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#1
On the surface, it is understandable why Graeme McDowell has been bet up from -140 to -160 in many shops vs Martin Kaymer. In Kaymer's last two starts, The Open and Bridgestone, McDowell has throttled Kaymer by a whopping 18 and 15 strokes. That kind of result makes the price look cheap. However a closer look at the factors surrounding the PGA leads me to believe wrong golfer is favored.
Lets not forget that what Kaymer did in North Carolina only 7 weeks ago was nothing short of legendary. To play Pinehurst in 9 under with only two other players in the red 8 shots back shows the kind of elite performance that few golfers are capable of and that fears on the heels of a Players win the previous month. Then came the two subsequent tournaments where Kaymer failed to challenge. But if you saw Kaymer's press conference from Valhalla Monday, it would be hard to come away from it believing Kaymer won't be in contention on Sunday, both from the facts he presented and his tone. Kaymer revealed that he had shoulder issues that arose just prior to The Open and plagued him for the four days. Furthermore he admits that he had a bit of a "hangover" after the US Open and did not practice prior to the British. That effort has been remedied by the work he's put in of late. And last week he had many positives to take away after an opening 77 put him out of contention. Kaymer also revealed his fondness for this course after he had the luxury of coming with Faldo in the 2008 Ryder Cup. Kaymer attributed his readiness for Ryder Cup stardom in 2010 from his experiences as a replacement at Valahalla in 2008. With a physically and mentally healthy Kaymer in the tee box, we are talking about a player as good as anyone in the game...McIlroy included.
It is hard to say anything negative about Graeme McDowell. He is a consummate professional who shows up each week and uses all of his talent, and he's typically been a play-on golfer. But he does come into this track taking the less-traveled path of the A-listers by playing for a fourth week in a row (Furyk, Kuchar, Schwartzel, the most notable others). Also, with a premium on high soft second shots this week, his 20 yards less distance off the tee is a factor. One could also expect McDowell to be 3 to 4 shots off Kaymer on the 12 par 5's in the four days.
McDowell certainly does figure to make the cut though and this play should last the four days. But with the edges in play and the back-class and focus that the German possesses, count me in at +140.
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GL
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