Sawgrass Matchups

Huge board to pick from for the Players. Locking in Chris Kirk (-107) over Rickie Fowler at pinnacle. Expecting that one to move.

Fowler, despite a rally on Friday to make the cut at Bay Hill, returned to his struggles on the weekend, shooting 76-77. Despite a win and a 2nd here, Rickie has been feast or famine otherwise. Until he can put 4 rounds together, will continue to be a fade. Kirk off a solid 8th place showing at Bay Hill, quietly has returned to his steady form. Only 1 missed cut at Sawgrass in 9 starts. Average true strokes gained of +1.08 across 31 rounds vs +0.72 over 30 rounds for Fowler (Datagolf).

Will add more later.

Add:

Francesco Molinari (-117) over Bubba Watson

- Willing to look past the MC at Bay Hill last week by Molinari, as a lot of players struggled. Prior to that, his game was rounding back into form, with 3 top 10's in the 4 prior starts. Has 4 top 10's at Bay Hill and a solid +1.57 averaged strokes gained across 29 rounds. Bubba has openly said Sawgrass does not fit his eye - and does not have a finish better than 37th in 12 starts. No real recent form to be concerned about either. Worth the small price on Molinari.

Byeong Hun An (+125) over Brian Harman

- More of a value play really. Think this should be near a pick'em so will gladly take An at +125. Harman finished 8th here in 2019 and has a +0.38 averaged strokes gained over 27 rounds. An not as large of a sample size, but +1.47 SG over 11 rounds.

Kevin Na (-104) over Harris English

- English was decent last week after falling off in the few events prior. However, he cannot seem to figure out Sawgrass, with 6 straight missed cuts at The Players. Had the choice of Sam Burns or Na to go against him and opted for Na. Some mixed results here with 3 top 10's, but someone who plays the weekend most starts - good for matchups.

Add:

Pat Perez (-116) over Stewart Cink

- Believe Cink's flash in the pan from the fall has come to an end. Neither has a great track record here so taking who I think is the better player.

Alex Noren (-122) over Wyndham Clark 

- Noren very steady player and always solid in the wind should it pick up. +1.94 average strokes gained across 10 rounds at Sawgrass. Clark a good young player but hasn't proven it on a tough course against a loaded field. Debut at the players.

Charley Hoffman (-106) over Shane Lowry

- Going back to the well with a fade on Lowry after cashing against him last week. Just doesn't seem to be in his form from 2019. Hoffman starting to find it with 2 top 10s in his last 3 starts.

Panther

Like the writeups.  Thanks.

Wish I had the Kirk v Fowler matchup.  LOVE THAT.  Unfortunately no matchup on that for me.

Also agree on Hoffman v Lowry

Disagree on An v Harman 

I also went against English but I took Ancer -125

You two are without a doubt the best bettors on this forum. Some reasoning, and good reasoning behind your bets. 

Sawgrass is all about accuracy, and your picks reflect that at least you know the course and you know the guys you are betting. 

I like all of them. Especially the ones against Ricky. Of course there is an infimous chance that he erupts, but what has anybody seen in the last year and maybe even 2 years to make us think that he is even close to making a comeback.