: #5
Jesus CHRIST!!! HOW many TIMES am I goona have some guy shoot a BOMBER final round to ROB my AZZ!!! it was freeking Alex Noren at Nedbank with a final round [-9] 63 to beat 3rd round leader Jeunghun Wang and NOW this bird Fabrizio Zanotti, who was "cut bait" the last three tourneys and a "field hand" here, shoots a [-9] 63, with 3 birdies and an eagle the last 6 holes, to "ace out" my 60-1 shot David Lipsky by one shot!!!

pretty crappy tourney for me with BOTH Wang and Ahpibarnrat losing their matchn plays as CUTS but at least I got some back with Larrazabal when  Dubuisson WD'ed after the 7th hole 3rd round AND Aiken was "the dog with less fleas" vs  Fisher BOTH CUT but [even] vs [+1]

on to Perth, Australia. Louis Oosthuizen [-16] last years winner with Alex Levy, who got 4th this week, was 2nd with as final round [-6] for [-15]. Oosthuizen returns this year along with Alex Noren, Thor Olesen and San Brazel. did NOT see Levy on the entry list but would be VERY surprised IF he didn't play
 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2014
Posts: 1555
Posted: #6
Lipsky was a tough loss. 
Was watching and he looked like the winner. 
Willett choked 
Levy got close then choked. 
Weisberger was tied with Zanotti on par 5 18th but hit a wayward drive and had to lay up. But gotta hand it to Zanotti who hit the green in 2 and nailed medium range putt. 
That put him up 2 with only Lipsky to finish last 2 holes
Fell asleep so didn't see Lipsky finish but checking scores I see Lipsky birdied 17 to get w/I 1 but couldn't birdie the relatively easy par 5 18th so he didn't get it done. 

My takeaway from the tourney is that Willett is rounding back to form. He was a good go against the 2nd half of last season. His body language was much better this week and so was his game. I watched him a lot last year because I had a race to Dubai future on Willett that would've paid off big if he held on but Stenson caught him 

Another takeaway here is that the ever steady Jaidee and also Lahiri always play well in that part of the world. Gonna keep notes on that

Tough loss. Lipsky was up 2 strokes late and looked like he'd be the winner. Get it back next week  
 
Legend
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Joined: Dec, 2001
Posts: 85256
Posted: #7
Fell asleep so didn't see Lipsky finish but checking scores I see Lipsky birdied 17 to get w/I 1 but couldn't birdie the relatively easy par 5 18th so he didn't get it done.

Lipsky hit an iron into the green side "cat box" on #18 BUT recovered for a makeable  putt for his birdie to tie Zanotti, the kid leaves it SHORT which is a MORTAL SIN in golf

was VERY surprised that Willett kind of "blew up" the final round and "Weeze the Cheese" really didn't make a move. IF Lipsky lost I thought it would be to one of those two. Zanotti hadn't done ANYTHING all last season and was a "field hand" for this tourney

I will be interested to see Alex Levy's odds next week in Perth. a solid 4th this week and was 2nd there last year. he WON the Porsche European Open last season. also the ChiCom Haotong Li who tied Willett for 5th this week with a closing round [-7] 65. he WON @ Beijing last season and had a recent 2nd @ the Turkish Open
 
 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2014
Posts: 1555
Posted: #8
Rat
Was reading Levy's post tourney comments and he said it's good to go into my 8 week break playing well. So no Levy next week. 
If I was him I'd change my schedule and keep playing while I'm hitting it well. 
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