1-2 last week at Colonial, now 36-31-2 (+6.73 Units) for the 2019/20 season.
RBC Heritage 72-Hole Matchups
Gary Woodland (-101) over Hideki Matsuyama - 1.5 Units
- I liked what I saw from Woodland last week at Colonial, he just couldn't get anything going on Sunday and fell back to 9th. Neither player has much of a history at Harbour Town, with Woodland's last start in 2013 and Hideki teeing it up once in 2014 and missing the cut. However, Woodland is able to shape the ball both ways which is required here. Positioning off the tee is much more important this week as the bombers are neutralized. This is Matsuyama's first week back after the layoff, so Woodland gives us something to go off from last week, whereas it's a bit of a guessing game where Hideki's game is at.
Joel Dahmen (-122) over Jason Day - 1 Unit
- Have to lay a bit of juice here but Day's game was clearly rusty last week, with -1.03 strokes gained off the tee and -1.06 strokes gained approach the green en route to a missed cut. Dahmen isn't flashy but is very consistent, finishing 19th in the first week back at Colonial and was 16th in his debut at Harbour Town last year. I think you can throw the few decent finishes from Day here in years' past out the window. Give me the sharper player.
Branden Grace (+119) over Tony Finau - 1 Unit
- While I believe Finau is definitely the better player, this course just sets up better for Grace, who has a 1st, 7th, and 11th in his last 4 starts here. Finau was pretty steady in the first week back finishing 23rd, but his normal strengths do not give him an advantage here. Grace is a much better scrambler, which bodes well. Similar to Woodland, he was rock solid through 3 rounds last week but ultimately faded on Sunday. I like him at plus money this week.
Rafa Cabrera Bello (+115) over Byeong-Hun An - 0.5 Unit
- Small play on Rafa over An. Similar reasoning for the Grace play, I just feel this track suits his game much more. Rafa finished 16th here last year, gaining 1.72 strokes over the field. An missed the cut by a lot, going 7 over through 2 rounds. Cabrera Bello fired 4 rounds in the 60's last week at Colonial and I'll ride his short game edge over An here this week.
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