I know, after the Masters probably I will be the only person around here for a "mediocre" tournament. Still, I think some longshots will offer a lot of value.
Webb and Sungjae will be bet heavily by the public. Sungjae more than anyone else after his finish. However they must be drained. As a favorite Id rather take Hatton.
But, my approach will be one or two bombs much much lower in the favorite scale. I´ll let you know later on the week
There have been huge payouts lately especially in the "mediocre" tourneys like this. The last 3 winners of this tourney are Howell III, Cook and Duncan. It goes back farther than this but those guys are probably in the 70/1 to 170/1 range alone this year. I tend to play 1st round leaders, throw in a few outright winners at longer odds/more value and sometimes throw in a few other wagers at the beginning of the tourney. Usually the only time I do in tourney is to pick an outright winner after a round or two of golf.
Webb is a horse for this course. Lost in playoff hole last year (shot -19) and was 3rd the year before that (shot -18). Guy loves this course but no way am I wagering DJ odds on this guy. Best case scenario he is a little farther back after 1st or 2nd round and possibly add him at higher odds.
I am not touching any of the top 10 or more guys starting out this tourney for the win. The first guy I am using is Sebastian Munoz at 45/1. I love this guy and made me a brinks truck a few tourneys back. Probably also means he won't show up this week.lol Like you have said, adding value is key. I won't be surprised if Simpson or a 100/1 wins it. Best of luck to you this week and will check out your picks later in the week 
@fightingillini
I like Munoz, and even when his odds have been shortened, the books still have not caught up with the talent he has.
I also agree with everything you mention about Webb. This is the classic Webb course (both Plantation and Seaside). Very short. Large greens. Not so easy greens. So accuracy is everything here with your 1st and your second shots.
I am not going to take anyone who played the Masters. My picks are the following:
1. Rusell Henley. The guy is on a heater and could not play the Masters. 30-1 is way too good to pass.
2. Kevin Kisner. 48.0 odds. Im not fully convinced to this bet, but Kisner is another short course specialist who has done excellent on this tourney in the past.
3. Peter Malnati. 150.0 is wayyyy too long for him. He was close to stealing the tourney from Garcia less than a month ago. He was 1st round leader at Bermuda. Great putter. His weakest part of the game is the driver, which is not that important for this tourney.
Other guys that I liked but will pass are: Redman, Sam Burns, Norlander and Denny McCarthy. I cant make the same mistake I made in the Masters, and want some ammo left to fire in play bullets.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
